Börsipäev 9.-10. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Gapping Up
AMTD +25% (WSJ reports that ET +7.7% has formally made offer to AMTD; up in sympathy: SCH +5.7%), CIN +9.2% (to merge with DUK), GRU +4.2% (Barron's lists co as a Mark Cuban holding), SONS +3.9% (reports after the close today), AMD +1.8% (AMD poised to earn $2 in 2006 - Barron's), RIMM +1.8% (reaches 3 mln sub mark)... Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: VTIV +6.3%, KG +4.3%.... Under $3: GNTA +20% (reports Q1), DGIT +14% (reports Q1), AGT +7%, CGTK +5.5% (presents pre-clinical data), ISON +3.8%, ZHNE +3.8%.
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: IART -17% (also SunTrust downgrade), JOBS -9.5%.... Other News: MTEX -13% (discussed cynically in Barron's), DHB -7.8%, ISLE -5.4% (Florida legislature fails to craft enabling legislation for slots - Susquehanna), BEBE -4.8%, WYNN -4.4% (Goldman downgrade), MEDI -1.9% (files 10-Q), DUK -1.6% (to merge with CIN), RNVS -1.5% (profit taking after 109% move last week). -
Rev Shark:
Fed Fog Will Keep Things in Check
5/9/05 8:21 AM ET"History has demonstrated that the most notable winners usually encountered heartbreaking obstacles before they triumphed. They won because they refused to become discouraged by their defeats."
-- B. C. Forbes
Last week the indices managed to produce one of their better performances so far this year. The bulls were quite relieved to finally see some upside action but they would be very foolish to become overly confident. Although the market action was better, we are now confronted with some very tough obstacles.
The first big obstacle is significant technical overhead. Five strong up days has left the indices slightly overbought and bumping into technical overhead. All three major indices face overhead resistance either at significant moving averages or at the lows from recent months. Without building better support it is not going to be easy to move higher. The indices need some consolidation before we can feel more confident about further upside.
From a fundamental standpoint the major hurdle we need to overcome is the Fed and its focus on fighting inflation. Friday's response to the stronger-than-expected jobs report underscores the problem. The initial reaction was positive but as the day progressed, the fact that the better-than-expected report would keep the Fed raising interest rates in order to battle inflationary pressures set in.
Interest rates are always important to the market but they have an outsized impact now because the market is uncertain about where the Fed stands. There are those who feel that growth is slow enough that the Fed is likely to slow the pace of hikes while there are others who see "stagflation" lurking and expect the Fed to be quite aggressive in fighting it.
This lack of clarity over rates means the market has not been efficiently pricing in the future. We also tend to react strongly to each piece of incremental economic datum that gives clues as to what the Fed may do in the future as the market struggles to discount accuarately what will happen. This fog is unlikely to lift soon and that is going to make things tough for the bulls.
Despite those obstacles there are some positives to be found. Foremost is that the market action in some key leadership groups is much better. There was some follow through for a change last week and technology, biotech and financials showed some signs that they were attracting buyers.
Oil remains under pressure and that is also helping matters. Further slippage in crude not only helps combat inflationary pressures but has a positive psychological impact on investors.
The third positive this market has going for it is a fairly high level of gloom. The sentiment polls reflect multi-level highs in negativity. Folks are discouraged after four months of lousy action and many have given up. The proverbal wall of worry is in place and that is a positive.
The bulls are trying to shake off the weekend hangover and perk up this market. We have slightly positive early action but overseas markets were mostly negative and oil is up a tad in the early going. There are some major obstacles out there and the bulls have their work cut out for them.
Gary B. Smith:
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Täna on miskid Dendreoni tulemused. Arvan ma õigesti, et need suurt asja ei mõjuta kuna rohkem tegeletakse spekulatsiooniga, mis tulevikus laborist tuleb?
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täiesti õigus.
sB -
13-17 mai miski koosolek
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Paistab, et täna DSCM tõusu taga on järjekordne Melinda Gates ost, reedene SEC filling näitab, et ostis jälle juurde 75k.
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American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting. Onkoloogia teemaline konverents, kust igal aastal oodatakse uudiseid uuemate vähiravimite kohta. Nende hulgas ka Denreonilt (DNDN). Tegemist on D9901 III faasi katsetulemustega, mis on juba varem avaldatud. Ühesõnaga midagi uut ei ootaks.
sB -
Kas haip juba lendab? VEXP +30% suure k'aibega.
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Kristjan püüab sellega küsida, et kas tipud lähedal?
sB -
V6i akki alles hakatakse ostma?
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Viimane kord kui VEXP rallit tegi, kukkus QQQQ paar päeva hiljem päris põhjalikult.
sB -
DNDN plaanib siiski ASCO-l pakkuda lisaks varem avaldatule ka mingit lisainfot D9901 III faasi kohta.
