Börsipäev 5. mai - kas jõudu jätkub?
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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General Motorsi (GM) short-squeeze jätkub, täna analüütikutelt paar reitingu tõstmist.
$26 peal oli GM "sell".
Tender offer oli $31 pealt.
$33 pealt on GM "buy".
Analüütikud :) -
Rev Shark:
"If you wish to be success in the world, promise everything, deliver nothing."
-- Napoleon Bonaparte
The market action yesterday was quite promising: breadth, volume and price action were all positive; technology and financial stocks are asserting leadership; crude oil is down to the $50 area; and some important technical overhead has been breached. The conditions are in place for the market to rally further, but will the market deliver?
One of the bigger positives supporting the market now is negative sentiment and a high level of bearishness. When folks are feeling negative they hold higher levels of cash. That works out nicely as long as the market continues to struggle but once things begin to turn up they begin to worry that they may miss out. That idle cash on the sidelines now becomes fuel to keep the market moving up.
Another positive along the same lines is that the confidence level in the market's ability to make a meaningful turn upward is very low. Many market players expect the market to quickly roll over again as the weight of reality sets in. There are a lot of things to worry about but that worry assures that there is idle cash on the sidelines and that sets the stage for the proverbial wall of worry.
There are a number of other promising developments as well but it would be foolish to disregard the propensity of the market this year not to deliver and follow through when things looked good. When it has been time to "put up or shut up" the market has sputtered.
The key now is that the bulls hold on to a big chunk of the recent gains. Consolidation and basing action at this point would be extremely healthy but as we have seen numerous times this year the market has had a tendency to quickly reverse and give back the gains that held so much promise. The bulls need to be confident enough at this point that if we do pull back, they see it as a good opportunity to buy the dip. We have had a lot of serial bottom callers for a while but not a lot of good "dip buying" action.
To add some complexities to the situation we have a very important jobs report tomorrow morning. This is going to be viewed by many as an important piece of evidence in the determination of what course of action the FOMC is likely to take down the road. A big jobs number will fan the flames of inflationary concerns and may end up being a negative for the market. That report may keep the action capped today.
Also, don't forget crude oil. Traders are still watching it carefully and big moves are affecting the market. If oil turns up again it is going to be tough for the indices to move up further.
We have a flat start on the way. The most recent installment in IBM's (IBM:NYSE) multi-decade "restructuring" is being viewed positively and JP Morgan is adding fuel to the GM (GM:NYSE) short squeeze with an upgrade to overweight.
We should have a good battle today but it's the jobs report tomorrow that will be the next major market catalyst.
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G. B. Smith:
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Veel 1 huvitav graafik:
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GM on haige teema. Peale seda, kui mingi pooleteise jalaga hauas olev vanaätt oma testamenti kirjutab, et tahaks paar aktsiat osta ja aktsia tõuseb ca 20%, siis järsku on ettevõte jube heaks muutunud. Kui see vanaätt aktsiaid tõesti osta tahtis, siis ta oleks seda võinud vabalt turult kokku osta nii palju kui tahtis ja tunduvalt madalama hinnaga.
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Ta tahab ennast hellitada tedmisega, et suudab turge mõjutada.
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Gapping Up
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: IVII +20% (also Google deal), BOOM +16%, EDMC +11% (also Jefferies upgrade), GT +7.1%, WFMI +5%, ECIL +4.7%, WLDA +3.5%... Retailers gapping up on strong April comps/guidance: WTSLA +6.5%, AEOS +2.7%, PLCE +2.5%, SBUX +2%... Other News: RIMM +2.9% (positive CNBC segment), IBM +1.2% (announces restructuring plans), PARL +5.5% (extension of 28% move yesterday), NGEN +6.5% (extension of 21% move yesterday), TSRA +4.2% (extension of 8% move yesterday), STEM +5%... Under $3: CYTR +11% (FDA grants orphan drug status).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: GPRO -8.1% (also Baird downgrade), FWHT -20% (also CFO resigns), TTEC -19% (also Baird downgrade), GTIV -18.4% (also Raymond James downgrade), IVIL -15% (also Jefferies downgrade), PGIC -8%, QLGC -7%, GNSS -2.6%, SYMC -1.8%... Gapping down on disappointing April comps/guidance: PSUN -6%, ROST -4.5%... Other News: RNVS -4.3% (profit taking after 94% move yesterday). -
jim, hästi paned (kell 16:30) :-)) Hea, et ta siin lugemas ei käi.
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DNDN teeb uudise ootuses juba nädal varem väikseid spurdiharjutusi. Oliver, eni komments?
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Don't over-regulate hedge funds - Fed's Greenspan [FCCTZRM]
CHICAGO, May 5 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned on Thursday not to handicap hedge funds with too much regulation because this could limit their ability to provide markets with an important source of liquidity.
"You have to be very careful to make sure that ... the hedge funds are completely transparent to their investors and that the investors are acutely aware of the nature of the risks, and the level of the risks, that they are taking," he told a conference on derivatives organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. "But you also have to be careful about imposing regulation on these funds to the extent that you inhibit their actions.
Remember that collecting data on hedge funds may appear to give you a degree of transparency, but most of the data that you will get will tell you about their strategy of last night. This morning, they have a new one," he said.
