Börsipäev 24. august
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Rev Shark:
Headwinds at Weak Time of Year Bode Ill
8/24/2005 8:34 AM EDT"Let me tell you something that we Israelis have against Moses. He took us 40 years through the desert in order to bring us to the one spot in the Middle East that has no oil!"
-- Golda Meir
The market has plenty of nagging concerns, but the one that is the more persistent and potentially dangerous is the price of crude oil. The bulls like to assure us that there really is a glut of supply and that this is just some sort of trading bubble that is sure to moderate. On the other hand, we hear from places like the NY Times that there is little new supply coming on line and demand to continues to grow in booming markets like China and India.
The contrarian thinking on oil is that high oil prices are really a function of strong economic demand, so oil and stocks are likely to move in tandem. There is probably some element of truth to that, but there are many other factors to consider and the correlation is definitely not that strong, especially at extreme price levels.
If oil were the only concern bothering the market it would be easier for the market to overcome it, but we also have seasonality, interest rate pressures, a moderating housing market and some nagging concerns about the economy and the consumer. The fact that these issues hit during the fading days of summer and as we enter the weakest period of the year make them more meaningful and more worrisome.
There are always good macro bearish arguments to be found but the weak technical picture means we have to pay much greater attention to them than we might in a market that is trending up and hitting new highs. We have feeble volume, battered support levels and little if any leadership. This is not an environment that inspires confidence and buyers are not inclined to throw their hard-earned capital at a market in this condition. Even the bargain hunters who like to buy weakness are going to hold off.
It is going to be a struggle but as I mentioned yesterday there are some interesting individual charts to be found. A lot of stocks have gone nowhere for quite a while and are building solid bases. It won't take much buying to move them up.
We have a weak open this morning as we wait for economic data. Overseas markets are struggling, oil is up and gold down.
Gary B. Smith:
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päeva lõpus näeb ehk ka vabalangust
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nafta hind on jälle rekordeid tegemas
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Turg täna justkui pikalt pressitud vedru lahti karanud. Volatiilsus turule tagasi saabumas?
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Concerns About Derivatives Speeding the Downturn
8/24/2005 3:19 PM EDT
The catalyst for this afternoon's dive appears to be a letter by the president of the New York Fed asking for a meeting on Sept. 15 of 14 major participants in the credit derivatives market. The issue is industry concern about "unconfirmed trades." The market seems to be thinking this may be another Long Term Capital-type event in the making, and the market is getting some panic selling on the news. -
Pro all võiks siis ka ära tuua, kui oluline on uudis NITE jaoks.
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Kas TIVO on väljas ?
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16:02 TIVO sees Q3 revs $41-43 vs $44.54 mln Reuters consensus
16:02 TIVO reports Q2 total net additions were 254K vs Briefing.com consensus of 250K
16:02 TIVO prelim $0.00 vs $-0.04 Reuters consensus; revs $40.7 mln vs $40.6 mln Reuters consensus -
Tänud, pole ise briefingu kasutaja. Aktsia oli üleval, aga uudiseid kuskil polnud. Nüüd alla tagasi tulnud.
