Börsipäev 26. sept

Nafta protsendi jagu all, USA futuurid pool prossa plussis. Mitte just kõige halvem algus nädalale.

26.09.2005 11:43

Päris ilus pluss jah, Rita tegi oodatust vähem laastamistööd nädalavahetusel. Kuid arvestada tuleb ka seda, et neljapäev-reede olid pigem positiivse fooniga päevad, seega ega turg väga Ritat kartnudki. Seega võib see olla ka üks paljudest esmaspäevastest gapidest üles, mis ära müüakse.

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

26.09.2005 12:08

velvo

Ootusi tõesti alla ei tambitud, mistõttu optimismipuhang kohe ilmselt üldiseks tõusuks ei pöördu, aga varsti peaks siiski selgeks saama, et võimalus osta aktsiaid juuni alguse hinnaga on aastalõpuhindasid arvestades siiski soodne ost.

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

26.09.2005 12:10

henryhenry

Kui kõik ennustavad jõnksu üles ja siis alla käikku.
Siis öelge mulle üks põhjus miks see peaks sedasi minema?

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

26.09.2005 13:28

stocker

Turukogemus.

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

26.09.2005 15:57

Graafik

NIKKEI close(+1.77%) ja DAX hetkeseis(1.79%) annavad põhjust ennustada kõva rallit, muidugi eeldusel et naftahinnad püsivad ka miinuses(hetkel nov fut. -0.66%).

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

26.09.2005 16:07

AloV

Rev Shark:

How Much Was Katrina Anticipated?
9/26/2005 8:55 AM EDT

"It takes a real storm in the average person's life to make him realize how much worrying he has done over the squalls."

-- Bruce Barton

Hurricane Rita was more than a squall, but it turned out to be far less destructive than many had anticipated early in the week. Many feared a repeat of Hurricane Katrina but failed to recognize the peculiar circumstances of New Orleans that made the hurricane so destructive.

The market apparently got it right on Thursday and Friday, and wasn't overly negative. Crude oil traded down in a special trading session on Sunday but seems to have stabilized so far this morning. The question now is whether the market has already priced in the relatively mild damage from Hurricane Rita. We still don't know how long some of the refineries and drilling platforms will be shut down but apparently things are in fairly good shape.

Early last week it looked like the market was going to sell off hard as we had people on CNBC comparing Hurricane Rita to Pearl Harbor and talking about how oil refineries could be crippled for months. It looked like there was a very good chance the market was going to be overly negative and set up for a big bounce this week when things didn't turn out that bad. Apparently a lot of folks thought that scenario was likely and began to buy on Thursday and Friday.

So now we have to look at the flip side. Did the market already price in a mild hurricane and set itself up for a sell the news reaction today? How much of the good news (or lack of bad news) about Rita is already priced in?

Keep in mind that this market is grappling with issues other than Hurricane Rita, and there's still a lot for the bears to feel good about: oil prices, inflation, an uncooperative Fed, budget deficits, a mediocre economy and seasonality, to name a few.

We also have substantial technical issues in the charts of the indices and it is going to take some work to repair the damage. The Nasdaq needs to reclaim the 2150 level, and the S&P 500 the 1230 area. Until the market shows an inclination to hold those levels the action today can not be construed as anything other than a relief bounce.

The market has certainly done a nice job of keeping investors unsettled lately and we definitely can't be overly trusting about how much the market may recover on the Hurricane Rita news. As I'm sure you recall, the market rallied straight up following the London bombings and Hurricane Katrina, which were definitely negative surprises. In keeping with its contrary nature it wouldn't be a big surprise if the market ended up struggling following a positive surprise.

We have a sold open on the way but not as positive as the action was overseas. Gold is down and oil is falling again.

Gary B. Smith: