Börsipäev 10. juuni
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Sell Intel's Midquarter News
Is Intel's (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research) midquarter update Thursday night likely to be a catalyst for it to move higher? Should we be looking to buy Intel in front of that report, as Jim Cramer suggests? Not unless you enjoy the adrenalin rush of a high-risk gamble.
It is a mistake to focus on fundamentals and the possibility that estimates will be increased at this point. This is all about psychology right now, not numbers.
The stock has gone up in a straight line from $23.50 because everyone in the world already is expecting guidance to be very good. The folks who bought this stock a month ago and are holding aren't looking to buy more. They will be looking for ways to maximize their exit points, and that means to sell when the news is good.
This is a classic sell-the-news setup. The stock has made a big move already, and good news is widely anticipated. Big holders have their fingers on the sell button and will be hitting it on any positive news short of an announcement that Osama bin Laden has been captured and is being held in an Intel factory. If the news is less than stellar, the sellers won't be able to all squeeze through the exit doors.
If you like to gamble, go to Vegas where you can do it in style. The odds of Intel moving significantly higher on its midquarter update are worse than hitting the jackpot on a nickel slot machine.
Rev Shark /RM/ -
Inteli gross margin on kas väga konservatiivne või ongi tipp saavutatud.. kui notepade (=rahalehm) müüakse sellisel hulgal ja ikkagi gross margin vaid napilt kõrgem varasematest prognoosidest, siis pole eriti edasist upside'i näha.. Ootaks korralikku kasumivõtmist täna.
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saame näha, arvan, et erilist langust küll ei tule, max -2%
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Rev Shark:
Best Way to Move Ahead Is to Hold Your Ground
6/10/05 8:34 AM ET"I hate to have to fight for the same ground twice."
-- General George Patton
When the market has had a big rally like we have had over the last six weeks, we are forced to wrestle with the problem of protecting our recent profits while not sacrificing our ability to rack up future gains. How do we avoid giving back gains while not being so defensive that we miss out on current opportunities?
One of the most frustrating and debilitating things that can happen to a trader is to have a big gain and let it slip away. Not only does it sap us of our emotional energy, it is a sure way to produce lackluster performance. When you have to regain the same ground twice, you use up a lot of your ammunition and have to expend a lot of energy. It is easier to dig in, stay patient and then work to move forward.
We are at a juncture now where we need to be more defensive and jealously guard the ground we have gained in recent weeks. If you have been bullish, you should have some decent profits on the books, and it is very important to be miserly about giving any of it back.
All you have to do is look at what happened to so many folks when the market bubble popped in early 2000. Those who played defense and protected gains ended up so much further ahead of those who held on as gains eroded that the magnitude of difference in performance is hard to even imagine. The best way to keep building up your portfolio is to not have to earn the same profits over and over.
I bring up this topic this morning because I'm concerned about the increasing choppiness of the market. We have had alternating bouts of weakness and strength lately, and the bulls are looking tired. Also, as I mentioned several times yesterday, I'm concerned that the Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) midquarter update may be catalyst for a sell-the-news reaction. Everyone expected good news, and then when they got it, the stock traded down.
Being defensive and protecting recent gains doesn't mean you have to forgo any buying. Even when the market looks ripe for a pullback or consolidation, there will still be stocks worth buying. You can still play some offense while focusing on your defense. Just make sure to be zealous about protecting gains. It is a lot easier to find new opportunities than to make up profits you let fizzle.
Early indications this morning look mixed. Overseas markets were perky on optimism about semiconductors. Oil is flat, the dollar is strong, and gold is down.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
HRS +12% (increases Y06 guidance), OPMR +4.5% (increases Q2 guidance), UBET +5% (C.E.O. appears on CNBC), OII +4.3% (mentioned on CNBC), LSI +3.2% (guides higher), CRXL +3% (says antibody against West Nile Virus shows promise), TIBX +4% (mentioned on CNBC), BEAS +3% (mentioned on CNBC)... Momentum energy stocks keep running: BDCO +8%, USEG +7%, ROYL +4.3%, GEOI +3.5%... Under $3: FUEL +18% (with energy momentum stocks up again, traders seeking secondary names that have not run as much), IMMU +10% (clinical data).
Gapping Down
INTC -1% (mid-qtr update; raises Q2 rev estimate; appears to be sell-the-news reaction), NAPS -5.6% (Microsoft planning music subscription service - CNET), SHFL -5.4% (reports AprQ; beats by $0.01), DSTI -3.5% (profit taking after 61% move yesterday), RNWK -3% (Microsoft planning music subscription service - CNET), WFMI -3% (UBS downgrade), SOSA -2.3%, PCU -2.1% (prices offering).... Under $3: FNSR -9% (reports AprQ), NT -6% (COO and CTO resign). -
kaubandusdefitsiit väheneb, peagi USD üle 13 eegu
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Kust sa seda vähenemist näed? Ajalooliselt on defitsiit olnud kõrgem ainult kolmel korral, samas võrdluseks 2004 aprillil oli defitsiit 'ainult' $48,5 miljardit.
