Börsipäev 12. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Rev Shark:
"There are always difficulties arising that tempt you to believe your critics are right."
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson
One of the consequences of the recent choppy trading environment is that it seems to have increased the certainty of the long-term views held by both bulls and bears. Each camp seems more secure that its view will ultimately prevail as the market battles back and forth on an almost daily basis.
The many folks in the middle who have no strong views are swayed back and forth as the critics of whatever took place the prior day make their points. One thing critics aren't lacking is plenty of issues to use as ammunition for their arguments.
As I've stated a number of times lately, I'm becoming more optimistic about this market. There are two main reasons. First is marginally better buying action, and yesterday was a good example. The bulls were on the ropes but managed a big reversal and a strong close. Breadth wasn't good and volume was mediocre, but there was enough buying interest to produce a good turn. There are some other signs of buying accumulation but they are subtle and fragile. The bulls can't afford to let things slip or the small advantage they have will be loss.
The other thing making me more optimistic about the market is the extremely high levels of negativity and gloom. The financial press is giving the impression lately that we will see 1970's-style stagflation at any moment, with the economy falling apart as prices race higher. To make it even worse, the FOMC is "trapped" and is going to pound on us by steadily raising rates. The investor who casually follows the economic news must be very frightened by the idea of putting money in the stock market at this point.
This gloom and despair coupled slightly better technical action has made me more optimistic. It seems to me that there is a very big wall of worry out there and if we start to slowly climb it, the buyers will inch us up.
We have some interesting news this morning. Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) is cutting its estimates and blaming the weather and higher gasoline prices. On the other hand, overall retail sales for April were just reported to have grown at twice the consensus estimates. Is WMT an aberration?
With the focus on inflation-fighting by the Fed we are in one of those peculiar times when bad economic news may actually be a positive for the market, and vice versa. If the Fed does anything to indicate that it is going to back off on the interest rate hikes, the market will very likely react in a positive fashion. However, there is no indication that is about to happen.
Early indications have now turned positive on the retail sales news, after being weak on WMT earlier. Oil is down again and is helping matters.
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G. B. Smith on täna rohkem kui 1 graafikul indekseid vaadelnud
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Nõus, eilne käitumine oli väga positiivne. Kui täna hoida suudetakse, siis märk tugevusest.
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Gapping Up
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: GIGA +33%, ALTI +12%, TALX +7.2%, NAVR +6.2% (also acquires FUNimation)... Other News: AFCE +13% (declares special cash dividend of $12 per share), FWHT +9.5% (judge declares mistrial in patent infringement case with Yahoo), SNIC +8.7% (Yahoo! Music licenses Sonic AuthorScript CD/DVD burning technology), NWAC +4.1% (JP Morgan adds NWAC to Focus List), IDNX +3.7% (wins Missouri contract), CRGN +6.2% (signs deal with Roche; CEO steps down sooner than expected), MUSE +6% (Raymond James upgrade), AMTD +2.8% (says co is not for sale), ELN +2.7%, DHR +2.7% (CSFB upgrade), NTAP +2% (Smith Barney upgrade), ONXX +2.5%, ERICY +1.4% (CSFB upgrade), AMT +1.4% (upgrades from BofA and Morgan Stanley).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: WMT -3.7% (down in sympathy: SHLD -1.5%), ACXM -11% (downgraded at William Blair, Baird and Piper Jaffray), ACAT -13%, HELE -7.6%, NAPS -3.2%,... Other News: AMTD -13% (was halted; trades lower after reopening after co says it's not for sale), DNDN -2.5% (profit taking after 36% move over last 7 sessions),ASMI -3.2% (continues recent weakness), IMCL -2.9% (to discontinue its Small Molecule Program)... Under $3: PROX -50% (reports Q1), PPHM -16%. -
amtd on nii gapping up kui ka down
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Ameritrade oli vahepeal haltitud, enne seda oli aktsia plussis, pärast teadet, et firma ei ole müügis läks aktsia miinusesse, seega pigem gapping down.
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drugstore.com (DSCM) jätkab tugevalt ja on tekkinud väike koridor $2.95 $3.05 vahel. Praegu tundub, et ollakse ülemisest äärest läbi minemas. Eile teatas M. Gates, et ostis veel aktsiaid kokku. Raske ennustada, millal tema orderid täidetud saavad, kuid seniks võib tõusu jätkumist oodata.
