Börsipäev 18. august
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Rev Shark:
No Need to Rush to Buy
8/18/2005 8:44 AM EDT"Put your trust in God, but keep your powder dry."
-- Oliver Cromwell
Yesterday crude oil pulled back sharply and the market rallied. The question now is whether we should trust the bounce to continue. Was the move yesterday something more than an oversold dead-cat bounce? Should we be putting some "powder" to work?
If you look at the quality of the action yesterday the answer is no. Although the indices looked OK on the surface the action was weaker than it looked. Breadth was mediocre, small-caps lagged, volume was lame and given the extent of the pullback in oil the action lacked the sort of vigor that signals a desire to do some real buying.
There simply is no reason to have a high level of trust in this market right now. We have increased awareness of inflationary pressures, signs that housing may finally be cooling, problems in retail, and uninspiring news flow. The technical picture of the major indices is also quite troublesome. We have bounced off of support levels but the trend is obviously turning down, and relief bounces like we had yesterday and on Monday simply set up selling and shorting opportunities.
Also keep in mind that this is the slowest time of the year for the market. September has historically been the worst month for the market and August is usually not that hot either. Big institutions know this and they aren't going to be in a hurry to buy.
So we keep some powder dry, wait for opportunities and proceed with caution. There is no reason to rush into this market. There should be the regular supply of trading opportunities but time frames should be short and stops tight. The time to build longer-term positions is not here yet.
We have a soft open on the way. Overseas markets were mostly negative. Goldman Sachs raised its target on crude oil and that is supporting the price there. Weekly unemployement ticked up a little and that is a minor negative. Google should cause a stir today as traders contemplate what the firm plans to do with cash raised from a secondary offering.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Gary B. Smith:
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DNDN liisis endale tootmispinna :). Ainuke küsimus, et millal nad tootma hakkavad :).
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DNDN-lt nädala alguses aktsiate eeldatava emiteerimise uudis, nüüd see. Kokku pannes? Raha vist läheb vaja ikka selleks, et tootmist käivitada.
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DNDN-l vist tõesti plaan Provenge iga hinna eest ise turule tuua nagu ka Oliver mainis. Tore oleks, mulle hakkab see aktsia järjest enam meeldima.
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Viskasin korraks pilgu juhtkirjale, kus seisis, et RBK insiderid võeti vahele. Sellest tulenevalt oleks huvitav teada, et paljud Eestis enne RBK ülevõtmist aktsiaid ostsid või optsioone võtsid. Pea nädal enne ametlikku ülevõtmist teadsid mingid kohalikud Reeboki asjapulgadki "meil tulevad suured muutused, firma ostetakse ära ja Reebok ei jätka enam Reebokina" Isiklikult kuulsin sellest samal õhtul (ülevõtmise uudis oli hommikul) kui hea tuttav telefonis ütles niisama muu jutu juurde: "Näe, Reebok OSTETIGI ära" ..."Eee, mis sa ütlesid?" ... "Jah, me neist spordiketsidest nädalavahetusel kohvilauas rääkisime ja Reeboki ülevõtmisest"
Imelik on ainult see, et RBK aktsia hind ei tõusnud ennem eriti kui vahetult eelmine päev 42 dollari pealt 44 dollarini ... aga pidi olema jõudnud siis oi oi kui paljude inimesteni -
kas Reeboki insaiderite juhtum käesoleva aasta augustis, mida kajastas põhjalikult LHV juhtkiri
http://lhv.delfi.ee/news/index.cfm?id=1011773&show_body=1&show_comments=1
ei oleks pidanud olema "punaseks lipuks" LHV keisis osalenutele? -
Graafik, aga võibolla andis see hoopis hoogu juurde!