Päris naljakas kuulda sellised sõnu Mr G suust. Kas hedge fundid siis polegi kõige kurja juureks äkki?
sB -
Fantoom,
No comment on DNDN. Peale sellist kukkumist nagu võiks ju mingit põrget oodata. Pealegi, kui Corixa (CRXA) 40% preemiaga GSK poolt Reedel ära osteti, kisendas see üle kogu turu, et väike biotech on undervalued.
sB -
turg kukkus järsult:
GM kukkus 60 senti
SP futuurid 3 punkti -
GM General Motors credit rating cut to junk by S&P - Bloomberg (31.96 -0.84)
Oodatud oli, aga jõnks allapoole ikkagi. -
12:39 GM General Motors credit rating cut to junk by S&P - Bloomberg (31.96 -0.84)
Ikka eri hea ajastus sellele uudisele (selle oht juba mitu kuud aktsia kohal), turg siiski nii palju positiivne, et GM kukkus esimese reaktsioonina vaid $0.60. -
F Ford Motor credit cut to junk at S&P - Bloomberg (9.80 -0.36)
Another one bites the dust. -
Täna Inteli (INTC) ja Siebeli (SEBL) analyst meetingud. Mõlemad olulised sündmused, kuna esimesest oodatakse pooljuhtidele tuge ning teisest sõnumeid potentsiaalse ühinemise/ülevõtmise teemadel.
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Lihtsalt üks fantaasialend päeva esimese postituse teemal:
GM kukub $26 peale
Analüütikud langetavad reitingu taas "buy" pealt "sell'i" peale. :)
Fordi (F) laen ka just junki peale. -
Minu jaoks vähemalt oli GM'i junk staatus pigem oodatud, Fordi (F) reitingu langetus üllatas rohkem. Seepärast viimane ka protsentuaalselt rohkem peksa saab.
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Nüüd on siis vaikselt Kerkoriani bid'ist tegelikest motiividest aru hakatud saama.
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Fordi peaks siiski toetama see uudis
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eile tehti GM-ile 86000 lepingut putte 10-se strike juures, expiration 2007 jaanuaris :D
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Kui eile vedas GM turu üles, siis täna koos Fordiga alla. Pole just kuigi hea märk, et eilset tugevust ei suudetud hoida, eriti arvestades, et eilne GM tõus oli märksa võimsam ja ootamatum, kui tänane langus ..
GM aga on läbi vajunud $31 tasemest, mida kõik analüütikud järjekindlalt lühiajaliseks põhjaks nimetasid. Praeguseks on ilmselt Kerkorian oma 22 mln aktsiat siiski saanud müüdud :) -
Ma pole küll fundamentaalanalüütik, kuid eriti GMi (kuid ka Fordi) aktsiad on minu silmis junk reitinguga. Graafiku mainitud $10 target ei ole üldsegi nii utoopiline.
JP Morgani tänane upgrade ... uhoh. -
mis need analyst meetingud'd endast kujutavad ,mis kell tulemused ?
Sama rida ka QCOM'l kui ma ei eksi. -
Delphi (DPH) - 10%. No wonder - GM exposure poolest teine tegija...
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Briefingu kommentaari peale oleks raha jõudnud teha küll:
12:41 GM General Motors ticks down $0.60 on debt downgrade; watch for potential reaction in suppliers such as DPH, LEA, AXL and MGA (31.64 -1.16) -Technical- -
to Ifc
Inteli meeting käib hetkel ja kellel huvi, siis siit näeb videoülekannet. Viimati räägiti läpakatest, mobiilidest ja WiMAXist, kuid 4-tunniseks plaanitud konverentsi vältel tulevad arutlusele ka dual ja multicore protsessorid ning serveritesse suunatud Itanium kiibid. Väga olulisi kommentaare majanduskliima kohta ei oodata (need siis 9 juunil).
Siebelit pinnitakse tõenäoliselt seoses ülevõtuspekulatsioonidega.
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Fordi CFO:" We disagree with S&P's action today"
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Ja päeva lõpetame ilusti plussis.:)
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Üks lõik reitinguagentuuri seletusest, miks GM võlakirjareitingut alandati:
Of greatest immediate concern is that GM's sport utility vehicles (SUVs)
will no longer be as profitable as they have been in recent years. "GM's
financial performance has been heavily dependent on the profit contribution of
its SUVs," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Scott Sprinzen. "Recently,
though, sales of its midsize and large SUVs have plummeted, and industry wide
demand has evidently stalled, partly because of high gas prices. Also,
competition has intensified due to a proliferation of new SUVs," he continued.
GM has suffered from the aging of its SUV product line, which will be replaced
by a family of new products during 2006 and 2007--when Ford Motor Co. will be
doing the same... -
Tore, et lopuks on ka korgepalgalised valgekraed oma finantsanaluusides aru saanud sellest, mida tavaameeriklane juba ammu teadis - ameerika autod, mone uksiku erandiga, on junk!
Alguses ehmatas ara, kui hinnatud on siin naiteks Honda Civicud vmt Eestis mitte armastatud jaapanlased, kuid oige pea sai pilt selgeks - USA autod on ju kaugelt viletsamad veel kui jaapanlased ning Euroopa omasid lihtsalt igauks ei hakka hinna parast ostma, nii soidabki keskklass peamiselt Hondade, Toyotade ja Nissanitega. -
Fordi CFO sai ülaltoodud kommentaariga ka "nädala 5 lollimat asja Wall Streetil" toppi sisse.
http://www.thestreet.com/_tsclsii/comment/dumbest/10222050_3.html
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Alan Greenspan ka TOP 5 seas, :)
