Börsipäev 20. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Rev Shark:
On a Fed Day, Don't Expect Logic From Traders
9/20/2005 9:02 AM EDT
"A Scout is never taken by surprise; he knows exactly what to do when anything unexpected happens."-- Robert Baden-Powell, founder of the Boy Scouts
We have two pending events that have the capacity to deliver unexpected surprises. The first is the FOMC interest rate decision today at 2:15 p.m. EDT and the second is the repercussions from Hurricane Rita as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico
The key to trading the market as these events occur is to be open to the possibility that the reaction may not be what is generally expected. It is very easy to jump to such conclusions that if the Fed pauses the market goes up, or if Hurricane Rita says on course oil goes up and the market falls.
Expectations of a logical response by the market are often a trap. In fact, the more logical things seem the more likely the market is to do the opposite. The great dilemma of the stock market is the more that market participants expect something to occur, the quicker they are to price it in. When the event does occur, it is already fully discounted by the market and the reaction is the opposite of what you'd expect.
Hurricane Rita is probably a little easier to game than the FOMC, because the market obviously started pricing in the fallout of that yesterday. With Hurricane Katrina still in the headlines, the market was probably more sensitive to the negative possibilities than it might otherwise be. Hurricanes are fickle and their path and the damage they do changes quickly. The path has already shifted a bit south and oil prices are falling on that news.
The likelihood is that the market is inclined to compensate for Hurricane Rita too much and too quickly. Since Katrina was worse than the market expected in terms of damage it is likely to do the opposite this time and be too pessimistic. If the market sells off further prior to the hurricane hitting, watch for a solid rebound once the event is over.
The FOMC is even trickier to game than the weather. There are two considerations, the actual interest rate decision and the accompanying policy statement. The consensus opinion is that the FOMC will stay focused on inflation and raise rates another 25 basis points. There is a contingent that believes the FOMC will pause this month -- they will be disappointed with a hike and that may cause some market pressure.
The problem with a pause in the rate hike campaign is that it underscores the problems we have in the economy. If the economy were running smoothly the FOMC wouldn't even be thinking of a pause, but obviously we have some issues and the Fed's willingness to admit that is not a positive.
But it is the policy statement that most likely holds the key to the market reaction. Whether the FOMC raises rates or not, a few words in the policy statement can determine the course of the market. If the FOMC makes it clear that a pause is just a temporary measure and that hikes are very likely to continue, that undermines the benefit to the market. If the FOMC raises but makes it clear that it is almost finished, there is likely to be a favorable response.
We will hash this out further as the day progresses but the key here is to be prepared not only for the unexpected but also for a market response that seems illogical.
In the early going we have a positive start as oil falls and Asian markets hit new multiyear highs. Housing starts were a bit soft but the market looks ready to reverse some of yesterday's losses.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
STEM +22% (study demonstrates restored motor function in mice; up in sympathy: ASTM +7.3%, VIAC +4.4%, GERN +2%), VC +26% (financier weighs Visteon's assets for parts venture - WSJ), CC +11% (beats by $0.04, ups FY06 guidance), FDS +9.2% (reports AugQ; guides revs higher), PRGS +6.4% (reports AugQ), FTEK +5.2% (announces multiple orders), ULGX +4.1% (Miller Johnson upgrade), SONS +4% (teams with AOL for VoIP; selected by Earthlink for VoIP network), GFIG +3.8% (extends yesterday's 11% move), HMY +3.5% (momentum), RFMD +2.8% (positive Legg Mason note), PAY +2.5% (prices offering), LSI +2.4%, AMD +2.3% (Sun Micro introduces new servers), QCOM +1.9% (Goldman upgrade), XRX +1.7% (hearing added to Merrill Focus List)... Under $3: CNXT +15% (Mad MOney mention), PESI +4.4%.
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disapointing guidance: TPX -22% (also multiple downgrades; down in sympathy: SCSS -5%), SWFT -7.4%, EL -7.4% (also JP Morgan and OpCo downgrades), UTEK -6%, BC -6%... Other News: BDCO -7% (profit taking after 26% move yesterday), NAVR -6% (to change its accounting for an investment in a music start-up), CYBX -5% (stock offering), HOKU -5% (profit taking after 30% move yesterday), OVTI -4% (Baird believes co has lost Motorola as a customer), PQUE -3.3% (profit taking after 10% move yesterday), INT -2.8% (prices offering), CHK -1.5% (Citigroup removes CHK from Focus List), AZN -1.4%.... Under $3: AXYX -15% (Phase 3 data), FLYI -9%, GNTA - 4% (profit taking after 45% move yesterday). -
Üks broker NFLX teemal:
This week’s trading in NFLX (23.50, +0.99%) implies that investors may be increasingly cautious on the stock in the next several months. On Monday, opening investors sold December 20 (.75d) calls and December 22.5 (.62d) calls, 500 times each. Today, participants bought November 20 (.18d) puts and January 15 (.10d) puts, 1,200 times each in addition to March 15 (.10d) puts. Today’s low delta put buyers may be buying insurance against a significant downside move and / or they may be buying stock in the market. Monday’s call sellers however do appear bearish due to the deeper deltas of the options.
sB -
Kui suur osa turust ootas, et FED tõstab intresse 25 bp ja ehk muudab edasiste tõstmiste suhtes mõtteid veidi leebemaks, siis FED tõstis 25 bp, kuid tõstmine jätkub ilmselt plaanipäraselt.
Sellest ka praegune allamüük (taas oli esimene kiire liikumine peale uudist "vales suunas"). -
Kas ka dollar tugevnes "valesti"? Kuidas see üldse Dollarile mõjub?
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Dollar tugevnemas, võimalus järgmisteks intressimäära tõstmisteks jäi avatuks.
