Börsipäev 19. mai - NFLX!
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Cody Willard täna Rev Shark asemel:
Nasdaq Has the Force, but It Still Might Need a Rest
I'm no technical analyst and have no interest in becoming one. But even though I don't draw lines around the action of a chart and I don't make trades off of what a chart might or might not be saying, I do know how to look at charts. And to turn a phrase based on the old Supreme Court ruling, I know what a change of character in the market looks like when I see it. And the Nasdaq has, for the first time since it turned down right at the beginning of this year, undergone a character change that would make Darth Vader blush. The broader indices, meanwhile, have perked up and acted well too.
But far and away the star of this character-morphing show has been the Nasdaq. I mentioned last night the irony of how the markets tanked in full rejection of the January effect, which was supposed to juice stocks, and how May has repudiated the old "sell in May and go away" saw. And it's not as if we're trying to force fit that irony. The final trading day in December was exactly the recent top for the Nasdaq, and the final trading day in April was exactly the recent bottom. You wouldn't believe it if you saw it in a sci-fi flick, but sometimes reality really is more amazing than fiction.
Yesterday's volume bump on a nice, steady climb is likely to have most of the troopers who do analyze the technicals talking bullishly. I'm finding myself in a bit of a conundrum. I don't think this is even close to the end of the rally, but when a broad tech index like the Nasdaq is up 7% in such short order, some pullback and consolidation is increasingly likely. I'm no daytrader -- I'm more interested in catching the meat of a multi-month move than a multi-week move. So I trim just a little bit here and there to free up some ammo and adjust risk as my calls kick in.
There's both good and evil in the market, but the bulls certainly have a new hope. At least for now, but we must recognize that there are a lot more episodes to come.
Futures are mostly flat. More soon.
P.S.: I find it interesting that my version of Windows Word recognizes the correct spelling of Vader and not of blog.
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Gapping Up
NFLX +16% (announces a joint promotional agreement with Wal-Mart), BIVN +9.3% (started with a Buy at UBS; tgt $11), CKR +5.1%, TIBX +4.2% (started with a Buy at Needham; tgt $9), GIVN +3.5% (says Humana revises its capsule endoscopy reimbursement policy), MOH +2.5%, MOT +2.1% (authorizes $4 bln stock repurchase program)... Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: PSS +27%, CRM +10.5% (also upgrades from Pru and Piper Jaffray), PETM +8.9%, DEBS +8.4%, BEAS +5.3% (also Jefferies upgrade), AAP +5.1%.
Gapping Down
CYBX -15% (Senate to examine FDA's handling of adult depression treatment), KMG -7% (to buy 46.7 mln shares in Dutch auction for $85/sh), INTU -3.7% (reports AprQ), CBRL -5.2% (reports AprQ), PLCE -3% (reports AprQ), CHINA -5.2% (reprots Q1), SSCC -2.6% (Morgan Stanley downgrade), SNPS -2% (reports AprQ), SNY -1.5%. -
G. B. Smith:
Ja 1 graafik ka pikema horisondiga koos järgneva kommentaariga:
All of which makes another 12 years of sideways movement a great argument to adopt a short-term trading approach. Up or down, traders of that ilk can always find ways to make money. It's the long-term buy-and-holders who will generally struggle.
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LHV Pro all ka üks uus investeerimisidee. Tegemist on lühianalüüsiga, millele järgneb nädalavahetusel pikem ning põhjalikum
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Able Labs (ABRX) on päris kole. Võtsin ülipisikese positsiooni (money to lose). Tegemist on ühega vähestest järelejäänud pure-play koopiaravimite tootjatest. Eon Labs (ELAB) osteti mõne aja eest NVS poolt ära.
Toonitan, et positsioon on pikemajalisem ja ülipisike,
sB -
5.60 pealt on keskmine.
sB -
ABRX $7.
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Päris naljakas värk jah. Oleks oodanud mingit hulka reitingualandusi täna hommikul.
sB -
14:39 ABRX Able Labs strength attributed to market rumor that Carl Icahn's group has been accumulating shares (3.60 +0.21)
sB -
Üldiselt on ABRX'i kohta LHV Pro kommentaaride ja kolumnite all veidi pikemalt juttu. Mõned päris huvitavad fondid on aktsiaid praegustel tasemetel või isegi veidi kõrgemalt kokkuostmas olnud.
sB -
ABRX langes järelturul ca 23%. Põhjuseks iga-aastase koosoleku ärajätmine. Selge see, et põhjused ärajätmiseks on tõsised, kuid kas see ei ole ülereageering? Tahetakse kogu energia panna ju probleemide lahendamisele ja see on ju hoopiski positiivne? Ostsin ise 3.60-ga. Mida arvate: kas kauplemiseks tuleks teisipäevahommikust allamüüki kasutada ostuks?
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Tundub küll ülereaktsioonina. Non-material event.
sB -
To Bettie: Milline oleks prognoos - mis oleks lühim aeg pankrotini või nimekirjast väljaarvamiseni? Mis kogemused ütlevad?
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Ma ei usu, et chap 11 tuleb.
sB -
16:07 ABRX Able Labs receives inspectional observations from FDA (2.88 -0.17) ...
Co announced that it had received from the FDA a list of Inspectional Observations made by the agency in connection with the events that led to the recall of its products and suspension of manufacturing operations. The Form 483, along with co's response, will be posted on ABRX's web site as the Company files its response with the FDA. The ongoing disruption in the Company's operations caused by its product recall and the suspension of manufacturing activities has had, and will continue to have, a material adverse effect on the Company's results of operations and financial position. Able can give no assurance, though, as to if or when it will be able to resolve the regulatory issues with the FDA or resume manufacturing operations. Co is continuing to review these and related matters with representatives of the FDA and other government agencies and with its consultants, and is evaluating all potential strategic options available to it in light of the regulatory and financial issues it faces, including the possibility of seeking relief under the bankruptcy laws.
Ühesõnaga chap 11 tõenäosus tõsusis. Equity ei pruugi sellel juhul eriti midagi väärt olla.
Still long some. Ei hakka vist müüma.
ABRX kaupleb $1.80 after hrs.
sB -
Õnneks juurde ei võtnud. Esmaspäeval realiseerin aktsiad kindlasti=kahjum sisse. Ega vist teiste maade aktsiatega on sama, et enne ei saa kajhumiks näidata, kui müüdud? Kui tuleb pankrott, siis millal saab kahjumit näidata, on kellelgi kogemusi?
