Börsipäev 15. juuli
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PLUG +19% (receives order for 63 fuel cell systems), CLWT +43% (reports 2004 year-end results), STEM +6.4% (extends momentum; stock up 30% in last 7 sessions), TRFX +15% (reports Q2 revs up 82%), ITRI +9.4% (contract with Progress Energy; raises guidance), BRLC +8%, JCTCF +6% (files 10-Q), CTAS +5.5% (beats by $0.02, beats on revs), NCC +4% (reports Q2), SONC +3.4% (Mad Money mention), HLTH +3.4% (subsidiary files for IPO), DCEL +3.1% (extends recent momentum; up 36% in last 7 sessions), EYET +2.7% (positive CSFB note), KERX +2.5% (prices offering), MCD +1.8% (reports June sales)... Under $3: EVOL +8% (says Swisscom Mobile implements EVOL system).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: IFIN -17%, ACI -5.5% (down in sympathy: MEE -4%), SBL -12% (also JP Morgan downgrade), RMBS -5.4%, JBHT -4.7%... Other News: NPTH -14% (FDA rejects Enpath device appeal), BOSC -6.4% (profit taking after 74% move yesterday), CBST -4.3% (RBC downgrade), CHIR -3.4% (cuts forecast for Begrivac Flu vaccine; also more studies needed on lung drug), RIGL -3.1% (prices share offering), ERTS -3% (delays Gofather game release date), AMLN -2.2% (unlikely stock will go up should Byetta's estimates come down - SG Cowen), ENTU -2.2% (Avondale downgrade), ARLP -1.6%, RIMM -1.2% (Motorola to introduce BlackBerry challenger - BWeek). -
Cady Willard:
A New Theory of Relativity
7/15/2005 8:10 AM EDTI hate the phrase, "It's all relative." Because not everything is relative. There's plenty of black and white out there. Trading the stock market is not one of those fine-line things. So much in the market is simply relative.
Look at this way: If we arbitrarily choose some dates and look at the performance of Nasdaq, we end up with performance figures so disparate that they look like misprints. The Nazz, after all, is up 125% or so in the last 10 years, or about a 8.5% average annual increase. Those returns aren't too shabby in a low inflation environment.
Of course, the Nazz is down 44% from its levels of 5 years ago, or about an 8% average annual decline. Brutal results.
And year to date, the Nazz is down 1%, or about 2% if extrapolated out for the full year. But wait, there's more: Since May 1, the Nazz has rallied 14%, or about 67% annualized.
Clearly, stocks are fairly valued, undervalued, fairly valued and overvalued, respectively. It's all relative, isn't it? Sigh.
The strong rally off the spring lows won't be sustainable at its current pace. It's pretty safe to say that the Nazz won't likely be up another 30% or so between now and the end of the year (though such a run wouldn't be an impossibility either -- stranger things have happened). And it's likely that sometime soon, we're going to get another selloff, or at the very least another multiweek consolidation phase like we had in June. Stocks just don't go straight up.
I'm not looking or trying to capture the swings in the short term like that. Long-time readers will recall that after being cautious heading into the year I got aggressively bullish in the spring. More recently, I have had increasingly sizeable index and stock-short hedges as this rally has continued, despite most traders' certainty that it can't last. I've been mostly a net seller into this latest strength, as I try to reduce some of that long exposure into the strength. I still expect higher stock prices between now and year-end. But although I'm not looking to capture short-term swings, I don't want to ignore the concept of hedging after a big run.
Futures are flattish, reflecting how obvious it is that stocks are fairly valued... Finally, I'll ask one more time -- is there anybody out there excited?!
Gary B. Smith:
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GOOGil on kombeks optsioonireeded lõpetada grammipealt strike'il või siis umbes pooltel kordadel tiba strike'ist eemal. Ilmekas oli eelmine kuu, kus viimase 10 kauplemisminuti jooksul heideti hind 2 puuduolevat punkti kenasti $280-le.
Kuna aktsia kallinedes on strike'ide vahe veninud juba $10ni, siis on nö magnetina tõmbava strike'i ja suuna leidmine kergem kui varem. Hetkel hind $302 ja väga head võimalust ei paku, aga kui ta peaks sealt kuhugipoole veel ära käima, siis võib see jõrmidele meestele olla hea vägakiire kauplemisvõimalus.
