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Cast a Wary Eye on a Move Higher
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/2/2006 8:37 AM EDT
"The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one.
-- George Bernard Shaw
A big point move in the indices with technology stocks leading the charge had the bulls feeling much happier yesterday. After the tough month of May, the inclination of many is to proclaim that the worst is behind us as we kick off a new month. The action yesterday certainly encouraged that point of view.After the misery of May, many investors are sitting on losses. They have a strong tendency to hope that this market is now going to bounce straight back up to where it was in April and relieve them of the stress they have been suffering. The action yesterday certainly was encouraging in that regard. Those who were hoping to be bailed out really want to believe that it is now going to happen quickly and easily.
Such a hope is dangerous.
It is a big mistake not to be skeptical at this point. That doesn't mean you should be bearish but you certainly should not be quick to buy into the notion that the market has the capacity to move straight back up. It does happen at times, but typically it is difficult for the indices to make a V-shaped recovery.
After the market falls like it did in May, there are two things we know for sure. First, there are a lot of investors with losses who would like to get back to even or just reduce the drawdowns to some extent. Second, there are some bears who had success, and they will be anxious to put on shorts once again.
Both of these factors make a V-shaped bounce unlikely. There is increasing pressure to sell because we tend to move straight back up after a spike down. Of course, there are some folks who went to cash early and are anxious to catch the turn. They can be a source of upside fuel, but there are far more investors with recent losses who would just like to escape the pain.
Another factor at work is that the macro conditions that led to the pullback in the first place are still out there. Nothing much has changed as far as the Fed, inflation, energy prices, emerging markets and all of the other factors that were blamed for the breakdown. It is very likely that some of those concerns will crop up again and be a roadblock that wards against a move straight back up.
If you have been playing for a bounce and profiting during yesterday's strong action, that is great. Just make sure you don't buy into the proposition that all of the market's problems have been solved and it is clear sailing from here. That's poor percentage bet. You don't have to rush to close out your long positions but make sure you monitor them carefully and don't allow yourself to be trapped in them should this bounce falter.
Just because we prefer to be optimistic about what the future holds doesn't mean we should not have a good dose of skepticism. The market has some technical damage to contend with and we can't afford to be too trusting at this point.
The jobs numbers are weak and that is market friendly. Especially positive is that average hourly earnings were up only 0.1% vs. the consensus of 0.3%. It is hard to argue there is wage inflation with that data. The buyers are stepping up and we have a strong open on the way. Overseas markets were generally positive after the strong move in the U.S. and we have positive action continuing this morning in the Nasdaq 100.
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Indoneesiast tuleb täna teateid, et võib olla registreeritud esimene inimeselt inimesele üle kandunud linnugripi juhtum. Uudise järgi ravitakse praegu 25-aastast õde Lääne Javas linnugripi sarnaste sümptomitega. Tehakse katseid haiguse kindlaksmääramiseks. Õde oli eelnevalt ravinud mitmeid linnugrippi nakatunud patsiente. Õde ei puutunud väidetavalt kokku lindudega. Linnugripi aktsiad taas mängus: AVAN, BRCX, GNBT, HEB, NVAX, SVA.
Tunnitasu tõusis 0.1%. Oodati 0.3% tõusu.
Töötusmäär 4.6%. Konsensus oli 4.7%.
Mittepõllumajanduslikke töökohti loodi 75 000. Oodati 170 000. Dollar kiires languses selle uudise peale. -
Päeva algus just väga ilus ei ole, Euroopa turud reageerisid USA tööjustatistikale tugeva tõusuga ning tehti päeva tipud ja seda selleks et USA turu avanedes 1,5 tundi hiljem kukkuda päeva põhjadele.
Tänast tööjustatistikat saab turule nii positiivselt kui negatiivselt interpreteerida, uusi töökohti loodi loodetust tunduvalt vähem, järelikult majanduse olukord on oodatust kehvem ja FED peab intressitõstmise lõpetama. See oleks positiivne sõnum. Negatiivne sõnu on et majanduse olukord on oodatust kehvem. Eks siis paistab milline sõnum võidab.
