Börsipäev 13.detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
Euroopa ja aasia aktsiaturud siledad.
Kulla ja energiafutuurid kerges languses.
eur/usd 1.192 - dollar on õrnalt tugevnenud pärast eilset kukkumist
Turud ootavad novembri jaemüüginumbreid (kl. 8:30 NYC aeg). Midagi head ei oodata( cons. retail sales ex-autos 0%), sellepärast on ka usa indeksifutuurid kerges miinuses.
***
SIRI sai öösel veel ühe downgrade (SELL BofA-lt, tgt 5.50) -
PG tõstis kasumiprognoosi +0.59
CD langetas kasumiprognoosi -0.78
SIRI downgrade -0.17
retail ex autos -0.3%, SP futuurid -1 -
BofA downgrades Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 7.46) to Sell from Neutral with $5.50 tgt based on valuation
UBS initiates Wal-Mart (WMT 48.68) with a Neutral and $53 tgt, as they believe the co is so large and efficient that the physical numbers behind growth targets may become hard to deliver
Deutsche Bank downgrades Canadian National Railways (CNI 79.42) to Hold from Buy on valuation
UBS initiates Costco (COST 48.68) with a Buy and $59 tgt, as they cite the co's business model and believe they could almost double their size and could grow its U.S. square footage by 6-7% per year for a decade to come
UBS initiates Target (TGT 54.12) with a Buy and $70 tgt, as they believe the co's increased focus on its consumable program will be a key driver behind increasing shopper frequency, creating greater potential for EPS upside surprise
Citigroup downgrades Nucor (NUE 67.04) to Hold from Buy
Citigroup downgrades U.S. Steel (X 47.87)to Hold from Buy
UBS in Canada upgrades Glamis Gold (GLG 24.28) to Buy from Neutral and raises their tgt to $30 from $27, as they expect strong earnings momentum starting with 4Q05 as Marigold recovers and Marlin ramps up
Citigroup is revising estimates for IBM this morning to reflect the negative impact of currency and bookings declines in certain portions of the services business. Recent checks also suggest a potential inventory correction in microprocessors for Xbox 360 game consoles early next year, and lower than expected Cell processor production volume at IBM as Sony attempts to fulfill most of its production needs internally.... While 4Q05, FY06 and FY07 revenue is likely to be materially below the current consensus, the firm's modeling suggests that IBM can still achieve consensus EPS estimates for 4Q05 and FY06. Firm sees near-term downside to $80, but still expects a move into the high-$90's within one year. Price target inched down to $98 from $100
Retail Sales ex-auto -0.3% vs 0.0% consensus
Retail Sales +0.3% vs +0.4% consensus
-
Rev Shark:
Gaming the Fed
12/13/2005 9:13 AM EST"Good is not good, when better is expected."
-- Thomas FullerThe action in the market today will be primarily a function of expectations about what the Federal Open Market Committee will say in the policy statement that accompanies its interest rate decision at 2:15 p.m. EST. The market has deemed a quarter-point hike to be a sure thing but there is quite a bit of uncertainty whether Alan Greenspan and his posse will indicate that we are close to the end of the interest rate hike campaign.
The big question for us to contemplate is what the market is expecting the FOMC to do and whether it has already priced that action into the market. There is a healthy contingent of folks who believe the market has already priced in a more dovish Fed and that we are set up for a "sell the news" reaction when the Fed policy statement is released.
I'm not so sure the market is that sanguine about a kinder and gentler FOMC -- the Fed has not clearly signaled that it is ready to back off. Many economists and market pundits believe the timing is right for the Fed to telegraph what it will do, but there is still a high level of uncertainty and the market has not clearly embraced the idea.
One additional fact that complicates matters a bit is the upcoming retirement of Chairman Greenspan. Will the Fed want to make a change before he departs or will it think it will be better to wait until the new Fed head is in place before changing? Or maybe it doesn't matter at all who is in charge.
In any event if you look at the major indices over the past couple of weeks they have been close to flat. If there are high expectations that the Fed is going to be market friendly, the market hasn't been reflecting that recently. Some would say that we priced in a friendly Fed during November but that isn't the way market participants generally act -- they don't anticipate events until they are just about to occur. They don't price them in weeks ago and then do nothing in the days leading up to the event.
This is my long-winded way of saying I believe the market has not fully priced in a less hawkish FOMC and that we could see a positive response to a market-friendly policy statement. However, we still have to figure out if we will get one. If it was a certainty, then we wouldn't have much of a chance of a favorable response. If everyone already was comfortable that they knew what the Fed would do, the most likely response would be a sell the news event. Because the market is not totally convince the Fed will be more dovish, we have a decent chance of a positive market response to the news.
One positive the market has going for it is that the technical setup is quite promising. If the Fed does deliver, we have a good base in place, which can serve as a launch pad to take out recent highs. I'm cautiously optimistic that scenario will play out.
We have flat action to start the day. Overseas markets are mixed, gold is pulling back, and oil is up slightly. I noticed quite a few small-cap oil and gas charts setting up nicely and will be looking to make some buys in that group today.
Gary B. Smith:
-
PIMCO's Kiesel tells Bloomberg that they are advising people to "stay in the front end of the yield curve...We like anything from two to five years." He adds, "I'm not that confident that this economy can withstand higher interest rates. We think the Fed is going to be done soon."
-
As expected the FOMC decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%
-
turg rallib
-
10yr yeld tuleb alla ja kogu turg rallib. Eriline tähelepanu homidel.HGX +1,5%
-
12/13 04:09pm [SCSS] UPDATE: Expects to meet or exceed highend of forecasts
-
Kas SNRR-i kohta ka Pro all midagi kirjutatakse? Eile oli tulemused!
