Börsipäev 1. august
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Rev Shark:
Timing Isn't Everything
8/1/2005 8:41 AM EDT"The misfortunes hardest to bear are these which never came."
-- James Russell Lowell
The toughest thing for most investors in July was believing in this market. There were plenty of good reasons to expect that the rally that began back in April was going to come to an end: Stocks were extended, interest rates were creeping up and crude oil was close to record levels. If you wanted to find a good reason this market couldn't keep going, it wasn't hard to do.
As many market participants have been learning lately, anticipating market misfortune can be very painful. It doesn't matter how compelling you think your arguments may be for why the market is ready to roll over, because the market doesn't listen to logic. It just keeps rolling along and does an excellent job of making fools of those who dare to predict when it might change course.
Although it generally is a poor idea to anticipate market misfortunes, that doesn't mean we can't increase our vigilance. We can maintain a bullish bias until the market clearly breaks down and we can avoid the pain of giving back big chunks of our gains by setting tight stops, taking profits into strength and dumping our stocks that are lagging.
It isn't necessary that we try to time the market by being a raging bull one day and a growling bear the next. We can make incremental changes in our market exposure as things evolve. If you have long positions that are acting well, there is no reason to rush out and sell them as you attempt to time the market. On the other hand, if you have concerns about how extended the market is, you might handle the way you trade those stocks a bit differently.
It is difficult not to be at least a little cautious about the market at this juncture. Certainly there is good upside momentum but we are technically extended and as earnings season winds down the upside catalyst will dissipate. Summer vacations on going to kick in and with the recent gains there will be folks happy to lock them in before they load the kids into the minivan and head for the beach.
I feel a bit out of touch with the market after taking time off to move to a new house. I'm holding a fair amount of momentum stocks and various oil plays and am somewhat hedged with ETF's. There is some very strong speculative action in smaller secondary stocks and until that dies down, the market should offer some good trading action.
Oil is up again but the market seems unconcerned once again. Overseas markets are positive.
Thanks to Cody and Charles for doing a great job filling in during my absence but if they really want to help I still have a piano and a lot of boxes I could use some help with.
Gary B. Smith:
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“Greed is always hard to measure. Assuredly we saw “tech stock” greed back in the late 1990s, just like we are seeing “real estate” greed currently. Yet, we have seen greed before. In the 1960s it was the “go go” stocks epitomized by bowling alleys, color TVs, conglomerates, Alaskan oil, Florida land, double knits, air pollution, soft contact lenses, etc.
In the 1970s it was all about commodities. In the early 1980s, other than in oil, nobody was greedy after index-type mutual funds had returned ZERO capital appreciation for 16 years, save their dividend yield, which for the major indices at the 1982 bottom was over 6%. In the late-1980s/early-1990s it was about Michael Milken and l-e-v-e-r-a-g-e!”
Jeff Saut of Raymond James. -
Üks research butiik räägib Netflix (NFLX)'i kohta järgmist:
"..Despite NFLX (18.81, +1.40%) being up over 11% in the past 5 trading sessions, we continue to note upside call buying. This morning investors purchased 2,500 August 20 (.34d) calls, getting long upside volatility while using the calls as leverage to gain exposure to a notable positive move in the stock. Recall prior to NFLX reporting earnings last Monday we noted almost exclusively call buyers and put sellers. .."
sB
