Börsipäev 21.detsember
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Jaapani Nikkei 225 15957.57, +316.31 (+2.02%) Tegi täna 5 aasta tipu
Energiafutuurid kauplevad enne USA naftavarude raportit(10:30) väikses plussis
Kuld $490.81/oz, +$1.44, triivib alla
Valuutaturg on muutusteta
Saksamaa DAX kaupleb viimase 52 nädala tippude juures
USA indeksifutuurid on rohelised
NIKKEI ja DAX rekordite toetusel tehakse täna USA aktsiaturul rallikatse -
Nucor(NUE) target raised to $75 at UBS
Goldman Sachs downgrades Gateway (GTW 2.59) to Underperform from In-Line, as firm sees the stock weighed down by increasing competition from Acer and Lenovo, Ted Waitt's 10b-5 share sale program, and their own negative mix shift to retail
Morgan Keegan initiates Coldwater Creek (CWTR 31.80) with a Market Perform based on valuation
Jefferies initiates Cerner (CERN 88.71) with a Buy and $99 tgt, as they believe the co is well positioned to serve the information technology needs of inpatient and outpatient care providers domestically and overseas
JP Morgan upgrades Albertson's (ABS 23.77) to Neutral from Underweight, as they believe strategic alternatives are in process
Stanford Group initiates XM Satellite Radio (XMSR 28.50) with a Buy and $35 tgt, citing accelerating growth led by enhanced distribution from auto manufacturers, holiday sales, discounted equipment and new content including Major League Baseball
Stanford Group initiates Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 6.59) with a Buy, citing accelerating growth led by enhanced distribution from auto manufacturers, holiday sales, low churn of 1.5%/month and consumer anticipation of the arrival of Howard Stern
Lehman initiates Avon Products (AVP 29.18) with an Underweight and $27 tgt as they believe direct selling is a momentum business and AVP's sales are declining or decelerating in 6 of its top 7 markets which account for 65% of sales
Goldman Sachs says that while it can't recommend Apple (AAPL 72.11) as more than a trade into MacWorld as it seems fairly valued, the firm raises its CY'06 EPS estimate of $1.92 from $1.73.
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Rev Shark:
Market Needs a Spark
12/21/2005 9:06 AM EST"A great flame follows a little spark."
-- Dante Alighieri
The market has struggling for over a week now. The powerful momentum that has been in place since the lows in October has faltered and there is increasing worry that we might not see positive holiday trading.
Although the action has been uninspired lately, it hasn't been bad enough to completely kill the uptrend. There seems to be just enough buyers under the surface to prevent a total collapse, but the bulls are staying cautious.
What is particularly interesting is that although there seem to be quite a few folks looking for Santa to arrive and deliver a flurry of gains and higher prices, very few folks seem willing to anticipate his arrival. Market participants are standing aside and waiting for someone else to start the buying onslaught.
What this market needs is just a small spark of buying that ignites the belief that the end of the year rally is on. The hopeful bulls sitting on the sidelines are looking for some sign that Santa will deliver. They don't need a lot of encouragement to jump into this market, just some reassurance that risks have diminished and that others are ready to commit their capital.
2005 has been a poor year for seasonality. We had a meltdown in January that really hurt some folks, and some of the other traditional periods of strength and weakness have not occurred. It isn't a big surprise that market participants are a little skeptical about an end of the year rally. That skepticism is making them less anticipatory, but if we start to move upward, the floodgates of buying should open quickly.
So that leaves us in a situation like the classic vaudeville act of Alfonse and Gaston: "After you, my dear Alfonse. No, no, you first, my dear Gaston." Sooner or later someone will make the move, and we will need to be ready to act.
We have a mildly positive start on the way. Overseas markets were mostly up. Oil is bouncing and gold is recovering a bit after crashing down through the $500 mark. I'll be looking for another long-side gold trade soon.
