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Listen to Your Stocks
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/3/2006 9:15 AM EDT
"It is only possible to live happily-ever-after on a day-to-day basis."
Margaret Bonnano
Good morning and welcome to the kick-off of the second quarter or 2006. The just completed quarter was the best first quarter for the S&P 500 since 1999 but it was the small-caps that really shined over the past three months. The Russell 2000 Index of small capitalization stocks was up a very impressive 13.63%.You might think that such strong action means market participants are feeling particularly upbeat and optimistic. With the indices at all-time highs and some good gains under our belts we should be living happily ever after.
But market participants are not exactly giddy over this market. Even those who have been bullish are harboring some doubts about whether this action can be sustained. Few, if any, seem to believe this uptrend can continue for long.
It really isn't that surprising that folks have some niggling doubts about the market, because the macroeconomic issues that confront us are painfully obvious. We have a continuously hawkish Fed, inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, a huge budge deficit, a struggling dollar, high energy prices and an aging rally. How can any thinking person not be worried given all those issues?
So what do we do? Do we focus on the macroeconomic concerns and run for the safety of cash or do we stick with a market that has been choppy and inconsistent by slowly and steadily trading up? It's a matter of style and some may want to cash out and sit on the sidelines, but for me the best approach is to stick with the bulls until there is clear reason not to. That means carefully evaluating the action day to day and looking for proof that these macro concerns really are starting to matter to the market.
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Märksõnad:
Manufacturing growth slowed in March, according to a closely watched survey of industry executives released Monday.
Caterpillar Inc. led a gain in industrial shares after a government report showed construction spending in February increased more than economists expected.
Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler reported higher sales than a year ago for the first three months of 2006 on Monday, but Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and Nissan Motors results totaled up at fewer vehicles than in the first quarter last year.
U.S. Treasuries fell as government bonds around the world declined on signs manufacturing in Germany and Japan gained, adding to evidence that central banks will need to raise interest rates this year.
The dollar fell from the highest in almost three weeks against the yen and declined against the euro after a report showed U.S. manufacturing growth slowed in March.
Gold and silver futures closed at heights not seen in more than two decades and copper futures set a record Monday. -
Buffett Makes $14 Billion Bet That Global Stocks Won't Plunge
April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, struggling to find acquisitions big enough to boost Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s returns, is making a $14 billion bet on the global stock market.
Berkshire sold a form of insurance to buyers who wanted protection from a drop in ``four major equity indexes'' over the next 15 to 20 years, according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Instead of buying the individual shares, Buffett is wagering the indexes, three of which are outside the U.S., won't tumble and force Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire to pay a claim.
