Börsipäev 14. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eesti aja järgi kell 15.30 avaldati USA maikuu tarbijahinnaindeks.
Tarbijahinnaindeksi põhiosaks(core CPI), mis ei sisalda energia- ja toiduainete hindu, oli +0.3% - samal ajal analüütikute ametlikud ootused olid +0.2%.
Koos energia ja toiduainetega oli tarbijahinnaindeksi(CPI) tõusuks +0.4%. Analüütikud ootasid siinkohal +0.4%.
Kõrgem tarbijahinnaindeks tähendab, et inflatsiooni ohjamiseks on föderaalreserv sunnitud intresse veelgi tõstma. Kuigi ametlikud ootused core CPI osas olid +0.2%, siis näiteks kuna Nasdaq on viimased 8 börsipäeva allpool eelmise päeva taset sulgunud, on raske öelda, millised olid mitteametlikud ootused ja kuidas turg neile uudistele reageerib. -
Täpselt küll raske hinnata, millest turu kukkumine alguse sai, kuid tundub, et praegune data langeb pigem "vanemasse" kategooriasse (Sell the rumor and buy the news). Natuke negatiivsust päeva algusesse on oodatud.
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Playing a CPI-Induced Bounce
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/14/2006 8:24 AM EDT
"A great flame follows a little spark."
-- Dante Aligheiri
Most traders will get better results if they simply defer to the existing trend and don't try to anticipate turning points. If they wait until there is a clear change in market character before committing their capital, they are likely to do better than constantly trying to catch the moment the market turns.However, more aggressive traders with very short time frames may find that there are times when the odds of catching a quick move are in their favor. If you are an active short-term player who has a short-term time frame and who doesn't let a trade turn into an investment, playing for a quick bounce can be a good approach sometimes.
This morning's conditions seem particularly ripe for some sort of bounce. The catalyst is the upcoming CPI number. The market is down so hard and the Fed has already made its hawkish inclinations so clear that bad news is very likely priced in. Hence, any news, good or bad, is likely to bring in some buyers.
In fact, the best conditions for a rally may be a higher-than-expected CPI number that sparks some initial selling. Because the bad news is already priced in, I believe buyers will quickly jump on weakness and reverse us back up.
CPI is a perfect catalyst at this juncture because the indices are quite oversold once again and anecdotal negativity yesterday was the worst I've seen it since this downtrend started. Keep in mind that bounces can't be trusted to last long but conditions are ripe for a spark that lights a fire. I'll have more after the report.
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Aasta baasile viiduna oli põhiosa CPI kasv 2,4%, samas kui oodati 2,3%. Turgudel reaktsioon üsnagi valuline ja põhjuseks eelkõige see et FED teeb oma intressimäära poliitikat toetudes eelkõige just sellele numbrile ja nende mugavustsooni ülemiseks otsaks on 2%.
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USA inflatsioon on pead tõstmas:
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Väike meenutus ka USA intressimäära osas, nimelt eelmise nn inflatsionitipu ajal oli FED-i lühiajaline intressimäär 6,5%.
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Inflatsioonistatistika allikaks siis US Department of Labor koduleht, et statistikasse mitte ära uppuda soovitan vaadata üleval paremal kastikeses "Latest News" toodud statistikat.