Jarelturul kais hind korraks jalle ka ule $6...eks paistab, kus hind reede ohtuks on. -
FRANKLIN TEMPLETON GROUPIN OSAKEOMISTUKSESTA M-REAL OYJ:SSÄ
M-real Oyj Pörssi-ilmoitus 10.5.2005 klo 11.00
ARVOPAPERIMARKKINALAIN 2. LUVUN 10 PYKÄLÄN MUKAINEN ILMOITUS FRANKLIN
TEMPLETON GROUPIN OSAKEOMISTUKSESTA M-REAL OYJ:SSÄ
M-real Oyj:n 10.5. saaman tiedon mukaan Franklin Templeton Groupin
omistamien rahastojen omistusosuus M-realissa on 6.5.2005 laskenut
4,99 prosenttiin osakepääomasta ja 1,60 prosenttiin yhtiön
äänivallasta. Franklin Templeton Group tytäryhtiöineen omistaa
yhteensä 16 390 170 M-realin B-osaketta.
M-REAL OYJ -
E-LOAN beats by 3 cents, issues FY05 guidance; names new CFO
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.03 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.00); revenues rose 25.5% year/year to $38.4 mln vs the $37.5 mln consensus. Co reaffirms FY05 guidance of pre-tax EPS of 0.13, which may not be comparable to the $0.10 consensus; sees FY05 revs of $165.00 mln vs. $161.11 mln consensus. Co also announces that it has promoted its Head of Capital Markets, Darren Nelson, to Chief Financial Officer. The former CFO, Matt Roberts, will remain an employee of the co until the transition has been completed. -
Apple (AAPL) võimaldab uue iTunesi versiooniga ka videosid alla laadida, osade muusikapaladega saab video tasuta kaasa. See päris oluline samm, eriti kui näiteks DVD filme saaks sellisel kujul osta.
Eks seda uudist oli oodata ka, kuid siiski oli tegem varemalt vaid spekulatsioonidega. -
Morgan Stanley TA meeskond täna hommikul oma klientidele: Summary and Investment Conclusion
We remain near-term bullish, but believe that averages are in the final stages of their advance from 4/29 before a pullback from overbought territory occurs. Although we anticipate a summer rally in equities, the period from 5/10-5/30 could be unsettling for market bulls, allowing a retracement to alleviate recent daily and intra-day overbought conditions. Key targets lie near SPX- 1183, DJIA-10492, and NASDAQ Comp.-1995. An advance that exceeds SPX-1178.87, DJIA-10400, and NASDAQ-1979.60 would indicate that this final move is underway. As mentioned, near-term momentum indicators have become overbought on both an intra-day and daily basis, although weekly momentum is just starting to advance from oversold territory. Although the SPX has advanced within a few points of its 50% price retracement zone, based on its 3/7-4/20 decline, time factors also show 5/12 as representing a 50% time retracement of the same decline. Thus, a final move above recent highs near 1178.87 to reach 1183 could likely represent much stronger resistance over the next two days. Note the recent triangle pattern that has developed in the DJIA, similar to the other benchmark indices. A final push above recent highs would likely mark the highs of this pattern, allowing a pullback to unfold over the
next few weeks to alleviate overbought conditions.
We mentioned the end of May as representing the next possible intermediate-term reversal area for equity indices, as this period gives a confluence of several important Fibonacci time targets from prior inflection points. In particular, 377 Fibonacci months from the 12/9/74 lows pinpoints 6/1/05. Additionally, this time period also constitutes daily fibonacci cycles of 233 and 377 calendar days from last year's turning points in early October and mid-May. Any pullback into this period would likely be a time to add to existing long positions for an advance into mid-July. The Russell 2000, recently confirmed a daily TD Sequential(TM) buy signal on 5/4, but has now risen to an area that should mark its first true test of this advance. We believe the area from 603-608 should represent strong resistance, allowing a pullback to occur over the next few weeks. Additional resistance lies at 618.
FWIW,
sB -
Rev Shark:
A Victory in This Market Is Just Standing Still
5/10/05 8:24 AM ET"Conventional people are roused to fury by departures from convention, largely because they regard such departures as a criticism of themselves."
-- Bertrand Russell
One of the great truths about the market is that it does not move in a straight line. All meaningful trends have corrections, pullbacks and consolidations. The Nasdaq 100 has been up seven straight days, the Nasdaq is up six of the last seven days. Thus the conventional wisdom is that the market is due to pull back and correct any time now.
Many folks were expecting that correction to begin yesterday but the market did not cooperate. Two intraday dips brought in buyers and we ended up with a strong close on good breadth although volume was light. This was surprisingly positive action and quite different than what we have seen so far this year.
We have two scenarios to contemplate this morning. The first is the conventional technical wisdom that says this market is extended, running into overhead and is due to consolidate and pull back. The second is that it's an obvious positive change in market character.
