Börsipäev 28. märts - USA börsid avatakse 17.30 - Investeerimine - Foorum

28.03.2005 16:53

Sellel nädalal algab siis kauplemine USA turul tavapärasest tund aega hiljem ehk 17.30 ja lõppeb 24.00, järgmisel nädalal keeravad ameeriklased oma kella ja harjumuspärane rütm taastub.

Rev Shark:

Substantial Challenges as the Week Begins
3/28/05 8:32 AM ET

"Don't wait until everything is just right. It will never be perfect. There will always be challenges, obstacles and less than perfect conditions. So what? Get started now. With each step you take, you will grow stronger and stronger, more and more skilled, more and more self-confident and more and more successful." -- Mark Victor Hansen

The market always has challenges, obstacles and less-than-perfect conditions to deal with but they are times when conditions are even more adverse than usual. This is one of those times, with both fundamental and technical obstacles to contend with.

The market's technical problems aren't particularly difficult to see. All of the major indices are in downtrends and there is little, if any, technical support other than the 200-day simple moving average. We are slightly "oversold," which simply means we have gone down faster than is reasonable and we're likely to see some sort of bounce, but make no mistake that the momentum is to the downside and there is no reason to expect a sudden reversal other than hope.

The fundamental difficulties facing the market are equally easy to understand. The FOMC made it clear that inflationary pressures are growing and the pace of interest rate increases is likely to pick up. The market has not fully priced this in even though it has been clear for some time that it was likely to occur.

Even though the market is supposed to be a "discounting" mechanism that looks forward many months it doesn't always do a very good job of it. That seems to be particularly true now with the market seemingly caught by surprise by the sudden focus on inflation and rates -- when there were already so many signs, such as commodity prices, pointing to impending problems.

Although inflation and rates have taken center stage there are still significant issues with crude oil and the dollar. Last week the market came uncoupled to those influences to some extent. Crude oil was down and the dollar strong but the indices still fell. Even though the correlation was less direct there is very likely to be a continued focus on oil if it rises, and the dollar if it falls.

So we have some substantial challenges to deal with as we start a new week. It is particularly important that we just don't throw up our hands in dismay and do nothing. We need to be proactive and take steps to cut losses and protect capital.

When market conditions are bad, many of us are inclined to simply ignore them and do little. More often than not we pay a steep price when we fail to deal directly with a difficult situation. This is the time to be tough. If you are badly positioned take steps to correct that situation. It is amazing how much confidence you can gain when you take control of your situation, rather than sit and do nothing as you watch the market struggle.

We have some Monday morning optimism, which always makes me distrustful. Strong opens at the start of a new week particularly in a market facing the problems this one does is an invitation for some selling. The market seldom goes straight up after a strong open on Monday.

The dollar is strong, European markets were closed for holidays but Asia was up, oil is down and gold is down. There isn't a lot of news on the wires.

Börsipäev 28. märts - USA börsid avatakse 17.30

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