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Pange pahaks või võtke heaks, 25.05.2005.`st kuni tänaseni on foorumi
lobamokkade top 20 suures joones selline.
68 kristjan.lepik
40 SideKick
34 Henno Viires
33 henryhenry
32 suffiks
31 stefan
28 liisy
23 riq
21 ruuki
19 fire
17 johngray
17 Buhvet
17 CharlieF
17 tehvlon
15 rick12
14 aivo33
13 MSM
13 privador
13 Velikij
12 koto -
noh, TOP3e ma lobamokkade topiks ei nimetaks...
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Oleks ka hea meelega topis, aga pole nii suur turgude spetsialist, et tihedamini sõna võtaks:)
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Ootame ametlikud tulemused ära.
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Huvitav kuidas henryhenry selle TOP-i välja punnitas, kuid otse andmebaasist päringut tehes saan ma perioodi 25.05.2005-10.06.2005 kohta mõneti teised tulemused - kristjan.lepik esikohal 78 punktiga, henryhenry teisel 77 punktiga ning stefan kolmandal 44 punktiga (üks punkt siis üks postitus).
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huvi pärast oleks mõnus vaadata kogu top-i. ja siis mitte ainult 25.05-10.06
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Siin on ainult kvantiteet ära toodud, kvaliteedi faktorit peaks ka arvestama. Ehk siis lobamokad on eelkõige sellised mõtetu_möla_mehed.
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henryhenry edu on seletatav ilmselt "Kommentaaride lisamise mõttekuse kalkulaatori" kasutamisega - kui hakkab TOPist välja langema, siis ...... ANNA MINNA!
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lauris71
FED-i tegevusse on defitsiidi vähenemine,paremal juhul paigalseis,sisse kirjutatud.
Lühike kirjeldus siin järgnevast 3-9 kuust
FED jätkab intressimäära kergitamist
USA tarbija külmub vähendades sellega ka nõudlust krediidi järele
kinnisvara hinnatõus peatub sarnaselt UK-le ja Austraaliale
riski võtmise soov kodumajapidamiste poolt väheneb seejärel veelgi pärssides taaskord edasist nõudlust laenude järele,mis omakorda tähendab väiksemat dollari emissiooni,mis tähendab tugevamat USD-d
tugev USD mõjub halvasti kohalikule ja globaalsele majandusele
FED peatab intressimäära kergitamise
USD tugevnemine peatub -
Henryhenry,
Kas Sinu järgmine suurem aktsioon võiks olla:
* 109 allkirja kogumine LHV foorumite vastu?;
* LHV "Esilobamoka" vallandamine?;
* LHV-le katuse (_ja_põranda_) pakkumine?
* sellise vidina leiutamine millega saaks sirgeid jooni tõmmata?
...
Äkki võtad hoogu maha ja hoiad ennast alanud suveks. Sellises tempos jätkates saavad Sul sõnad otsa ja ega neid tarku mõtteidki tea´kui kauaks ei jätku. Ja keegi ei viitsi ju neid foorumeid lugeda, kui pidevalt loodad, et keegi midagi asjalikku on lisanud ja siis selgub, et ... -
Kusjuures ma olen popmarti prognoosiga suures osas nõus. Samal ajal Euroopa majandus tiksub vaikselt samal kohal.
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Henryhenry asjalikud mõtted leiavad pärast suve esimesel septembril jälle rakendust. :) Aga henryhenry miks sa oma blogi ei tee? Siis saaksid PIIRAMATULT mõelda, fantaseerida ja arutleda. Saaks toreda huumorilingi :)
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jyri heero, ehk erinevad sinu ja henryhenry tabelid nõnda märkimisväärselt selle poolest, et henryhenry arvestas ainult neid foorumiposte, kus ÜberSügavKasulik mõte sees on...
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popmart,
ma põhimõtteliselt nõustuks ka su prognoosiga, aga minu meelest on probleemiks see, et punktid 2 ja 3 ja 4 (tarbija külmumine ja kinnisvarahinnatõusu peatumine) ei ole juhitavad. Selleks, et see stsenaarium peale sinu pakutud 6 kuu möödumist kaosesse ei pöörduks, peab väga palju asju väga täpselt realiseeruma - ja ainult intressidega mängimisega seda ei garanteeri. -
DNDN (jätkuvalt LHV esikümnes) CFO astus tagasi. Prognoos: hind tõuseb, kuna aktsia armastab vastuvoolu liikuda.
