Börsipäev 30. september
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Rev Shark:
Still Leery of the Tape
9/30/2005 8:47 AM EDT"Speculation is only a word covering the making of money out of the manipulation of prices, instead of supplying goods and services."
-- Henry Ford
The end of the quarter always brings an increase in speculative action. There is a very strong inclination for bulls to want to hold the market up and preserve whatever gains they may have earned. The bears understand this and try to anticipate the reversal of this artificial action.
As a result of the bears' anticipation and because the bulls don't want to be too blatant with their manipulation, window-dressing often ends up occurring the day before the actual end of the quarter. Yesterday seemed to be a particularly good example of that phenomenon. It is very likely that today the bears will be selling into strength and hoping to profit from an unwinding of mark-ups next week.
Several readers have pointed out that I'm being much more anticipatory than usual. Typically I will defer to the market and react as things change rather than try to predict. There are a couple things at work that are influencing me at this point, the most important of which are the technical patterns of the major indices, the Nasdaq in particular.
The Nasdaq hit a high at the beginning of August and has been downtrending since. We had a move up in early September that failed well short of the August high and then we traded down again and took out the August lows. So we have lower highs and lower lows and then one day of strength yesterday as the quarter winds down. Even if it wasn't the end of the quarter, that move yesterday would be very difficult to trust technically.
Yes, it come on increased volume and breadth but the downtrend from August is still firmly intact and the Nasdaq is still below the 50-day simple moving average.
I see no good reason to expect the pop yesterday to continue. If we challenge the 2155 area and can manage a close over that level, I'll have to reconsider whether this move is for real.
In addition to the technical conditions, the macro picture is littered with major worries. High energy prices, inflation, cooling housing, faltering consumer sentiment and below-expectation personal income and spending numbers reflect some very basic weaknesses in the economy.
We'll see how things shake out today. I'd love to be a prancing, snorting, dirt pawing bull but the bovine bunch still has plenty of work to do before I'll join their ranks.
We have some slight weakness to start the day. Oil is down, which is helping, and good news from Micron (MU:NYSE) is boosting tech. But gold is up again and overseas markets were mixed.
Position: No positions in stock mentioned
Gary B. Smith:
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kas NFLX ostetakse? turul käivat kõlakad
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uuendasime ka Forest Labsi (FRX) LHV Pro all.
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täna on tugevad jälle linnugripi mängud, üks neist käis hommikul Briefingust ka läbi:
SVA Sinovac Biotech: Play on $4 bln avian flu bill (4.38 +0.08)
Yesterday, the U.S. Senate approved $4 bln to fight bird flu by stocking up on anti-viral drugs and increasing global surveillance of the disease. Watch for potential interest on SVA, which received Anflu Flu Vaccine Production License from Chinese FDA in July. SVA is waiting for manufacturing plant approval to begin avian flu production. -
Netflix (NFLX) jätkab tõusu, kuna a) analüütikud on jätkuvalt positiivsemaks muutumas. Näiteks täna tõstis üks suur maja oma hinnasihi $32 peale, mis on hetkel vist kõrgeim hinnasiht. b) Firma tõstis eile veidi oma prognoose. c) Short squeeze käib vist ikka veel.
Tegemist on LHV Pro soovitusega.
sB
