Börsipäev 15. märts - anthrax Pentagonis ja Toompeal
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http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/article.php?id=9977875
Äraostmatud ja äraostetavad ühinesid. -
Advokaat, poliitik ega prostituut ei tahaks küll kunagi olla.
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sempo, miks? Nii on ju kõige lihtsam elada. :-))
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Sempo, miks Sa prostituute solvad? Nad teevad oma tööd ju väga ausalt, eriti võrreldes selle seltskonnaga, kellega Sa neid kõrvutad.
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Ma ka prostituute ja Res Publicat ei võrdleks. Prostad tavaliselt ei luba, vaid tegutsevad :)
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Postimehe arvamus asjast:
http://www.postimees.ee/150305/esileht/arvamus/160241.php -
Lisaks poliitikale ka veidi aktsiaturgudest:
Rev Shark:
Play This Market -- but Have an Escape Plan
3/15/05 8:27 AM ET"Self-confidence is the first requisite to great undertakings."
-- Samuel Johnson
This has been a market lacking the confidence and conviction needed to shrug off worries and concerns about interest rates and oil prices. The bulls are just too nervous and uncertain to pull off anything other than an occasional buying spike. They have been incapable of follow-through and seem to keep one worried eye on oil prices.
The bears have been almost equally wimpy. They have plenty of ammunition at their disposal, particularly interest rate pressures, but they can't quite manage to break this market. It bends and threatens to crack but the bulls seem to do just enough to keep things from falling apart.
This see-saw battle is creating an increasingly explosive technical picture. Sooner or later one side is going to seize control of this market and a big move will occur. Many traders are frustrated and very anxious to see some sort of sustained momentum, either up or down. At present only those with very short time frames can manage to do much.
I'm getting rather tired of talking about oil but we simply can't deal with this market right now without watching it very closely. The market action has been very tightly correlated with the action in crude oil and some of the best trading action is in that sector. Yesterday small-cap oils paid off big if you caught them early in the day. The momentum money has few other choices and is likely to stay focused on this group.
For a while now I've been talking about the possibility of a rotation out of groups such as steel and homebuilders, and into technology. That has not developed to any great extent. Technology has had some relative strength lately but it's been too weak to be called a rotation.
Despite the lame action in technology we can't be too quick to dismiss the rotation theory. There are other groups that may benefit if cash is looking for a place to go. This morning, biotechnology looks like a candidate following the good news from Genetech (DNA:NYSE) and some big upgrades. That may help stir up the group. Retailers are also showing signs of life but they probably will have a much tougher time if interest rate worries continue to build.
It is a choppy, uncertain market, and it's struggling to hold on to key support areas. We may continue to hold or even bounce a little but if oil and interest rates don't relent soon there is a good chance things will fall apart. So be an opportunist -- but be ready to run for safety.
We have a mixed start this morning. Oil is steady, the dollar weak and gold strong. Overseas markets did little of note.
Good luck and go get 'em.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Gary B. Smith:
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Comcast and TiVo Announce Strategic Partnership (3.83 ) , TIVO eelturul +50%
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TIVO eelturul +54%, teatati strateegilisest partnerlusest Comcastiga.
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TIVO kõikvõimalikest diilidest on turul juttu olnud juba päris pikka aega, üksinda üritades oleks TIVO-l väga raske edu saavutada. Comcast on väga suure kliendibaasiga üle USA ning see pakub suurepärase võimaluse TIVO müügiks.
Tasub arvestada, et konkreetseid numbreid diili kohta veel ei paista. -
Eriti naljakas on see, et 6 kuu eest saatis TIVO CMCSA pikalt, kui see koostööd pakkus. Täna leidub veel analüütikuid, kelle TIVO hinnasihid on $20 kandis :)
sB -
Gapping Up
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: PDLI +4.9% (also Smith Barney upgrade), ABIX +15%, IOTN +10%, SONS +3.9%, CMVT +2.1%, LEH +2%, RCL +2%... Other News: DNA +4.8% (positive Avastin news; Piper upgrade; Jefferies upgrade; tgt raised to $100 at CSFB), MDKI +49% (to merge with DCAI), TIVO +26% (Tivo and Comcast are discussing a partnership - WSJ), VIAC +7.3% (co and Genzyme announce collaboration agreement), CTIC +6.4%, ZOLL +5.6% (Piper upgrade), L +4.1% (to spin-off Ascent Media and Discovery), ORCT +3.9% (extends yesterday's 10% move), ONXX +3.3% (up on Avastin news; Lehman upgrade), PIXR +2.5% (new Disney CEO may mend fences; release of Incredibles on DVD today).... Under $3: CLTK +34% (to sell assets to Mimix), REDI +13% (signs 20 customers), GNTA +12% (leukemia drug gets orphan drug status), CMGI +11%, CIEN +2.6% (Smith Barney upgrade).