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Craig Hallum usub et NAPS võib olla ülevõtukandidaat:
NAPS Napster downgraded to Neutral at Craig Hallum
Craig Hallum downgrades NAPS to Neutral from Buy, given what they perceive as lower visibility into the growth prospects for the co near-term. Firm says once the impact of competitive pricing issues become clearer, they will re-evaluate this position. However, they believe the value of the Napster brand, infrastructure and subscriber base may be well in excess of the current mkt value of the shares. Based on the low enterprise value and large mkt potential, firm believes the co may be an interesting acquisition candidate for a larger entity looking to establish a presence in digital music and leverage the strong brand recognition. -
asco aktsiad on täna jälle kõik rohelised
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10:01 AMTD Ameritrade downgraded to Sell at IRG (13.21 -0.55)
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AMTD CEO tegevust võib nimetada läbirääkimisteks.
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kus see NAPS story oli? kyll hilinenud, aga siiski?
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OVTI vaevleb ka juba pikemat aega suhteliselt madalal tasemel. Tundub hea koht osta.
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Fordi võlakirjadega kauplemine Londonis on peatatud, ilmselt mingi uudis tulemas. Võla downgrade?
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kõik nägid seda Inteli (INTC) järsku liikumist alla?
Kuuldavasti oli üks trader tahtnud müüa 10 000 aktsiat, kuid pani kogemata paar nulli juurde ja müüdud sai miljon aktsiat. -
INTC oli easy money.
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pikaks? bold.
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Kuulsin INTC kohta ka numbrit 8 mln. aktsiat ekslikult müüdud. Eks sealt üks pool punkti võib ikka kaotust tulla, 4 mln. USD on valus laks ka suuremate deskide jaoks.
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kahe langusminuti jooksul käis läbi alla 5 miljoni aktsia läbi, seega 8 miljonit natuke liialdatud number.
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F Ford Motor debt ratings downgraded by Moody's (9.45 -0.19)
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Ford põrkab.
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re: INTC - kui oli selge, et downgrade'i pole kuskilt ja isegi sel juhul poleks nii järsk ja tugev kukkumine olnd likely, siis 24.50-55 pealt pikaks minna oli suht turvaline, imho. ülejäänd sektor püsis ka.
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12:37 AMTD Ameritrade: FBR analyst on CNBC says believes ET initial offer was just to get seat at the table (13.56 -0.20)
-Update- Analyst believes ET can do deal of at least $16.50/share before before it becomes less attracitve. -
see oli 2,5 tundi vana briefingul
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Täna oli siis pullide jaoks selline "do or die" päev ja 1 h 15 min veel börsipäeva lõpuni ning tundub, et viimane sai teoks. Väga negatiivne action turul, indeksid teevad uusi põhju.
Järelturul tulemustega Dell (DELL). -
pullide asi on lihtsalt to put up or shut up. igasugu dip buyerid on ammu juba surnud.
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Paistab, et 2003 aasta eufooria leiab lõpu. On ju suht normaalsete tulemustega kvartal olnud (nasdaq), kuid kõik on "pimedad" või ei julge pullideks hakata. Kõik vist vaatavd, mida nende intressidega peale hakata. Kas ikka on USA majandus nii palju kosunud, kui 2003 aasta aktsiatõus andis.
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Mina ei saa sellest langusest aru. Kui Dow komponente vaadata, siis mul on seal 10 ettevõtet, mille ostmine võiks huvitada.Aga neist ainult ExxonMobil (-4.3%) ja AIG kukkusid (-1.37%) suurelt. Samas 5 tõusjast olid 3 potentsiaalsed ostuobjektid. Ütleme nii, et järjest rohkem jääb mulje, et kui autotööstus, jae ja pangad välja võtta, siis see turg on päris tugev. Ja need on selgelt sektorid, mis on USA siseturust tugevalt sõltuvad.
Nafta on omaette juhtum. Ühel päeval tõuseb, siis tuleb metsik langus. Kokkuvõttes oli täna lihtsalt languspäev. Muidugi indeksit mõjutas see langus ka kõvasti. -
Sama loll, mis minagi. Selles pole probleem.
