Börsipäev 13. juuli
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Rev Shark:
Market Will Re-Learn an Old Trick: Rolling Over
7/13/05 8:54 AM ET"More firm and sure the hand of courage strikes, when it obeys the watchful eye of caution."
-- James Thomson
Market success requires the ability to balance conflicting attributes. We must be aggressive, but also vigilant and cautious. The market can never be totally trusted but in order to make money -- any decent money -- that is exactly what we have to do. We must take on some risk but that doesn't mean that we can't be watchful and look for signs of trouble.
As I've written many times, trying to predict when a strong market will roll over and start going down is an extremely difficult task. Some of the best gains can come when the market appears to be quite extended and in need of a rest. We can sit on the sidelines and worry or we can be courageous put some money to work but make sure we stay vigilant.
Sooner or later this market will roll over. It is going to happen and in retrospect it will be extremely easy to see why it had to happen. There are already some good reasons for this market not to keep moving higher. It is becoming slightly technically extended, the bulls are increasingly complacent, crude oil is very strong and earnings season is an excellent catalyst for a 'sell the news' reaction. One of these things is likely to cause some trouble at some point and we have to monitor those issues carefully while we enjoy the upside for now.
Nothing makes me cringe more than seeing comments about 'loving this market'. Markets are like beautiful but unfaithful lovers. They play with your emotions and if you allow yourself to lose your objectivity and become too involved you will be hurt. Enjoy the experience but keep in mind that it definitely won't last. Be vigilant and watchful and skeptical but not so pessimistic that you ruin the joy that is available at the moment.
The market is showing a little perkiness to start the day. Overseas markets were generally positive, the dollar is up again and crude oil is holding near $61. Bonds continue to struggle as talk of asset reallocation into equities continues.
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Gapping Up
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: RECN +21% (also Baird upgrade), CPKI +9% (also BB&T and CIBC upgrades), HDI +6%, BWLD +12%, DTLK +47%... Other News: CAFE +24% (extends yesterday's 104% rally, CAFEW +47% also), ULGX +35% (gets FDA approval for its Cooled ThermoCath), BRLC +33% (to merge with Syntax Group), ACXM +6% (receives update on cash offer from ValueAct Partners), IIJI +4% (to provide broadcast of the space shuttle Discovery today), STEM +3.5%, PLCM +3% (Piper upgrade), STX +2.9% (Merrill Lynch upgrade), SYMC +1.8% (Merrill Lynch upgrade)... Under $3: AATK +7%.
Gapping Down
COOL -55% (guides lower, C.E.O. resigns), IFLO -16% (First Albany downgrade by 2 notches to Neutral), HCA -4.4% (Q2 guidance), EYE -3.1% (announces $150 mln convertible offering), ASML -3% (reports Q2), WLDA -3% (delays form 8-K filing), BSX -2.5% (stents show problems - WSJ). -
AMD (AMD)
sales of $1.260 billion
net income of $11 million, amounting to $0.03 per diluted share -
AMD tulemused paistavad päris korralikud. Gross margin üle ootuste, tänu sellele ka kasum vs oodatud kahjum. Gross margini paranemine peamiselt protsessorite arvelt.
Ka flashi unit näitas pisut elumärke. Kõige hullem möödas?
Stock halted. -
Eks muidugi ootused olid ka kõrgele kruvitud. Aktsia ju aprilli lõpu põhjadest ligi 35% kõrgemal! Eks varsti näis, kuidas uudis vastu võetakse, aga hetkel tundub jah, et üle ootuste hästi.
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Intel on veidi ülespoole tiksunud, see annab väikese indikatsiooni.
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Apple (AAPL)
EPS prelim $0.37 vs $0.30 Reuters consensus;
revs $3.52 bln vs $3.31 bln Reuters consensus
Mac Units 1.182 mln vs 1.16 mln Briefing.com consensus
iPod shipments 6.155 mln vs 5.45 mln Briefing.com consensus
sees Q4 $0.32 vs $0.32 Reuters consensus;
sees revs $3.5 bln vs $3.57 bln Reuters consensus
Esmapilgul tunduvad ka tugevad tulemused. Kardeti just iPod'ide alaljäämist prognoositule. Kuigi jah ... edasised prognoosid tagasihoidlikud.
