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Börsipäev 14. detsember

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  • Nikkei kukkus üle 300 punkti pärast Jaapani majandusbaromeetri Tankani avaldamist.
    Saksamaa DAX on väikeses miinuses

    Naftafutuurid on nullis
    Kuld taas languses
    Dollar 1.20, nõrgenenud võrreldes eilsega

    8:30 avaldatakse USA väliskaubandusbilanss
    10:30 USA iganädalane nafta laovarude raport

    ***
    Bear Stern alandas Apple(AAPL) reitingut
  • Räägid homsest, ennustad? :D
    täna 14 kuupäev.
  • UBS initiates Tiffany (TIF 40.22) with a Reduce and $38 tgt, as they see no co-specific catalyst that would underpin superior share price performance

    Citigroup initiates Timberland (TBL 32.08) with a Sell and $29 tgt, as they believe the co could be missing significant growth opportunities by not expanding its business into the moderate or mass merchant channel or into women's apparel in the U.S

    UBS initiates Playboy (PLA 13.52) with a Buy and $17.50 tgt, as they believe the improving fundamentals, including growth in the Licensing and Entertainment businesses, more than offset continued losses at Publishing

    Citigroup initiates Nike (NKE 87.92) with a Buy and $104 tgt, as they believe the co's diverse portfolio and net cash position will allow it to take advantage of new growth opportunities

    Thomas Weisel initiates GameStop (GME 32.91) with a Peer Perform, as they expect the co to be one of the primary beneficiaries of the industry's transition to next-generation game consoles

    Brean Murray initiates Websense (WBSN 65.49) with a Strong Buy and $80 tgt, as they believe the co should continue its superior execution and financial performance as it leverages its technology, brand, customer list, and distribution channel

    Bear Stearns downgrades ConocoPhillips (COP 58.20) to Peer Perform from Outperform, as they believe near-term, uncertainties with the timing of the Burlington deal and gas prices could serve as a distraction.

    Bear Stearns downgrades Apple (AAPL 74.98) to Peer Perform from Outperform on valuation

    Apple Computer downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America on valuation; tgt upped to $76 from $52
    Firm cut AAPL to Neutral from Buy. While still likes the story, the recent run-up of over 50% in the last six weeks has left firm less comfortable recommending putting new money to work. Firm's call is about risk/reward, and BofA sees possible upside to the $80 level and downside to the mid-$60s, meaning equal risk/ reward

    Citigroup downgrades Electronic Arts (ERTS 55.14) to Hold from Buy
    Citigroup downgraded ERTS to Hold from Buy, saying to switch into ATVI. Firm notes that NPD sales data for ERTS was up just 8% in November (with units down 5%) and 7% quarter to date, well below their forecast of 16% for console and handheld sales in the quarter. Firm cuts their March quarter sales est to $660 mln (consensus $749 mln), which is below guidance of $710-$810 mln. Firm's call is to switch into ATVI, noting that the 54% sales gain compared to consensus forecasts closer to +10%. These strong results, now showing a 19% rise for October + November with momentum in the right direction, give them increased confidence in their forecasts that they had previously believed might be at risk.

    BBY Best Buy downgraded to In-Line at Goldman Sachs

    Palm (PALM) Overweight rating reiterated at JP Morgan citing channel checks

    Banc of America lowers their estimates and price tgts on select video game companies
    Banc of America cuts their ATVI tgt to $14 from $18 and cuts their TTWO tgt to $19 from $23. Firm cuts their ERTS and ATVI Q3, Q4, and FY07 ests below consensus, and cuts their TTWO 1Q06 and FY06 ests below consensus. Firm cites recent disappointing news around holiday video games sales, and anticipates some further disappointment near-term that will likely keep the stocks not much better than range-bound for the time being, with still some downside risk.

    BofA affirms its Buy rating on shares of IBM (IBM) as the firm expects a solid qtr in mid-Jan. Firm sees slight risk to Services bookings this quarter (possibly flat or down y/y), but believe other business units are doing fairly well and expect solid results.  Firm has lowered its Q4 revenue estimate to $25.0 bln from $25.1 bln, Reuters consensus is $25.5 bln and Y06 revenues to $91.1 bln from $91.4 bln due to foreign exchange; firm does not expect this to negatively impact the stock and notes that HPQ and XRX both talked about negative impacts of FX with no negative stock impact. Firm states there is no change to Q4 EPS estimate of $1.86, althought they do expect the co to beat this number, Reuters consensus is $1.94

  • AAPL täna hea indikaator momentumi ja ostjate huvi mõõtmiseks.
  • Rev Shark:

    As Mo Slows, Traders Confront Dilemma
    12/14/2005 8:52 AM EST

    "The spirit, the will to win, and the will to excel are the things that endure. These qualities are so much more important than the events that occur."

    -- Vince Lombardi

    Now that the FOMC interest rate decision is over and we enter the final days of trading for 2005, the question for us to contemplate is whether the bulls have the desire and will to drive this market higher. They have produced a solid rally off the lows we hit in October but they have been losing traction in recent weeks. The indices aren't trading down but they are losing traction and have not been able to generate much momentum.

    The course of recent events has favored the bulls. Economic news has been good, oil and gas prices have faltered, and yesterday the Fed hinted that it may not continue to raise interest rates forever. Even seasonality greatly favors the bulls in the final weeks of the year.

    But the direction of the market has little to do with events at this point -- it is about the spirit and drive that market participants have toward putting money to work. We need to see some enthusiasm again to get this market running. Enthusiasm is contagious because it draws in the meek and uncertain who are sitting on the sidelines, it scares the bears and shorts into covering, and it feeds on itself as investors worry about being left behind.

    Have we lost the will to drive this market higher? Have the bulls depleted their energy and used up their buying power?

    Technically, although we haven't done anything for a couple of weeks now, the bulls still have the edge. We are holding above support levels and the action qualifies as consolidation of gains rather than distribution. If the bulls can hold on to key support, they have a good chance of benefiting from a "if they can't take them down we might as well buy them" rally in the waning days of the year. Holiday trading tends to favor the bulls, so they have a slight edge there emotionally.

    But the bulls can't dawdle too long because the loss of momentum and enthuasiasm starts taking a toll even on the more bullish market participants after a while. If things slowly start to slip, the frustration grows and there will be an inclination to lock in gains, call it a year and enjoy the holidays.

    So we are at a tricky juncture. If the bulls can hold solidly above support levels they have a good chance of some positive holiday action, but if they let things drip lower they will lose traction and their advantage in the market.

    In the early going today there seems to be a bit of gloom about the tepid reaction to the Fed. There is a lot of second guessing this morning about how positive that news was and the consensus seems to be it was just OK. We have mixed action overseas, gold is down sharply and the dollar is taking a hit. Oil is close to flat. The biggest positive we have at the moment is that the gloom seems quite pervasive.

     

     

  • Täna majadeehitajad päris tugevad taas. TOL on näidanud üleüldse väga head reaktsiooni oma vahekokkuvõttele, vaatamata suhteliselt crapist sõnastusest. $HGX+1,3%
  • AAPL on täna küll korraliku müügisurve alla sattunud. Paha lugu callid käes.
  • Täna toimub rotatsioon. Näiteks tehnoloogiasektorist ja biotehhist housing-sektorisse ja pangandusse.

  • pangandust siiski väga erutavaks ei peaks. Pigem majad, lennundus, "õlid" ja isegi jaekaubandus

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