Börsipäev 11. august
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Cody Willard Rev Shark asemel:
Top Talk: Reversal Shakes the Bulls
A daily chart of the Nasdaq begs one primary question: After a three-month rally that lifted all kinds of boats in this market, was that a textbook blow-off top a couple weeks ago when we spiked up but were stopped in our tracks at 2200?
The markets certainly took on a change of character as earnings season wound down into that 2200 move. The action in July has long been defined by strong closes and almost no down days of any magnitude. In the last week and a half, the markets have been down almost every day -- and have been closing near their intraday lows. It's not the type of action that excites bulls and technical analysts.
There's no easy answer to whether it was a blow-off top. Even the bulls should have been pulling for a pullback and/or consolidation, and now that we got it, we're going to see a lot of bulls pull in their horns -- which is also what we should want to see. I tend to think this market downturn is going to feed on itself for at least a couple weeks or two, and this sustained downturn will work to shake out most of the weaker-handed longs and traders.
And as I noted in Columnist Conversation yesterday, there seems to be a consensus of bullishness into year-end (even as there's a consensus of non-bullishness in the near term). When that year-end bullishness fades and we start hearing about a supposed 2006 recession from all corners of the room, the opportunity to set up on the long side will likely be there.
In the meantime, I'm still keeping myself much more hedged and less aggressive to the long side than I had been in the spring. It's not as exciting as it might be, but we're not in this market for excitement now, are we?
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G. B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
CVTX +5% (positive Phase 3 results), NWS +3.2% (extends poison pill - WSJ; Deutsche upgrade), ABLE +7%, OPTC +17% (reports Q2), GSX +14% (reports Q2; also First Albany upgrade, tgt upped to $6.30), DYAX +5% (announces cancer lead), TOMO +4% (reports Q2), ACAM +3.3%, GLNG +3%... Small cap security stocks are moving: ISON +6.2% (announces purchase order), STKL +6% (hearing boutique firm out positive on the name), GEPT +6%... Under $3: SFLK +22% (reports results later today).
Gapping Down
TIVO -8% (DirecTV to stop marketing TiVo - Reuters), NVLS -2% (JP Morgan downgrade), INTC -1.5% (Goldman downgrade).... Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: NINE -30%, INCX -18%, LCBM -12%, URBN -2.4%. -
SNDA teeb ameerika mägesid :-)
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DELL tulemuste peale hetkel -2.60
QQQQ straddle sõpradele kah heaks uudiseks
