Börsipäev 9. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Rev Shark:
Will Good News Scare Traders?
9/9/2005 9:01 AM EDT"The poker player learns that sometimes both science and common sense are wrong; that the bumblebee can fly; that, perhaps, one should never trust an expert; that there are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of by those with an academic bent."
-- David Mamet
The market has done an excellent job of making uncomfortable those traders who rely on common sense and logic. Despite a long list of negatives, the market continues to act well. If economic fallout from the hurricane, high oil prices, inflationary and interest rate pressures, a mediocre economy and seasonality can't drive this market down, what will?
Given the perverse nature of the market, the likelihood is that we will see weakness when we start seeing good news. That sounds like a rather flippant observation but it is consistent with the psychology of the market. Market participants bought bad news events like Hurricane Katrina and the bombings in London in part because they felt that the market had adequately compensated for the fallout. Many traders saw an opportunity to take advantage of a selloff and as they rushed in, others became afraid they would be left out and also jumped in.
Given this thinking there is a high likelihood that good news will cause this process to work in reverse. Traders will look to take profits into strength and when the market stalls and doesn't follow through, other folks will follow along and start locking in profits.
The market would be a whole lot easer if bad news meant the market downtrended and good news always resulted in an uptrend, but if it was that simple we'd all be sitting on our yachts in the Mediterranean sipping a glass of Merlot.
This morning we have good news from Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) and OK news from Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), and we are seeing a little early strength. Is this the sort of good news that will induce traders to take profits? We had a few cracks in the market yesterday, as breadth lagged and only the semiconductors showed much life. If the market doesn't gain traction on the semiconductor news, will profit-taking pick up?
I'm leaning that way but continue to be more neutral than bearish about the market. Until there is clear technical damage -- most notably a breach of the uptrend since the hurricane hit -- the bulls have the advantage.
The chip news is helping us out here in the early going but oil is also up. Once again I'll be watching breadth very closely to see if the indices are reflective of the broader market. Overseas markets were perky overnight but the dollar is weak. It should be another tricky day of trading.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
PSRC +77% (being acquired), GCOM +17% (earnings), BVF +15% (surprise FDA approval), OMCL +15% (upgrade to Strong Buy), BLDP +14% (supply agreement), PTIE +10% (positive trial results), NKTR +9.7% (FDA ruling on Inhaled Insulin), GEPT +9.2% (contract award), SIGM +4.9% (MSFT news), SGR +3.4% (Army Corps of Engineers contract, CNBC appearance), SEPR +2.3% (upgrade), TXN +1.5% (mid-qtr update), DELL +0.8% (Amtech upgrade).
Gapping Down
CAFE -28% (being delisted), MATK -9.3% (disappointing guidance), QTWW -6.6% (disappointing revs), VMSI -6.5% (product delay), YELL -5.8% (guidance), BIIB -1% (multiple downgrades following restructuring news; ELN falls 3% in sympathy), RMBS -1.5% (profit-taking following yesterday's rumor-driven rally), PPX -0.8% (prices offering). -
INTC -3%, TXN ka kogu võidu käest andnud, kuid turg suudab veel nullis püsida. Huvitav.
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varsti on hea aeg intelit osta!
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sentimentrader.com:
"Over the past two years (9 quarters), whenever [Intel] released their guidance, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closed below where it opened the next day 8 of 9 times, for an average of -0.9%. Three days later, the NDX was higher than where it was before the guidance only one time, and its average return was -1.1%. Even twenty days later, the NDX showed a negative return and was positive less than half the time -- this during a period when the index rallied more than 20%. So while there may be some opening-market optimism as a consequence of these stocks' guidance, keep in mind the history of Intel's ability to sustain positive market moves after sending out its updates." -
Turu tugevuse ja Inteli nõrkuse osas oli olukord tänasega sarnane ka 20. juulil, mil Intel just tulemused oli avaldanud. Nasdaq lõpetas päeva 0,7% plussis, samas kui Intel majandustulemuste tõttu õhtuks 4,4% jagu punasesse vajus.
Hetkel siis Intel -3,26% ja Nasdaq +0,2%. -
SNRR õigustab talle pandud lootusi, on ilusast liikvele läinud vaatamata reede õhtule.
Vahest veab kah nendel LHV ennustus analüütikutel ja nendel kes neid usuvad, seal hulgas ka minul.
