Börsipäev 11. juuli
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Rev Shark:
First Step: Free Yourself
7/11/05 8:27 AM ET"It is the nature of every person to error, but only the fool perseveres in error."
-- Marcus T. Cicero
If you were to contemplate how the market might react to a terrorist attack, or crude oil over $61, or a hawkish Fed, or a weaker-than-expected jobs report, there is a good chance you would have made the mistake of thinking that it would react negatively. The more people who made that error the worse the damage that is done because they are all trying to reposition themselves at the same time.
If like me you were suspicious of the strength last week the important thing now is to set aside your emotions and try to carefully analyze the situation. Nothing can be more dangerous in the stock market than sticking to a position out of stubbornness or emotion. The worst traders and investors are those that refuse to admit their fallibility.
So do we ignore the logic that made us wrongly cautious last week and become wildly and enthuasiastically bullish? After all, we have vastly improved technical conditions after the move last week and the bulls have obviously regained some momentum.
There are two steps to take if you have been improperly positioned. The first, and by far the most important, is to get yourself out of harms way. Forget about making money and just make sure you don't do further damage by sticking to the view that got you in trouble. That means reposition yourself and take some losses rather than hope things will work out.
Once you have done that you are in position to more carefully and objectively evaluate where the market is headed. No matter how hard you try you will not be able to see things clearly if you are still too invested monetarily and mentally in a contrary opinion that has been wrong. Once you free yourself of that burden you can then be more objective.
The market looks like it is ready to continue its positive action from last week. The hurricane this weekend did less damage than expect and crude oil is trading down. The technical buyers see the market turning positive for the first time this year and that is encouraging them to put cash to work. The folks who missed the move last week are anxious to join the party. We have some positive merger and acquisition activity and bonds continue to falter.
There are a number of reasons why I don't think this breakout will hold but I'm going to set that opinion aside for now and not fight the momentum. I think earnings season will ultimately be the catalyst that sends the market back down but for now the bulls are in control and we have to respect that.
The market is looking very perky in the early going with a good boost from weak oil. However, as I've said many times it generally is a mistake to trust Monday morning strength. If this market is going to continue to the upside it is the reaction to the dips that will give us the best clues.
I'm neutrally positioned right now and will try to keep an open mind as things unfold. Good luck and go get 'em.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
DSTI +21% (announces purchase agreement for new TerraFoil-SP solar cells), DKHR +68% (to be acquired by McKesson), HELX +14% (to merge with BRKS), BNSO +20% (reports MarQ), IIJI +7.3% (extends Friday's 26% move), CRUS +6.6% (Piper upgrade), IGLD +6% (announces it is the first Israeli ISP to support the IPv6 protocol), SIRI +2.5%, NWAC +2%, EBAY +1.4% (launches PayPal local service in China).... Under $3: TTIL +12% (guides higher), GIGM +6%.
Gapping Down
WPTE -13% (evaluates unsolicited bid; needs to determine its credibility; LACOE -10% is a majority owner in WPTE), ABRX -38% (co says it may have to file for bankruptcy), DWA -10% (guides lower; discloses SEC probe; down in sympathy: PIXR -3%), STAA -5% (says FDA may seek enforcement action), LEXR -5% (court denies Lexar's injunction request against SNDK), KERX -5% (announces 5 mln share offering), HELE -3.3% (reports MayQ results), AFFX -1.8% (Baird downgrade). -
Turg oli reedel väga tugev, turul said olulised tasemed murtud - Nasdaq 2100 ja Dow Jones 10 400. Tuleb siiski arvestada, et eelmisel nädalal oli turg pühade tõttu lühem ja õhem, seega on sel nädalal väga oluline, et antud tasemeid suudetaks hoida.
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LHV Pro kauplemisidee PARL oli täna päeva alguses halted, nüüd tuli teade, et kaalutakse ettevõtte müüki.
Aktsia alustas just taas kauplemist, võtame $34 juurest kasumit (ca. +19%). -
No mis sel abesiki kommil siis viga oli? Minu arust ta ei mõelnud sellega ju absoluutselt üldse LHV-d??
