Börsipäev 25-26. mai
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Rev Shark:
A Watched Market Doesn't Pull Back
5/25/05 8:19 AM ET"Stubbornness is the strength of the weak."
-- Johann Kaspar Lavater
Very few things are as frustrating as dealing with someone who refuses to be reasonable. Even if what you are urging them to do is beneficial, they shun your logic and stubbornly persist in a course of action that will lead to unpleasant results.
And so it is with the stock market. The buyers have had a great run but stubbornly refuse to relent. They have the advantage and continue to press, which has left the indices extremely extended and vulnerable to a sharp pullback.
The problem with extended markets is that buyers become increasingly reluctant to buy. Some buyers are willing to chase things ever higher but the more conservative and risk-adverse bull will only do so to a certain degree. They want attractive entry points and solid technical setups and will step aside until those things develop.
The problem with an extended market is that when a correction kicks in it can be extremely sharp. Lots of folks have lots of gains to protect and at the first signs that a pullback is on the way they head for the exits. The profits that have been accumulating for weeks are suddenly reduced sharply as everyone tries to run through the exit doors at the same time.
The dip buyers who have been so anxious to find entry points suddenly decide that it might be a good idea to wait while the selling plays out. There is a vacuum of bids and we pull back sharply.
Only after that occurs can the market regain its footing and build the conditions to continue its move higher. Selling is needed to shake out short-term traders and weak holders and replace them with a new crop of bulls who have greater conviction.
Trying to determine when an extended market like we have now will correct or consolidate is a very difficult task. Many folks were looking for a pullback last week but found themselves as fodder for a short squeeze. The FOMC minutes yesterday, which were slightly hawkish, would have been an excellent catalyst for a pullback but once again too many folks were leaning the wrong way and the market held steady.
We may be seeing a little delayed reaction to the FOMC news this morning. Futures are weak and buyers are standing aside. Oil is up a little and overseas markets were generally weak. We have the durable goods report at 8:30 a.m. EDT and the new-home sales reports at 10 a.m. EDT, which will cause a market jiggle or two.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
VC +28% (agrees to a deal with Ford on restructuring), EYET +9.2% (announces that it will hold a conf call to reiterate confidence in Macugen), TTN +5% ( L-3 and Titan move closer to merger - WSJ), ENCY +4.8% (completes FDA new drug application), KERX +4.7% (started with an Overweight at JP Morgan; $24 tgt), AUDC +3.3%, SNSA +2.7%, TLAB +2.7% (Morgan Stanley upgrade).... Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: HURC +29%, JLG +6.2%, CNLG +21%... Stem cell stocks strong on House passage of stem cell bill: ASTM +5.2%, VIAC +5%, STEM +4.7%... Under $3: CPN +18% (launches strategic initiative), GNVC +11% (FDA allows co to resume drug trials).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: NTAP -4.3%, EGHT -7.6%, SEAC -5% (also Merriman downgrade).... Other News: BTRX -20% (gets non-approval letter from FDA for Zimycan; CE Unterberg downgrade), ALTI -6.1% (director resigns stemming from a disagreement about operations, policies or practices), ABRX -3.2% (extends yesterday's 26% drop), PLUG -3.1%, ISIL -2.2% (Morgan Keegan downgade), JRCC -1.8% (prices 3.5 mln shares at $32.50/sh). -
Repligen (RGEN) upgraded to Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw; tgt $4.50
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Gapping Up
ELN +9% (CEO sees Tysabri drug return to the market for MS - Bloomberg.com), WIND +7.6% (reports AprQ; Keybanc upgrade), POSS +6.7% (First Albany upgrade), BLDP +5.6% (gets $30 mln funding), VC +3.2% (Deutsche upgrade), TOL +3.2% (reports AprQ), EYET +2.6% (hosting Macugen conf call), TIVO +2.4% (co reports after the close), DOC +4.8% (announces project funded by USDA; up in sympathy: ADSX +4%), TASR +2.3%, FVRL +21% (mentioned by analyst on CNBC).... Under $3: SRXA +34%, TGEN +16% (to present data at a conference), SFLK +12% (partners with Microsoft to solicit interest in a privatized version of the Registered Traveler program), RGEN +11% (Rodman & Renshaw upgrade).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: PDCO -10%, PETCE -9.4%, NOVL -8.3%.... Other News: IMMU -6% (receives notice of desliting), BCS -5% (debt warning). -
Rev Shark:
Bad Bets Will Help Keep This Market in Place
"You know, sometimes, when they say you're ahead of your time, it's just a polite way of saying you have a real bad sense of timing."
