Börsipäev 27. oktoober
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Rev Shark:
A Contained Pullback Not a Bad Thing
10/27/2005 9:13 AM EDT"All rising to great place is by a winding stair."
-- Sir Francis Bacon
After a sharp rally right to resistance levels, the major indices have spent the past two days pulling back and consolidating gains. The Nasdaq hit a wall right at its 50-day simple moving average, 2073, and the S&P 500 ran into problems at its 200-day simple moving average, which is around 1200.
Frankly, we shouldn't expect or even want the market to cut through that overhead resistance easily. We had a good bounce and we need the short-term, nervous bulls to move out and stock to move into the hands of stronger holders. A few days of flat or weak action while that transition takes place shouldn't worry us too much.
The key here is that the market not pull back too far. We need enough confident bulls out there who are willing to buy a pullback at this stage to keep the market from going too low. If the market starts to pull back too far, even the folks who are bullish, like me, are likely to do some selling simply because of prudent money management.
There is a fine line between allowing the market to consolidate and being stubborn in the face of deterioration. The way to really hurt your investing results is to stick to your view of what is going on in the market, even if the market fails to cooperate. Your logic may be impeccable and your insight superb, but if the market doesn't act right you need to make sure you stay focused on protecting capital.
The pullback the last couple of days is not severe enough to kill the recent rally but if we continue to pull back on poor breadth and increased volume, it will be worrisome even if we still stay above recent support levels.
One thing that makes me optimistic is that the degree of skepticism and negativity about this market and the economy as a whole continues to be high. A lot of folks who are bearish have raised some cash already and that gives us some support.
We have our work cut out for us. Keep those losses contained but don't get sucked into the negative sentiment that is out there if the market continues to hold here.
We have a slightly negative start to the day as we digest a flurry of earnings reports.
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Täna õhtul drugstore.com (DSCM) tulemused. Hommikul teatas Amazon, et lõpetab drugstore käest kauba ostmise, kuna nende tervishoiutoodete äri on kasvanud suureks ning see annab Amazonile võimaluse kaubelda paremaid hindu otse tootjatelt.
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Eelmisest korrast juuli lõpus meenub, et DSCM tegi viimase tunni-poole jooksul sellise kena 30-40 sendise tõusu, mis muidugi ei anna alust nüüd eiteamida loota.
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