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Some Positives, but Caution Still Called-For
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/22/2006 9:15 AM EDT
"There are two kinds of people, those who finish what they start and so on."
-- Robert Byrne
Over the past week the major indices have started to produce better technical action. We had a big point move on good volume and breadth a week ago and then after a few days of backing and filling we followed it up with a halfway decent follow-through move yesterday. Volume was a bit light and we faltered into the close but we still managed a decent day.Is this recent action the start of a better and more lasting market turn or just another painful "learning" experience for the hopeful bulls? Anecdotally the trust level in this market seems to be quite low, which is certainly understandable with the Fed lurking about out there with constant talk about inflation being at uncomfortable levels. However, we do have to consider the possibility that the recent market pullback has priced in more interest rate hikes. Certainly the market is no longer optimistic about a "one and done" scenario, but how much more tightening has been discounted?
The other potential market driver out there is earnings. We saw yesterday how a couple of good reports from the likes of Federal Express and Morgan Stanley improved the market mood. Unless business has fallen off a cliff in the last couple months, there should be a number of other companies with badly punished stock prices that will produce some good reports as well. This market pullback has been indiscriminate, crushing good and bad stocks alike. As earnings season approaches, they should begin to sort themselves out and reward astute stock pickers.
So the question remains: Are we in the early stages of a market upturn or just setting up for another ugly pullback? We obviously can't know for sure but what we can do is make sure we keep a close eye on recent lows as key support levels, and monitor the ability of stocks to make higher highs and higher lows. It is foolish to embrace the idea that the worst is behind us but it is equally foolish to be so pessimistic that we don't consider that possibility. Hence we need to keep a very short-term perspective right now while we consider the action.
The FOMC interest rate decision next week is going to be the next key market event. It is widely anticipated that we will see a quarter point interest rate hike but the importance of the event will be the accompanying policy statement. That is the primary focus of traders right now and it is what they will be positioning for over the next couple days.
We have a flat start to the day. Overseas markets were mostly higher. There is some merger and acquisition speculation from analyst in the telecom sector. Oil and gold are trading up.
At the time of publication, De Porre had no positions in stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
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Eelmisel nädalal töötute soodustuste järele esmakordselt avalduse kirjutanud inimeste arv(initial claims) tõusis 11 000 inimese võrra 308,000-le. Analüütikud ootasid keskmiselt ca 305,000. Keskmiselt on juunikuus vastavad nõuded jäänud 303,000 ringi – pidagem aga samal ajal meeles, et maikuus oli keskmine number 334,000 ehk oluliselt suurem. Selline muutus vihjab seetõttu siiski jätkuvale tugevusele tööturul.
Juhtivaid majandusindikaatoreid avaldatakse täna kell 10.00 Ameerika Ühendriikide Idaranniku aja järgi ehk kell 17.00 eesti aja järgi. Antud indikaatorid pakuvad taaskord investoritele võimalust otsida vihjeid inflatsiooni suuruse kohta.
Tulemuste hulgast ka näpuotsaga:
Bed, Bath Beyond(BBBY) on USA suurim kodumööbli jaemüüja. Ettevõte teatas, et kasum(earnings) tõusis 1.5% $100.4 miljonini 1. kvartalil. Olgu siinkohal märgitud, et tegu on väikseima kasumi kasvuga viimase aastakümne jooksul. Ettevõtte aktsia ligi 5% miinuses. -
10.00 Leading Indicators -0.6% vs -0.5% consensus
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tundub et vähemalt paanikat on vähem
enamus mu postisioone ei läinud enam selle langusega kaasa ning püsisid sinised ka siis kui indeksid põhjas
varem sellist asja ei näinud
