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Börsipäev 19. juuli

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  • Lisaks eilsele IBMile on täna tulnud veel ridamisi ootusi ületavaid tulemusi. Citigroup on praegu ainukesena musta lamba rollis.

    08:09 JNJ Johnson & Johnson beats by $0.02 (64.60 )
    Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.93 per share, ex items, $0.02 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.91; revenues rose 11.1% year/year to $12.76 bln vs the $12.62 bln consensus.

    07:40 MER Merrill Lynch beats on EPS, revs (56.67 )
    Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.14 per share, $0.06 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.08; revenues rose 1.5% year/year to $6.32 bln vs the $5.79 bln consensus.

    07:16 F Ford Motor beats by $0.14; reaffirms FY05 guidance (10.93 )
    Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.47 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.33; Co reports automotive sales of $38.69 bln vs the $36.72 bln consensus. Co issues reaffirms guidance for FY05, sees EPS of $1.00-1.25, ex items vs. $1.07 consensus.

    07:07 LU Lucent beats by a penny (3.13 )
    Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $0.05 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.04; revenues rose 6.8% year/year to $2.34 bln vs the $2.37 bln consensus.
  • Able Laboratories (ABRX) files for voluntary Chapter 11 reorganization ... -36%
  • "One gift creates appreciation, many gifts create expectation."

    -- Tony Bright

    Earnings season kicks off in earnest today with several high-profile companies reporting. There are over 1,200 earnings reports due out this week but it is the reaction to the likes of Intel, IBM, Juniper, Yahoo! and several others that will set the tone for the market.

    The market reaction to earnings is primarily a function of expectations. When optimism and expectations are high it can take more than simply exceeding estimates to generate a favorable response.

    Intel is going to be the key stock to watch tonight to determine the market's expectations. Virtually everyone is expecting strength in notebook computer chips to produce a very strong quarter. The Wall Street Journal Heard on the Street column discusses this is some detail this morning. The question isn't whether Intel will beat estimates but whether it will beat them by enough to generate a favorable reaction. So how good of a report is needed for the stock to move higher? I don't know for sure, but I'm guessing a pretty darn good one.

    IBM (IBM:NYSE) is pushing the market higher this morning with a very solid earnings report. Expectations there weren't particularly high so the strong report was a nice gift for the bulls. Reports from Ford Motor (F:NYSE) and Merrill Lynch (MER:NYSE) are also helping the cause.

    Last week I put forth my thesis that the market will top out tonight on good reports from Intel, Yahoo! and several others. I continue to feel there is a very high likelihood that will occur. Intel has been a turning point for the market many times in the past and it is set up both technically and psychological to be so again.

    So we have a somewhat technically extended market, a high level of complacency and a large number of investors expecting earnings reports well ahead of estimates. It is going to be tough to keep the current uptend going unless we see some spectacular news. That doesn't mean it's time to be heavily short but we should have plans for defensive action if expectations prove to be too optimistic.

    We have a strong start today on the IBM news but the market is likely to start looking forward to tonight's earnings reports rather quickly. Overseas markets were mixed to slightly higher. Gold is down again as the dollar continues its strong action and oil is up slightly.

  • Gapping Up

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: IBM +4.3% (also First Albany upgrade), DESC +26%, SHOO +21%, TIE +7%, FILE +5.5%, CHKP +5.4% (also UBS upgrade), CDWC +5%, IUSA +4.4%, XTO +4%, SEPR +3.9%, MER +2.4%, F +1.7%... Other News: IP +13% (to restructure operations, businesses may be sold), CPTS +22% (receives FDA approval), SPIR +17% (receives solar order), BWNG +16% (announces will make payment to debt holders), SPPI +13% (started with a Strong Buy at First Albany; tgt $8), CAFE +9.4% (continued momentum), ISON +6% (launches initiative to win Homeland Security contracts), WPCS +6% (wins new contracts), CAT +3.3% (Mad Money mention), ORCT +3.2% (bounces after 9% drop yesterday), SNDK +2.5% (Bear Stearns upgrade)... Under $3: CNLG +35% (announces orders), GENR +5%.

    Gapping Down

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: TZOO -8.4%, AVP -8.7% (also Fulcrum downgrade), FARO -7%, ICBC -3.6%, SNY -2.9%, STT -2.7%, FRX -1.8%, Other News: ALGN -13%, VIAC -4.7%, PSUN -2.4% (CSFB downgrade), AZN -2.1%, CUK -1.4%... Under $3: AGCC -40% (expects covenant default following disappointing financial results), ABRX -36% (files for bankruptcy).
  • ABRX on hetkel vaid -10%. Miks ei ole ta hind nulli lähedane, kui on sisse antud pankrotitaotlus? Palun jagage kogemusi.
  • Briefing soovitas eile õhtul tehnilise pildi järgi AGPs pikaks minekut kaaluda, aga nüüd sootuks peatati kauplemine. Midagi on teoksil.
  • Selline lugu siis:

