Börsipäev 16. november
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Rev Shark:
Too Early to Know, so Beware
11/16/2005 8:44 AM EST
"There comes a pause, for human strength will not endure to dance without cessation; and everyone must reach the point at length of absolute prostration."-- Lewis Carroll
The bulls have been disco-ing faster and higher since mid-October but as we approached the highs we hit back this summer with nary a pause it was time to take a little rest. The question now is whether this is just a brief pause that refreshes and allows the party to continue, or the beginning of absolute prostration and the meltdown the bears assure us is inevitable.
It is too early to answer that question. The profit-taking yesterday did nothing to change the technical picture, and it was expected and even welcomed by many bulls. What we have to watch for is whether it is going to scare more folks into locking in profits and start a waterfall pullback that breaches key support levels. When profits start to disappear, many traders will lock in their gains and head for the sidelines.
The key here is the dip buyers. Will the folks who missed out on this rally be willing to step up and buy weakness? Buying a pullback always sounds like a great idea when the market is going up but many have second thoughts when real weakness occurs. It is natural to worry that the pullback that you hoped for will turn into something worse.
It is very important to watch market internals at this point. What groups are showing relative strength, how small-caps are acting, breadth, high-beta stocks demand, volume, and so on. If the internal action deteriorates then we will know that we may be in for a more severe correction.
At this point there is no reason to panic. The trend is still solidly up, the indices are in good shape technically, and seasonality continues to favor the bulls. That doesn't mean we shouldn't increase our caution levels but don't be too overly anticipatory in expectation of the end of this party.
CPI data are out and not generating much of a market reaction so far. Business inventories were a bit higher than expected, which is troublesome but the market doesn't seem very concerned at the moment.
We have a flat start on tap. Overseas markets were mixed, oil is down again and gold is perking up. Keep on eye on those gold stocks -- they are building some interesting charts.
Gary B. Smith:
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Banc of America downgrades Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME 386.90) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, tgt $364
Banc of America cuts their tgt on AMD to $21 from $23 and cuts their CY06 EPS est. During AMD's analyst day, mgmt suggested that 2006 R&D expenses for AMD (ex-Spansion) would grow Y/Y as a percent of sales and on an absolute basis (firm had expected strong rev growth to allow the co to experience some leverage on this line). Also , firm says CY06 guidance for 51-57% gross margins ex-Spansion was generally in-line with firm's est of 53%, but they think it was below consensus expectations of 55-60%. Firm believes this announcement will likely disappoint some investors. On the positive side, AMD guided to a lower tax rate (10-15% vs 14% in firm's model), as well as significantly lower than modeled options expense.
Legg Mason raises their Advanced Micro (AMD 25.50) tgt to $30 from $26 following co's analyst day, as they are more comfortable with their rough AMD EPS approximation, ex-Spansion
Banc of America raises their Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 62.83) tgt to $69 from $65, as they believe the acquisition of GDT helps boost JNJ's top line growth from a 2005-2009 CAGR of 6.5% to 9.0%
CIBC on võtnud käsile pooljuhtide sektori:
CIBC initiates Applied Materials (AMAT 17.74) with a Sector Perform and $15 tgt, as the co is adapting quickly to slower growth by offsetting more muted fundamentals with continuous cost cutting and share buybacks, driving EPS leverage
CIBC initiates KLA-Tencor (KLAC 50.70) with a Sector Perform and $45 tgt, as they believe its product pipeline is an impressive A.S.P. arsenal, yet the co is not the best hedge in a downturn and the group's forward P/E vs INTC/S&P is likely peaking at a 40% premium
CIBC initiates Lam Research (LRCX 37.83) with a Sector Perform and $35 tgt, as the co's strategic initiative in single-wafer clean tools brings into question the sustainability of near-perfect margins
CIBC initiates Teradyne (TER 14.68) with a Sector Perform and $16 tgt, as the co's restructuring story in 2006 bucks the group trend of slowing expansion in industry capex intensity
CIBC initiates Novellus Systems (NVLS 23.12) with an Underperform and $18 tgt, as they believe the co needs fixes to its cost structure to catch up to peersTäna võivad taaskord huvi pakkuda majaehitajad peale DR Hortoni (DHI, sama sektori esindajad TOL, LEN BZH, PHM, KBH) tulemusi ja CPI data teatavakstegemist:
Co reports Q4 EPS of $1.77 per share vs $1.63 consensus; revs rose 45.1% yr/yr to $5.02 bln vs $4.7 bln consensus. Co sees FY06 EPS of $5.22-5.32 vs $5.24 consensus. Co reaffirms Q1 EPS guidance of $0.90-0.95 vs $0.99 consensus. Aktsia eelturul 3.5% plussis, andes natuke järele CPI andmetele.
Oktoobri CPI statistika järgmine:
Core CPI +0.2% vs +0.2% consensus
Core CPI +0.2% vs +0.2% consensusNaftahind on langenud 4 kuu madalaimale tasemele vaatamata OPECi ülemaailmse nõudluseprognoosi tõstmisele.
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Üsna huvitav uudis Nokia firmaostude osas, nimelt teatati mobiilides e-maile lugeda võimaldava tarkvara tootja Intellisync (SYNC) ostmisest 430 miljoni dollari eest. Negatiivne uudis Blackberry tootjale (RIMM), keda on peetud Nokia ülevõtusihtmäegiks.
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http://banaaniahv.blogspot.com/2005/11/groballistiliselt-gigametriaalne.html
