Börsipäev 13. jaanuar
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Goldman Sachs upgrades Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 31.02) to Outperform from In-Line, as they see all four of the co's businesses doing better and will likely see gains on a number of fronts
Deutsche Bank downgrades Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 35.35) to Sell from Hold and $26 tgt, as they believe Q405 will mark the last quarter of strong momentum, as they face a significantly more competitive Intel
Prudential upgrades American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS 25.22) to Neutral from Underweight and $25 tgt, as they see risk to the upside in the story near-term form potentially improving spring product and want to step to the sidelines
Prudential downgrades Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF 66.113) to Neutral from Overweight and $70 tgt, citing valuation
Prudential downgrades Ann Taylor Stores (ANN 33.94) to Neutral from Overweight and $36 tgt, citing valuation
Sachs upgrades Seagate Technology (STX 23.00) to Outperform from In-Line, as they see the prospect of substantially rising earnings estimates as a powerful driver
CSFB upgrades U.S Steel (X 49.54) to Outperform from Neutral to and raises their tgt to $57 from $40 baased on improving pricing outlook & low expectations. The firm also sees the co as a potential a consolidation candidate, saying X stands to benefit from the potential for further consolidation in North American steel
CSFB downgrades Nucor (NUE 69.99) to Neutral from Outperform but raises their tgt to $75 from $64 based on relative valuation to X, coupled with what they believe to be an improving outlook for X
Bear Stearns downgrades SanDisk (SNDK $77.22) to Peer Perform from Outperform citing valuation and the belief that the co will need to make price moves when the tightness eases to sustain demand momentum
Piper Jaffray raises their tgt on Apple (AAPL $84.29) to $103 from $80 based on the firms expectations for continued mkt share gains for both Mac and iPod through continued product innovationUBS initiates Micron Tech (MU $14.57) with a Buy and a $22 tgt saying longer term positive stance on the co's ability to leverage its D.R.A.M expertise into a strong franchise of embedded N.A.N.D non-volatile memory is tempered only by near-term D.R.A.M uncertainty and secondarily by manufacturing risks
BofA is initiating Wal-Mart (WMT 45.74) with a Neutral rating and a $45 tgt on valuation, saying they believe comps are the most important driver of stock performance for WMT. They believe WMT's 2-year comp trend has decelerated from 17% in 1999 to 7% in 2005; overly ambitious square footage growth, higher energy prices, and competition have all been headwinds
CSFB is rasing their tgt on Alcoa (AA $28.81) to $35 from $32 saying Alcoa is positioned to be the turnaround story within the U.S. metals & mining sector in 2006. However, operating results clearly need to improve
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Rev Shark:
First, Look to Protect the Downside
"The first step to making money is not losing it."
-- Ed Easterling
The ultimate challenge of the stock market is to make as much money as possible when things are going up and to lose as little as possible when things are going down. Particularly difficult is shifting from money-making mode to capital-preservation mode. The question is timing: You are either going to miss out on future gains by becoming defensive too early, or give back some profits by not becoming defensive quickly enough.
Yesterday we had the first pullback of the year. It was minor and welcomed by many since it is a start in alleviating the overbought condition of the indices. What we don't know is how much more of a pullback we might see: we could have a bit more downside or we might tumble into the abyss.
There are a thousand different opinions about where the market is headed from here but we need focus on just one major consideration: How do we avoid losing our recent gains? First we must protect what we have and once we are in good shape we need to look for new opportunities to make money.
In their excitement about a hot market, many market participants forget how valuable good defense can be. Locking in profits, holding your account near its highs and keeping some cash ready for new opportunities as weakness plays is where you gain big advantages over the buy-and-holders.
If you play good defense you will actually find yourself rooting for a pullback so that you can take advantage of the new opportunities that inevitably emerge. That is the way I feel right now. I want to see some more market softness because over the past few days I have locked in lots of gains and have plenty of cash to deploy into new opportunities.
If you haven't taken some gains already it is not too late to do so. The market and many individual stocks are still quite extended, and keep in mind that earnings season kicks off next week and many of the stocks that have made big moves will be ripe for a "sell the news" reaction as numbers roll in.
When the market is in a strong downtrend it is pretty easy to think about playing defense. When the market is hot and you have been racking up profits, defense is much harder to implement. But if you are extremely stubborn about giving back profits at this point you will find yourself well ahead of the game.
We have a flat start shaping up. PPI and retail sales numbers are lower than expected, which gave the market a slight boast because it is another reason for the Fed to go away and leave us alone. Asian markets continue to plug along but Europe was soft, oil is holding steady and gold is down slightly.
