Börsipäev 2. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Nagu teada, oli eilse börsipäeva lõpu tugeva kukkumise taga Bernake kommentaar FEDi tõlgendustele. Turg mõistis seda suht üheselt. Saame näha.
Täna Euroopa kevadiselt roheline ning ka USA futuurid plusspoolel. Makrouudistest täna midagi märkimisväärset ei ole (Auto Sales, Truck sales, Factory Orders). Kalendrisse piiludes näivad huvipakkuvamad tulemuste avaldajad Credit Suisse (CSR), Denbury Resources (DNR), Dreamworks (DWA), Duke Energy (DUK), Fresh Delmonte (FDP), Sirius Satellite (SIRI), Hilton Hotels (HLT). -
Market Splash Aside, Fed's Still in Play
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/2/2006 8:38 AM EDT"If I had my choice I would kill every reporter in the world but I am sure we would be getting reports from hell before breakfast."
-- General William Tecumseh Sherman
General Sherman's opinion of reporters may be just a tad harsh but there are times when his viewpoint seems well considered. Yesterday is a case in point. The market was drifting along quietly and not doing much when Maria Bartiromo reported on CNBC that Ben Bernanke had told her that the market has it wrong and that he is flexible, not dovish. The market response to this "news" was quick and negative.After pondering why this important news was withheld by CNBC until the final hour of trading, the next question that comes to mind is whether Bernanke really meant to finetune his monetary policy through dinner conversation with a television reporter. In the past, this sort of policy tweaking was communicated through key reporters in very sober stories at the Washington Post or Wall Street Journal. It seems doubtful that the Fed would want to have this information communicated in such imprecise language as traders roared in the background.
In fact, you have to wonder if Bartiromo simply spun some innocuous dinner conversation into market-moving news. The Fed has already made it quite clear that it doesn't know what it will do in the future and it seems peculiar that Bernanke would try to reinforce that message in the manner that unfolded yesterday. Only the most optimistic bull in denial would believe the "one and done" scenario given the comments that have been made about being data-dependent.
In any event the market is working to shrug off that hiccup this morning as it comes to the realization that the "news" really isn't news at all. The big problem for the Fed now is that the market seems to be becoming increasingly disenchanted with Bernanke's attempts at greater transparency.
So far in the battle against inflation the Fed resembles a cartload of chimpanzees with seltzer bottles trying to put out a fire. It would be quite easy to inform the market in clear terms that the Fed wants to evaluate economic data as it comes in and want to leave their options open as to how many more rate hikes are to come. That message is diluted by inconsistent public statement from multiple sources and comments to self-aggrandizing reporters.
As far as the market is concerned, the Fed is still in play and we can't conclude that there are only one or two more interest rate hikes to come. Economic data are going to be very important in making that determination, which means the market is going to be very sensitive to it. The market would strongly prefer to have a high level of certainty about the course of interest rates but it obviously is not going to get that. That is a negative and may help to keep the market contained to some degree but there is still the light of a more dovish Fed at the end of the tunnel.
The market seems to be quickly dismissing the CNBC sensationalism this morning as overseas markets perk up on a strengthened dollar after the dollar's nasty plunge. Oil continues to trade near its highs as Iran's deputy oil minister muses about crude at $100 a barrel. Commodity stocks continue to look strong but the market seems to be able to tolerate that fairly well.
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Verizon teatas oma esimese kvartali kasumi langemisest 1.6B-le, 56 senti aktsia kohta. Oodati 59 senti aktsia kohta. 1.8B aasta eest. Müük kasvas 25%. Nii kasumi languse kui müüginumbri tõusu taga on värskelt ühinenud MCI.
Varem LHV foorumites rohkelt kõneainet pakkunud SIRI teatas I kvartali oodatust väiksemast kahjuminumbrist. Aktsia eelturul tugevasti plussis. -
Nagu ennist öeldud, on kandunud Euroopa positiivsus üle ka USA turgudele. Teisest küljest investorite tähelepanu toornaftal. Toornafta hind taas üle $74.
