Börsipäev 6.jaanuar
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8:30, 25 minuti pärast avaldatakse USA tööjõuturu numbrid, oodatakse 215K uue töökoha loomist
...paradoksaalselt peaks aktsiaturg tugevama raporti puhul langema ja nõrgema raporti puhul tõusma,
kui tööjõuturg on tugev, siis jätkab fed intresside tõstmist, mis aktsiaturule paha -
CSFB downgrades Microsoft (MSFT 26.99) to Neutral from Outperform, as they don't see the shares outperforming the software sector over the next 12 months
Deutsche Bank downgrades Ryanair (RYAAY 57.49) to Sell from Hold, as they cite valuation and the entire European airline sector could have another year of progressively rebuilding profitability
Harris Nesbitt upgrades Boston Scientific (BSX 25.87) to Outperform from Neutral and $35 tgt, as they believe the co faces easy comps in 2006 and stands to close the Guidant acquisition
JP Morgan upgrades Yum Brands (YUM 49.16) to Overweight from Neutral, as they cite China's recent difficulties are lapped and solid U.S. comp performance continues with a generally benign cost environment
A.G. Edwards initiates UnitedHealth Group (UNH 61.69) with a Buy and $72 tgt, as they believe the co's robust product suite and operational excellence will generate increasingly higher marginsEdwards initiates Wellpoint (WLP 78.99) with a Buy and $88 tgt, as they believe the co can provide double-digit earnings growth due to price increases in line with medical cost inflation between 8% and 8.5%, additional cost cuts related to its merger with Anthem, and selective growth in segments like its national accounts business
CSFB upgrades Salesforce.com (CRM 36.06) to Outperform from Neutral and $50 tgt, as they believe the trend toward On Demand computing is still in its early stages and will propel significant growth in the coming years
CSFB upgrades BEA Systems (BEAS 10.13) to Outperform from Neutral with a $12 tgt, as they believe the co is strategically levered to the firm's 2006 thesis of improved enterprise spending and further industry consolidation
Piper Jaffray upgrades St. Jude Medical (STJ 50.54) to Outperform from Market Perform and $60 tgt, based on their belief that success with gaining ICD market share due to Guidant's woes is sustainable
BofA upgrades Legg Mason (LM 117.37) to Buy from Neutral and $147 tgt, as they believe premium growth justifies a premium valuation
First Albany raises their tgt on Microstrategy (MSTR $87.71) to $114 from $98
Goldman Sach raises their implied value on Goolge (GOOG $451.75) to $500 from $400 based on GOOG continuing to achieve the financial measures that support their $500 implied value; the firm also raises their 2005, 2006 and 2007 ests
Goldman Sach raises their implied value on Yahoo (YHOO $41.53) to $50 from $40-$44 based on their higher est's and rolling forward valuation to year end '06, the firm also raises their 2006 and 2007 EBITDA/E.P.S
Morgan Stanley says their survey of oncologists indicates that many of them currently have no patients on Genentech's (DNA 94.23) Avastin in new indications in breast and lung cancer, and penetration remains low eight months after the release of positive clinical data
CSFB raises their tgt on Novell (NOVL 8.78) to $12 from $9 saying they remain convinced that Novell should be able to deliver substantial operating margin expansion, and they are pleased to see mgmt adopt a share buyback program, intention to divest Celerant, and reduce headcount
CSFB raises their tgt on Redhat (RHAT 29.05) to $35 from $31 saying remain comfortable that Red Hat can meet their rev, earnings, and cash flow forecasts and that there is more upside in the stock
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108K tuli. Indeksid tõusus.
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Kas keegi NUVO ga ka tegeleb!
Eile tõusis 40% -
Rev Shark:
Don't Be a Bull; Be a Balanced Bull
1/6/2006 8:58 AM EST"There is a proper balance between not asking enough of oneself and asking or expecting too much."
-- May Sarton
The year's off to an impressive start, with the Nasdaq in particular on a tear and technology and select retail stocks providing leadership. After threatening a technical breakdown at the end of 2005, the major indices have righted themselves and are threatening to break out to price levels they haven't seen in years. The Fed has seemingly adopted a more market friendly stance and economic data seem to be generally solid.
Of course, things don't look so rosy to the bears, and they characterize this strength as just some temporary insanity caused by the new year. They argue that the consumer is due to die an ugly and painful death as the value of his home plummets and he cuts back his WalMart shopping budget. Maybe the economic stats don't look that bad, but just wait it will catch up with us, they warn.
What is a market player to do? Do we ignore the strength that is in front of us and is making us money or do we ignore the fact that maybe we have gone a little too far, too fast? The answer is that we attempt a little balance. We stay positive but we make sure we don't set expectations too high. We take some profits when our stocks make big moves rather than focus on the hope of even more gains.
Many market participants fail to realize that you can still be a bull even though you are doing some selling. Being bullish doesn't mean holding on to positions no matter what, but many investors have been brainwashed by brokers and mutual funds into thinking that selling is a sinful action that should only be done in the most extreme cases.
The truth is that often the best way to play a market rally isn't to just hold on to the same stocks the whole time but to take some gains and rotate into some new stocks that have yet to fully participate. Obviously when a stock goes straight up the risks of a pullback increase. You can lower your risk and still stay invested by rotating into other stocks that may not be as technically precarious.
Be a bull but also stay balanced. Taking profits while you continue to look for new buys when the market is hot is the way to keep growing your portfolio.
We have some fireworks this morning on the jobs report. The headline number is well below estimates but is more than offset by a revision upward in November and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.9%. The market is up strongly on the news, probably because of some hope that this will nail down the end of the FOMC interest rate hikes. The market seem a bit overly euphoric given the mixed nature of the news and I would not be surprised to see this open sold if the gap upward holds.
Overnight oil and gold moved upward and overseas markets were mostly positive. Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) has a downgrade this morning and we'll see if that has any effect.
Position: No positions in stock mentioned