-- George McGovern
When a market has made a move as strong as this one has, timing becomes particularly tricky. It is never easy to time the market accurately but when there is extremely strong momentum coupled with overbought conditions it is easy to find yourself leaning the wrong way.
The primary issue at a juncture like this is very easy to frame. Will strong momentum help prevent a major pullback, or will extreme overbought conditions result in a more aggressive correction? To try to get a little insight into that question we should consider two major groups of shareholders. First, the bears and underinvested bulls who were positioned badly and have not benefited from this market move. These folks are likely to be buyers on weakness. They are the folks who need a pullback to help them reposition better and are inclined to buy pullbacks.
The second key group at this time are the folks who are better positioned -- the bulls who caught the meat of this move and the bears who have been patient and have not put on major short positions yet. These folks are the primary downside drivers. If the market shows signs of cracking, the well-positioned bulls will sell in order to protect profits and the patient bears will start building their short positions.
So which group is more dominate at this time? Are there more folks poorly positioned or are there lots of bulls with profits to protect and bears with heavy ammunition? I tend to lean toward the theory that this strong market move caught a lot of people by surprise and many are still poorly positioned, and they are going to keep any pullback from becoming too drastic. They missed the big move up and they sure aren't going to miss the next one.
The least likely scenario right now is that the market simply rolls over and goes straight down. The buyers have simply been too strong lately to disappear suddenly. We continue to see them pounce on the most minor of dips and be buyers in the closing hour. They will likely relent in this extremely aggressive action but they will provide a bid for this market until they suffered some repeated losses from trying to buy the dips.
I continue to look for more of a market correction but I don't expect it to be drastic. I'm holding plenty of long positions but am also well hedged. I hope to remove my hedges as the indices pull back and try to find some support.
We have positive early action and I'm not sure what the driver is. European stocks were stronger, Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE) posted a very good report and there seems to be some optimism in front of the first-quarter GDP revision. I don't see much else to explain the upbeat early action other than that many folks feel pretty good about the market.
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G. B. Smith:
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selline küsimus tekkis
et kui müün aktsiad siis on t+3
aga kui t päeval ostan optsiooni ja siis müün ka veel samal päeval
optsiooni puhul siis t+1
kunas siis raha kätte saab?
kas ikka tuleb see t+3 ära oodata? -
Kui müüd on raha kohe kontol, mida uuesti investeerida. Kui välja tahad võtta, siis pead ikka T+3 ära ootama.
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yanek
optsiooni müügi järel saab raha välja kanda järgmisel päeval (t+1), uute tehingute jaoks kohe kasutada peale müüki -
Nasdaq Composite volatiilsust mõõtev $VXN indeks tegi kõigi aegade põhja (14.97). Varsti olukord sealmaal, et tasub VBI futuuriga taas volatiilsuse tõusule mängida. Praegu veel passin.
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Inteli graafik on ikka päris karm,12.järjestikune tõusupäev
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bivn symbol muuts eile bivne-s. kas see muutus jouab ka virtuaalportfelli,voi pean selle eilse hinnaga maha myyma?
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Suvi on küll volatiilsuse suhtes vaiksem aeg, kuid usun, et juuni futuuriga volatiilsuse tõusule mängida praegu üsna mõistlik. Võimendus selle instrumendi puhul tugev 10 punkti 1000 USD, soetada saab praegu 128 kandist.
Sümbol Traderis VBI ja tähtaeg siis juuni.
