Börsipäev 1. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Cody Willard täna Rev Shark asemel:
In Face of Tragedy, Hope for a Recovery
Balancing emotions and trading is never easy. And when a disaster like Katrina hits, it's just flat-out impossible not to feel very strong emotions, and so it becomes extremely difficult to stay objective.
The devastation in the Southeast is just sickening, and hard to fathom. From the Northeast we see the heartbreaking images on TV and we read about the suffering. But as money managers, our minds immediately and constantly grapple with what the economic and investment implications of all this devastation will be. And we feel guilty for doing so.
But while we all can do what we can to help the victims logistically and financially in the near term, going on with our jobs, working for our investors, creating more value and economic productivity -- these are the things that will help in the long run. It's economic productivity that has created the wealth and health that the majority of Americans have access to every day. In other words, the most important thing we can do right now is to keep on keeping on.
Here's how the economic situation in the Southeast breaks down.
Obviously, oil and energy prices will be affected. With supply constraints clearly having an effect in the near term, we've got a major near-term headwind for this economy. If you believe, as I do, that there is a speculative premium to the price of oil and gasoline in the marketplace, there's hope that any short-term price increases could quickly wane, even if supply doesn't come back quickly.
But even if there is a big speculative premium in the price of oil and gas, that doesn't mean it'll subside any time soon, even if supply comes back tomorrow; this can last for a very long time. In the meantime, high oil and energy prices are going to hurt the economy and corporate America earnings.
We're getting lots of reports from economists now who are explaining that the rebuilding of New Orleans will be a net positive for GDP. Certainly, as I'd noted yesterday> there will be a whole lot of money -- private and government, charitable and capitalistic -- that will flow into that region. But I think that one of the reasons that the developed world has been able to prosper economically with such consistency has been the lack of wars on developed countries' lands and the destruction of property that comes with wars.
Destruction is not a net positive for the overall economy, even if it will revive what has been a pocket of stagnation in a mostly otherwise robust economy that has helped many cities outside of the Southeast go through wondrous renaissances.
Perhaps this disaster will prompt the Fed to pause rate hikes or even cut. I don't foresee any cuts on the horizon, but I had thought the Fed should and would pause even before the most recent hike. Will a pause from the Fed make much of difference? It sure won't hurt, but it's tough to be very excited about the status quo given the headwinds of energy.
I'm sure not running for the hills or turning into some big bear. But this is not exactly a set-up that makes me want to be levered up on Nasdaq stocks as I was in spring.
My thoughts go out to all those affected by Katrina.
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G. B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
CHIR +19% (NVS makes bid to acquire shares it does not already own), SE +18% (Seven Eleven Japan to acquire 7-Eleven), CEPH +5% (enters co-promotion agreement), BSM +7.6% (extends yesterday's 52% move), GERN +8.8% (announces publication of studies), SBUX +2.6% (Aug comps; Lehman upgrade)... Energy stocks strong again on rising prices and broker upgrades: SUN +3.9%, VLO +3.3%, COP +2.8%, CHK +2.5%, FRO +2.3%, TOT +2.3%... Hurricane plays are strong again: CBI +10%, IPII +5.8%, HOM +5.2%, GLBL +3.5%, ABIX +3.2%... Alternative energy stocks continue momentum: BLDP +5%, BCON +4.6%, QTWW +4%, FCEL +3.6%, PLUG +2.7%, CPST +2.1%... Under $3: ALTH +24% (announces publication of positive Exaproxyn study results).
Gapping Down
Retailers gapping down on disappointing August same store sales/guidance: BEBE -11%, PSUN -5.5%... Other News: NCS -8.5% (reports Q3), CNR -7.4%, COCO -4.6% (reports in line, guides Q1, FY06 below consensus), MYOG -3.3% (profit taking after recent huge move), SNDK -2.5% (UBS downgrade), WBSN -1.9% (president resigns). -
Kas keegi teab, mis on juhtunud DFIB -ga. Hetkel nagu Traderis kauplemist ei toimu?
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Asi selles, et DFIB ja QUIN ühinevad ja nad loodavad homseks diili valmis saada. Vaata marketwatch-ist lisa.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&dateid=38595.6491399884-841040153&