Gapping Down
DCAI -18% (to merge with MDKI), ZICA -8% (reports Q4), GEOI -7.6% (profit taking after 44% move yesterday), ABLE -3.2% (profit taking after 25% move yesterday), HNR -3.2%, BOOM -2.3% (profit taking after 12% move yesterday). -
Sentiment on turul hetkel halb. Genentech (DNA) ja Tivo (TIVO) pakkusid vaid hetkelist optimismipuhangut. Asjad ei liigu üldse nii nagu peaks.
sB -
DNA käis vahepeal juba miinuses, tasub hoida radaril.
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Anthrax Pentagonis (link) hirmutab turgu, kuigi ilmselt see vaid põhjus müügiks (vt. Oliveri vihje sentimendi kohta).
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Üks positiivne asi oli täna, vähemalt dollari jaoks.
//Net capital inflows into U.S. assets in January were $91.5 billion, the Treasury reported.
That clearly exceeded analysts' rough forecasts, which were for a net inflow of between $55 billion and $75 billion// -
Praegu kindlasti juba hilja siseneda, kuid anthraxi aktsiad rallivad - CPHD +8.6% ja AVAN +6.0%
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Vaxgen (VXGN) siis ka veidi üleval.
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Pankrotistunud WorldComi tippjuht Bernie Ebbers, kes ehitas firma praktiliselt nulliks suureks telekomigigandiks, mõisteti täna süüdi pettuses. Tulemuseks kuni 85 aastat vanglakaristust. Üldlevinud arvamus on, et üsna õiglane karistus, raamatupidamispettus pidi talle kindlasti teada olema.
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Infi CNBC-st
mentioned that Avastin will cost $80,000 to $90,000 per patient for a extra two months. Provenge costs at most $45,000 for 4 1/2 months longer to live without the harm of chemo
plus rumor, et Bristol tahab DNDN-i ära osta? -
kust on pärit rumor, DNDN ja Bristol?
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13:35 TIVO TiVo upgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan following Comcast deal
14:02 TIVO TiVo downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at FBR -
Ma eriti ei usuks mingisuguseid CNBC poole levitatavaid kuulujutte. Näiteks Imclone (IMCL) ülesostmisest BMY poolt on juba räägitud aastaid. Ja BMY omab 20% sellest biotechist.
sB -
re:TIVO
mõlemad olid head mängud, nii up- kui downgrade. -
Samas ma usun, et 2005 toob endaga kaasa massilise väiksemate/suuremate biotechide ülesostmise farmade poolt. Näiteks USA farmad saavad soodsatel tingimustel välismaalt koju tuua 70-80 mld seal teenitud dollarit. Mingi osa sellest läheb kindlasti firmaostudeks. Ainuüksi Pfizer (PFE) ostis eelmisel aastal 50-60 dev. stage tegijat ning lubas sellel aastal seda numbrit ületada.
Pisike biotech on viimastel kuudel kõvasti pihta saanud ja näiteks CSFB pakkus täna DNA Avastini uudis võiks kogu sektorit elavdada. Teisest küljest usun aga jälle, et seda ei juhtu enne kui naftaaktsiate ralli läbi saab ja põletada saanud turuosalised teisi allapekstud sektoreid ostma tulevad.
Ja ma ikka ootan veel ka seda, et MRK ostaks SGP ära. Vioxxi ümber toimunu lükkas asja edasi (ootasin uudist Q4:04 juba), kuid MRK'i enda juht on varsti lahkumas ning asemele pakutaksegi SGP Hassanit. Saab näha.
long bunch of phrma/biotechs.
sB -
Kas DNDN tulemustele ka mängitakse?
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2005 a. teine pool tõotab tulla tihe ülevõtmiste aeg, nimelt hakkavad siis saabuma suurte farmade välismaal hoitavad rahad. Kokku oli seda ca $70-80mld. Suure tõenäosusega võib siis ka DNDN kosilase saada, kuna hetkel neil ei ole siduvaid lepinguid.
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Fit,
5c siit ja 5c sealt? :D
sB -
Umbes nii. with size.
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Millal see DNDN piece oli CNBC's? minutipealt kui võimalik?
Krt, ma ei mängi seda eriti, ei jõua jälgida kõrvadega. konkurents ka kõva. -
chkp kukub,kas on callide aeg
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CHKP graafik piisavalt koledaks läinud, üle tänase pole mõtet seda hoida, langusvõimalus suurem.
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HPC tuleb vist kah kinni panna
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HPC kohta Pro all.
