Börsipäev 30. august
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Rev Shark:
Cut Me, Mick: Traders Still Have a Round Left
8/30/2005 8:03 AM EDTGood morning. Most stocks move in the direction of the market, so I thought I'd start straight off this morning with some bigger-picture market thoughts.
It seems that the rally that began with vigor in late April is now on the ropes. Faced with surging oil prices, an unrelenting Fed seemingly poised to keep raising rates, and a flattening yield curve, institutional investors have shown that their love affair with stocks was only fleeting.
That said, in one corner we have yesterday's reversal in the face of what will likely be one of the costliest natural disasters in the U.S., and oil ticking above $70. However, volume was only slightly above Friday's levels on the NYSE and lighter on the Nasdaq, indicating institutions weren't eager buyers.
Then there's the corporate bond market, which is still providing unfettered access to cheap financing that's being used for stock buybacks and acquisitions. So I'd say the equity rally isn't down for the count just yet.
In the other corner we have the fact that in the past four weeks, stocks have gotten pretty well beaten up: The Nasdaq and SmallCap S&P 600 have each suffered four distribution days, marked by losses on heavier volume than the prior day, while the S&P 500 has endured three. It only takes three to five days of institutional selling within a three- to four-week period to knock a rally flat on its back. So again, for the time being I'd say the market's down but not quite out. But how many more rounds it can go, we'll have to wait and see.
Market leadership is still dominated by oil-related industry groups. Biotech, health care, and select areas of both retail and tech are also holding their own. But in the face of institutional selling, even the strongest groups aren't safe havens. As for how we're playing it, we've got our gloves up, taking a more defensive stance in recent weeks.
So that's my big-picture perspective. I look forward to sharing more specifics throughout the day. Later this morning we'll get August consumer confidence at 10 a.m. EDT The minutes of the Aug. 9 FOMC meeting will be released at 2 p.m. EDT.
Let's get ready to rumble.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
MDR +21% (announces agreement with the asbestos claimants), LTXX +7% (Citigroup upgrade), VIAC +6.4% (expands collaboration with Amgen), NINE +6.3% (wins open bid contract; guides), BIDU +4.3% (AP reports that co is gaining ground in China on Google), IMCL +3% (files supplemental BLA for Erbitux), JOYG +2.2% (beats by $0.06; guides above consensus), VRSN +1.9% (Susquehanna upgrade), LSTR +1.9% (broker upgrade), AAPL +1%.... Energy stocks keep moving on hurricane: BR +2.7%, FDG +2.5%, CHK +2.1% (positive WSJ article)... Alternative energy/fuel cell stocks are strong: SATC +19% (receives new fuel cell electronics orders), CPST +13% (Mad Money mention), BLDP +4%, ENER +2.3% (joint venture confirms contracts for Hybrid Electric Vehicle Programs)... Under $3: NVAX +11% (extends yesterday's 70% move).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: HTCH -21% (down in sympathy: KOMG -5.5%, STX -2.1%), DY -11%, FINL -10%, BLUD -10% (also CFO resigns), ATYT -8%, .... Other News: VSGN -52% (announces early close out of clinical trial), PCO -10% (related to merger with VLO), AMLN -4.2% (stock offering), BEIQ -2.4%, MNTA -2.4% (slips after announcing M-Enoxaparin filing), QLGC -2.3% (sells controller biz to Marvell, multiple downgrades), FRO -2.1%. -
Robert Marcin
Hurricane Katrina and the Markets
8/30/2005 10:29 AM EDT
I think the market underappreciated the damage by Katrina. I guess the video footage yesterday did not reveal the true nature of the damage, especially to the energy infrastrucutre.
With the heating season coming, I expect pressure on retail consumption due to high gasoline and heating costs. I have no problem trimming energy stocks into strength, but expect them to continue working higher.
Eventually, share prices should react negatively to lower profit expectations from tapering demand, rising costs and narrowing spreads. But when that happens is anyone's guess. -
Energiaspetsialist Christopher Edmonds kirjutab, et ilmselt ei osata veel asja tõsidust hinnata.
Christopher Edmonds
Katrina Impacts
8/30/2005 11:03 AM EDT
The impacts of Katrina are likely much more widespread than we currently appreciate. Whether it's the impact on oil and gas prices or on companies like Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE), the devastation is not well understood yet.
With an office in the Greater New Orleans area, the reports I am getting are much less cleansed than the reports coming from the national media. The death toll is likely to rise, the property damage impact will be in the Billions and the psychological toll is not even close to being understood. The flooding and other destruction in New Orleans is only beginning. Flooding is likely to get worse, not better over the next several days.
This is by no means an attempt to be sensationalistic, it is meant to be purely realistic. Over the next several days we will likely see images that will impact the nation in ways few domestic natural disasters have in the recent past.
Sometimes we focus so much on the economic impact of events that we forget to weigh the personal impacts. But those impacts may have more market impact than we think in the coming days.
