Börsipäev 23. juuni
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Rev Shark:
Johnny-Buy-Latelies Might Keep Market Moving
6/23/05 8:33 AM ET"It is not good enough for things to be planned -- they still have to be done; for the intention to become a reality, energy has to be launched into operation."
-- Pir Vilayat Khan
The market has been lacking one essential ingredient: energy. The action of the past five days or so hasn't been bad but the buyers just can't seem to generate the energy and drive needed to pop this market through overhead resistance and take us higher. We had a brief try yesterday morning but it fizzled quickly and we ended up with another meaningless day.
The question for us to consider is whether the recent flat action is allowing the market to build up the energy needed to produce a breakout that holds, or if this is the waning stage of a rally that began in April that is now running out of the fuel needed to move higher. It is particularly difficult to determine the answer to that question right now because action is a mixed bag.
From a bullish standpoint, the disregard of record crude oil prices is certainly a positive. After all, if the market can act this well as oil prices go up, what will it do if they suddenly start to drop? Another positive is that this two-month-long move in the market has left a lot of folks with lagging performance. They are anxious to catch up and that means that if the market perks up they are likely to be aggressive buyers.
If you follow the market closely it is very easy to overlook how many people don't really embrace the market until after it has made a big move. We have some commentators calling for a rally in technology stocks starting now, acting as if the already big move in the group off the April lows didn't even occur.
When you follow the market very closely it is easy to overestimate how late we are in a rally. If may seem very obvious to us that the move has been underway for some time but there are many casual investors who don't really recognize that the market is better until well after the improvement has occurred. Many of those folks are latecomers who will be burned badly, but they can definitely keep the market moving up even when it seems logical to many that a pullback is imminent.
There are some troubling signs in the recent action: trading has been choppy, there has been some aggressive profit taking in momentum stocks, there is some extreme speculative action in third-tier issues and the level of bullish complacency seems quite high.
My biggest fear is that the bulls have enough energy to stage a breakout but not enough to maintain it. A good breakout move that triggers buy stops and brings in new buyers is going to use up a lot of energy. If the bulls can't hold on after a break, the rush for the exits can be quite dangerous.
Frankly I'm not sure who to bet on at this point. The technical conditions are bullish but if the buyers don't find some energy soon things will turn bearish. My game plan is to not be overly anticipatory, and to focus on a quick reaction if and when a move out of the recent base develops.
We have a flat start with technology stocks perking up but some pressure on software. Oil is up again but overseas markets are in positive territory.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
JMDT +7.6% (continues momentum; coverage reinstated with a Buy at Kaufman; tgt $36), MNTA +20% (started with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $50), ITRI +5% (contract with Clemson University), WSCI +71% (reports Q3), VVUS +9% (clinical data), AMTD +5% (continues momentum following yesterday's TD Waterhouse offer; IRG upgrade), SWKS +5% (Mad Money mention), FCEL +4% (power plant selected for federal training facility), DHI +4% (to be added to S&P 500), EYET +4%, COGT +3% (started at Raymond James with tgt $31), AAPL +3% (positive analyst comments), RIMM +2% (More NTP patents are rejected - WSJ), SHLD +1.7% (CSFB inits with $180 tgt), BBY +1.7% (boosts dividend, 3-for-2 split)... Under $3: GNLB +33% (extends yesterday's 24% move), XOMA +6%, OPTV +5% (started at Kaufman with $4 tgt).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: COCO -17% (down in sympathy: CECO -4%, APOL -3%), DTPI -25% (also Legg Mason, Wachovia downgrades), STTX -11%, RAD -8%, ATYT -7.5%, FDX -3.3%, BBBY -3.3%, down with CVTI (halted): JBHT -1.3%, LSTR -1%.... Other News: FTEK -9% (Fulcrum downgrade), ESLR -5.4% (convertible note offering), GKIS -3.1%, WYNN -3.7% (extends exchange offer), SAP -1.5%... Under $3: ICOR -27% (to be delisted), IVAN -8% (suspends gas exploration in China's Sichuan Basin). -
Eilne WLDA presentatsioon oli investoritele meeleparane, tehti rekordarv tehinguid. 43% kauplejaist olid institutsionaalsed investorid. Afterhours ajal tehti 300000 kogusega tehing. Paeva l6puks oldi 9% up.
Momendil kaupleb WLDA $11 kandis + 3%, vaatame kuidas tana paev loppeb.
