Börsipäev 12.detsember
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Naftafutuurid on 50 senti reedesest sulgemishinnast kõgemal - 59.90(nymex, jaanuar)
Kuld lõi Aasia sessioonil uue rekordi 540USD
Aasias läks dollar teiste valuutade vastu kukkuma, kui Hiina majandusnõunik avaldas arvamust, et dollaris nomineeritud varad kujutavad riski Aasia ja Hiina jaoks
Nikkei 225 tõusis paranenud tarbijasentimendi toel 2.2%
Euroopa turud on valdavalt rohelised ja USA indeksifutuurid soliidses plussis
Selle nädala kalender:
Homme oodatakse FOMC koosolekult veel ühte intressitõstet, pressiteade tuleb 14:15,
aga enne seda hommikul kl 8:30 USA novembri jaemüüginumbrid,
kolmapäeval kell 8:30 USA oktoobri väliskaubandusbilanss,
neljapäeval kell 8:30 USA novembri tarbijahinnaindeks ja kell 12 Philadelphia piirkonna detsembri majandusseis
Suuremate firmade majandustulemused:
teisipäev BBY
neljapäev BSC, GS ,ADBE, ORCL -
Paistab, et Graafik-u positiivsus reedel läheb täppi. USA toredas roheluses. :)
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Rev Shark:
Benchmark-Chasing Should Make for Good Trading
12/12/2005 9:06 AM EST"Man is a gaming animal. He must always be trying to get the better in something or other."
-- Charles Lamb
As we wind down to the last few weeks of 2005, those who make a living managing money for others become increasingly focused on how their performance stacks up against their benchmark indices. Investors who manage their own money often fail to understand money managers' intense focus on benchmarks.
Performance relative to a benchmark is the sole measure of success for many of them. Performance determines whether your clients stick with you, how much new business you might attract, and compensation and performance bonuses. If you can best that benchmark, life is going to be a lot easier in the year ahead.
In the waning days of the year this intense focus can produce some very strong momentum. If a money manager is lagging and needs to outperform by a couple percent in the final few weeks, he is most likely going to try to do so by making aggressive buys. If he is going to trail his benchmark anyway, the risk of making a bad trade isn't that important. If you are 5% behind rather than 2% behind, it doesn't much matter. But if you are 2% ahead rather than 1% behind, then that can be huge.
This need for performance is a big part of what drives the traditional seasonality in December. Those who are well ahead can sit back and take it easy, but that group is in the minority. Most managers are lagging or just ahead by a small amount and need to be extra competitive in the final few weeks. That means they are going to making buys rather than raising cash and being passive.
Keep the "benchmark performance" phenomenon firmly in mind as you contemplate this market. Money managers are going to look at things a bit different, and extended markets and overbought conditions aren't that important when you are trying to beat out your competition.
The pullback last week set up the indices very nicely for a possible attempt at new highs. Although the selling was pretty mild overall it did result in some healthy consolidation and helped work off the overbought conditions to some extent. If the bulls can hold above last weeks lows I suspect buying will quickly build and push us toward new highs.
Early action is positive but as always we need to be wary of Monday morning euphoria. Oil has reversed upward after a weak start on news that OPEC was maintaining production quotas. Gold has blasted higher once again and is at its highest price since January 1981. Overseas markets are generally higher with Asia continuing its positive momentum.
It should be a good week for trading, so buckle on that trading helmet and get ready to go to work.
Gary B. Smith:
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Prudential downgrades Wild Oats Markets (OATS 12.70) to Neutral from Overweight on valuation
Piper Jaffray downgrades aQuantive (AQNT 27.15) to Mkt Perform from Outperform on valuation, saying AQNT shares are trading at approximately a 60% premium to shares of ValueClick (VCLK) and Digitas (DTAS)
Jefferies downgrades Salesforce.com (CRM 35.50) to Hold from Buy and raises their tgt to $33 from $28, based on valuation and their concerns about a more complex strategy and variability in the operating model
CSFB raises their Google (GOOG 409.20) tgt to $475 from $400 as they believe GOOG's leading market share in the growing online advertising industry, its ability to improve search monetization rates, and additional revenue potential through new products, like Local, Gmail, and Froogle, will allow the company to continue outgrowing the industry for the foreseeable future justifying this premium
CSFB raises their Apple (AAPL 74.33) tgt to $82 from $56 and raises their Q1 ests, as they believe iPod shipments are trending above their initial expectations for fiscal 1Q06, and have raised raised their unit estimate to 11 mln from 9.45 mln
Morgan Stanley upgrades United Technology Group (UTX 55.42) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $62 tgt as they believe the co is not getting the recognition it deserves as a beneficiary of the aerospace upcycle, for its outlook for rising ROE, track record for superior execution relative to both aerospace and multi industry peers and disciplined use of cash