    AGP Amerigroup cuts 2005 forecast; gives Q2 guidance (44.74 )

    The co expects Q2 EPS of $0.42-$0.43 vs $0.49 consensus. Co lowers 2005 EPS guidance to $1.73-$1.78 from its previous guidance of $1.90-$1.98, vs $1.93 consensus. The reduced forecast is primarily due to startup costs associated with entering new markets and programs; transitional expenses related to the reorganization of its wholly owned Illinois subsidiary, AMERIGROUP Illinois; and a recent adverse medical cost trend in certain markets due to higher unit costs. The Q2 change is due to adverse unit cost pressure in New Jersey and Florida; increased medical utilization in Fort Worth due to membership absorbed in the 2H04 as a result of the exit of the only other competitor in that market; and the high incidence of flu in the first and second quarter of 2005, which increased medical costs in the second quarter. The co is reducing its liability for claims uncertainty in the quarter.
  • ABRX läheb ülesostmisele, või miks ta täna nii rallib?
  • Classic trading opportunity - osta kõvasti kukkunud aktsiat pärast pankrotiuudise teatavakstegemist.
  • mul ka näpud sügelesid eelturul, aga tehinguni ei jõudnud, +50% jäi saamata, :(
  • mul on kõvasti ABRX` i käes ja olen sellega enam-vähem nullis, kas keegi soovitaks, kas müün maha või...
  • Henno, see % lugemine on monikord selline libe tee: crapi 50% on tavaliselt absoluutvaartuses vaiksem kasum kui mone korraliku aktsia 3-4% tousu puhul:) Ja neid korralikke tousjaid on tana parasjagu, kullap oled nendega suurema dollarihunniku teeninud:)

  • ABRX lihtsalt short covering. Need kes tegid oma beti firma vastu võtavad kasumit. Mulle tundub, et ABRXst enam elulooma ei saa.

    still long some,

    sB
  • Täna õhtune tulemusteparaad:

    Intel (INTC)
    Juniper (JNPR)
    Motorola (MOT)
    Novellus (NVLS)
    Yahoo! (YHOO)

    Esimene ja viimane ka võimega turgu liigutada.
  • Hinnad koos ootustega kõrged, aga kunagi ei ole nii kallid, et kallimaks minna ei saa. Eks aeg näitab.
  • Look for Stocks Where News Isn't Priced In
    7/19/2005 3:06 PM EDT
    I couldn't disagree more with Jim Cramer's column suggesting that it's a good idea to buy Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), Motorola (MOT:NYSE) and Seagate (STX:NYSE) in front of earnings. Maybe Jim is correct and they will have good stories to tell but that is already known. Why have these stocks been so strong recently? Because the story is already known and already priced in to a great extent.

    Of course these companies have a good story to tell, but that isn't the issue at this point. The issue is how much of it is priced in. If you glance at a chart and note that both Intel and MOT are already up 27% since April, you have to suspect that this market isn't going to be at all surprised by good numbers and a story.

    The way to make money in the market is to look for situations in which good news isn't already greatly discounted. Big-cap stocks like those three aren't the place to find it.

    It's a matter of style to some extent but I'll bet that these stocks will all offer better entry points within a week or so after earnings than they do right now.

  • Intel (INTC)

    EPS $0,33 vs oodatud EPS $0,33
    käive $9,23 mld vs oodatud käive $9,22 mld
    marginaalid 56,3% vs oodatud marginaalid umbes 57%

    prognoos päris tugev
    käive $9,6 kuni $10,2
    marginaalid 60%
  • Yahoo järelturul miinuses peale päevast 3,14% tõusu:
    After Hours (RT-ECN): 34.87 - 2.86 (-7.58%); volume on mul kahjuks teadmata ...
  • Väljavõtteid YHOO konsolideeritud tulemustest:

    Revenues were ... 51 percent increase compared for the same period of 2004...
    Marketing services revenue was ... 51 percent increase compared ........for the same period of 2004...
    Fees revenue was ... a 45 percent increase compared ......for the same period of 2004...
    Revenues excluding traffic acquisition costs ("TAC") were ... a 44 percent increase ...
    Gross profit for the second quarter of 2005 was ... a 43 percent increase ...

    Net income for the second quarter of 2005 was $755 million or $0.51 per diluted share (including net income of $563 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, related to the sale of an investment). This compares with net income of $113 million or $0.08 per diluted share for the same period of 2004.

    Samas järelturg üha kukub: After Hours (RT-ECN): 33.96 - 3.77 (- 9.99%). Kas veab ka turu kaasa?



  • Nüüd tuleb võimas korrektsioon. Selge ostukoht pikas perspektiivis. Intel -4.4%, YHOO -10%. Ma juba kartsin... et turg lähebki ära.

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