Börsipäev 29. märts
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DNDN Dendreon: Paul Allen's Vulcan Ventures reports a 4.91% stake in DNDN -- SEC filing (5.87 )
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MYGN Myriad Genetics' Flurizan results should have large impact on stock -- CSFB (20.41 )
CSFB says MYGN's Flurizan mild-moderate Alzheimer's disease clinical Phase 2 study (expected mid-May) is properly designed and has been well executed, but is statistically underpowered for a "true" Phase 3 study. Firm would be surprised if the primary endpoint were to be met. However, if met, stock upside could reach $38-40, $13-$17 if missed but positive efficacy trends exist. However, if missed and no clear efficacy trends exist, stock could settle in at $10-13.
Päris huvitav variant straddle huvilistele. Ei leia esimese hooga täpsemat kuupäeva, kas data peaks tulema enne või pärast mai optsioonireedet, seetõttu oleks augusti optsioonid mõistlikumad. Nagu ikka straddle puhul, oleks paigalejäämine oleks kõige kehvem võimalus. Suur liikumine ühes või teises suunas pakuks aga võimalust teenimiseks. Ilmselt saab mängida ka volatiilsuse tõusule.
JFYI -
MYGN volatiilsus on viimase nädala-kahega juba kõvasti tõusnud, 45% juurest 75% juurde. Samas kindlasti tõusuruumi on veelgi, kui CSFB poolt mainitud liikumisulatust oodata on.
Sarnane väga oluline uudis on tulemas CGTK kohta, see peaks üsna lähemal ajal saabuma. CGTK kohta ootused muidugi ülimadalad, positiivset lahendust eriti ei oodata. Kui peaks siiski tulema, siis üks analüütik pakkus isegi $29 targetit (täna aktsia $5 peal). Kuna allapoole vähem ruumi, siis straddlest mõistlikum lihtsalt calle osta. Väga kõrge riskiga tehing, sest volatiilsus juba ülikõrge. -
Paul Alleni Vulcan on DNDN aktsionär juba pikka aega. 15-05.2002 seisuga omas Vulcan 15% DNDN aktsiatest. Huvitav on aga viimaste päevade insidertehingute maht http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=DNDN
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Gapping Up
HCA +9.5% (guides higher; upgrades from Fulcrum and OpCo), NVEC +8.5% (to receive patent), LANV +26% (reports JanQ), BITS +11% (signs license agreement with Connexion by Boeing), MCX +6.2%, STSI +6%, ELTK +5.6% (extends recent momentum), PACT +9.5% (reaffirms financial guidance), TSRA +2.9%, LPNT +2.8% (shareholders approve merger with PRV), .... Under $3: ARTX +22% (wins Army contract), MCEL +21% (delivers system to Defense Dept).
Gapping Down
REDE -23% (guides; CFO resigns, appoints new CFO; WR Hamrecht downgrades), APOL -2.8% (reports FebQ; disappointing rev guidance), AGIX -9.5% (started with a Sell at IRG; tgt $6), SMDI -14% (lowers Q1 guidance), TAYD -5.6% (profit taking after 45% move yesterday), LEXR -2.7% (extends yesterday's 17% drop), BOBJ -2% (Microsoft pending business intelligence announcement could dampen BI software stocks -- Goldman), ELBO -1.7% (profit taking after 10.5% move yesterday), BIIB -1.6%, ANTP -1.4%. -
Rev Shark:
Wait for Better Action and Don't Trust the Chatter
3/29/05 8:36 AM ET"You prove your worth with your actions, not with your mouth."
-- Pat Riley
This is a market that has a lot of work to do before it can be trusted. There is nothing in the recent action to indicate that the trend is about to turn up. The trend is down, and until there is some solid proof to the contrary, we need to respect that. We are going to hear from lots of folks predicting when this market is going to turn, but what we need is action not theories or arguments or talk.
The move yesterday was so poor that it doesn't even deserve to be called a "bounce." Although the indices were positive, volume and breadth were extremely poor. The strength was extremely superficial and did nothing for the market other than make it less oversold and set the stage for further downside.
The great temptation in a market that is downtrending like this one is to try to catch the moment that it turns back up. Over and over again, we will hear speculation about how we can't go much lower and that you better hurry and buy so that you won't be left out.
If you are a short-term trader you will have playable bounces, but if you have a time frame of more than a few days, you will plenty of time to put your capital to work once a decent rally begins. The serial bottom-callers will try to nail the exact bottom, and at some point they will get it right, but it will be due to luck, not any particular skill at predicting the market.
Before you put your hard-earned capital to work, wait for proof in the form of better action. That means rallies on improved volume, new market leadership and technical setups with decent support.
We have a weak open shaping up in front of the consumer confidence report that is due out at 10 a.m. ET. Overseas markets were weak. Oil and gold have bounced up a bit, and the dollar is mixed.
I'm going to cover some of my DIA short prior to the open, but I have little confidence that this market is going to produce decent upside from here.
Short DIA
Gary B. Smith:
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Kristjani mainitud CGTK uudis tuligi ja ei midagi head.
Hetkel eelturul -20.48%