Can the more positive sentiment help minimize the technical correction that is so obviously needed? Probably. We have an interesting dynamic at work now. The folks on the sidelines with idle cash are looking for buy points, and that is why the dips yesterday were bought. There is now more worry and concern about being left out of further upside than there is about losing money.
Another positive that has emerged is new market leadership from important sectors such as technology, biotechnology and financials. These are the groups that provide the best leadership and if they show relative strength, that bodes well for the bulls.
This morning should give us some good insight into how aggressive the dip buyers will be. We have a weak start to the day and if folks want to put capital to work they will have a chance this morning.
The market doesn't need to go up at this point to be bullish. All it needs to do is hold steady and not pull back too much. If the dip buyers stay active, we are in good shape for further upside in the days and weeks ahead.
Overseas markets were weak overnight and crude oil is over the $52 mark once again. There is no economic news on the agenda but Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) is due to report after the close tonight and that will garner some attention.
No positions in stock mentioned
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E-Loanil oli otsesest äritegevusest siiski pool milli kahjumit. Kasum teeniti auto-laenu tütarfirma müügist. Siiski on tulemused paranevad.
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Iraan hakkab allveelaevu tegema. Huvitav, kas varsti ilmub kolonel Duvall, kes hüüab, et "bomb them back into the stone age, son" :P
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Gapping Up
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: ABIX +49%, CSPI +47%, ADBL +16%, SYKE +10% (also Raymond James upgrade), PCNTF +6.3%, EELN +6%, PRZ +5.3%, HANS +5%, CYBX +4.3%.... Other News: EMMS +20% (co says it may sell TV business, approves Dutch tender to purchase up to 20.2 mln shares), NUAN +55% (to be acquired by SSFT), VRTX +16% (Phase 1 data; target raised to $20 at CSFB), EXTR +6.7% (defeats Lucent's patent infringement claims), ENMC +5.3% (started with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $8.50), JOBS +3% (bounces after 28% drop yesterday), DYN +2.6% (BofA upgrade).... Under $3: TEKC +27%, XOMA +15% (reports Q1).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: RTIX -31%, CDSS -21% (also Kaufman downgrade), FOSL -18%, ECST -16%, PCLN -9%, CAPA -9%, SONS -2.3% (also Legg Mason cuts to Sell)... Other News: SSFT -10%, ZEUS -3% (KeyBanc downgrade), XMSR -2.4%, AXS -5%, WMAR -4%. -
Melinda Gates jätkab drugstore.com (DSCM) aktsiate ostmist. Huvitav, kas selle taga võib olla firma uus juht? ...või midagi muud. Eile teatas ta siis veel lisaks 151500 aktsia ostmisest $2.63 juurest. Tundub, et viimase aja tõusu taga ongi tema ostuorderid olnud ning kui need ära kaovad, võib hetkeks ka langus tulla.
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Täna õhtul tulemustega Cisco Systems (CSCO), võib olla oluline sündmus kogu turule.
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World Air Holdings (WLDA) kosub iga paevaga, tana ka hasti ennast naidanud.
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Glamis(sümbol GLG) on alla müüdud, ainuke süü, et kullafirma Glamise sümbol näeb välja nagu hedgefondi GLG Partners nimi. Turul käivad jutud,et GLG Partnersil võib olla probleeme derivatiividega.
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Jah, see mure hedge-fondide suhtes on ka yks peamisi põhjusi, miks myygisurve valitseb. GLG Partners lykkas kuuldused raskustest tagasi.
Kuid see GLG langus on naljakas tõesti, nagu BABY ja MAMA koos langemine oli mõni aeg tagasi. -
DNDN kogub ka tuure enne nädalavahetust, kui tuleb ehk uut ja huvitavat infi, spekulandid on panuseid tegemas
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tiny võttis sõnad suust... :)
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DNDN rohkem aasta lõpu mäng
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CSCO tulemused head, kuid aktsia vaid vaevalised 10 senti plussis.
16:15 CSCO Cisco Systems beats by a penny (18.19 -0.02)
Reports Q3 (Apr) earnings of $0.23 per share, $0.01 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.22; revenues rose 10.1% year/year to $6.19 bln vs the $6.15 bln consensus. CSCO reports gross margin 66.8% vs 67% Briefing.com consensus. Inventory turns were 6.5, unchanged sequentially; days sales outstanding in accounts receivable at the end of Q3 were 33 days, compared with 28 days at the end of the Q4 Y04, and compared with 34 days at the end of Q2. "This quarter's results demonstrate that we have the right strategy in place to deliver profitable growth....Cisco is clearly delivering on its long-term financial priorities with revenue up 13 percent and pro forma operating profit up 18 percent year to date." -
Wondering, kas peaks shortima here.
sB
