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Take Pulse of This Moribund Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/27/2006 8:24 AM EDT
"A bore is a man who deprives you of solitude without providing you with company."
-- Gian Vincenzo Gravina (1664-1718)
This market is a bore and very likely to remain so until the Fed interest rate decision Thursday is out of the way. Unfortunately boring markets can't be completely ignored -- they still demand our attention because of the likelihood of a sudden surprise.
Markets have a tendency to lull us into complacency before suddenly throwing something new at us. Hence, we need to be vigilant even when the action is slow and boring.Monitoring the market while it is doing little makes for a long and tedious day, but it is necessary in order to make sure we can move quickly to profit when conditions change. The one great certainty about the stock market is that things will change; we just never know when.
Many are looking to the Fed interest rate decision to be a catalyst for at least a temporary change in market character. It isn't that the Fed is likely to make things crystal clear as to where interest rates are headed -- in fact, there is little question they will be murky and vague.
It is a news event that will provide an excuse for taking action of some sort. Traders want to trade and investors want to invest and the Fed will give us a reason to make a move of some sort.
For now we battle boredom, but we are not relieved of the responsibility of monitoring the action. It is important to know the conditions and mindset that are in place so that when it's time to make a move, we can do so quickly and with confidence. Right now it seems this market is hopeful for something of consequence from the Fed, and if it doesn't get it the chances for a selloff are quite high.
On the other hand, some incremental increase in clarity, even if it's minor, may be enough to attract buyers. I have no idea how this will unfold but we need to keep our finger on the pulse of the market so we can better gauge which scenario will play out.
We have another quiet start but with a slight negative bias. The news wires don't have much of interest, overseas markets are flat to down, gold and oil are trading up, and we have consumer confidence and existing-home sales data due this morning.
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Nafta hinnad on tasapisi taas tähelepanu alla tõusmas. Toornafta barreli hind on esimest korda viimase 2 nädala jooksul jõudnud taaskord $72 juurde.
Ettevõtete tandrilt:
Marvell(MRVL) ostab Intelilt $600 miljoni eest divisjoni, mis teeb protsessoreid käeshoitavatele seadmetele(handheld devices)(parandatud). Hind makstakse kõik rahas, kuid Intelil on ka õigus sellest kuni $100 miljoni väärtuses ka Marvelli aktsiaid saada. Tehing peaks sulguma 5 kuuga. Konverentsikõnel teatas Marvell, et tehing on alguses veidi aktsiaid lahjendava mõjuga(dilutive).
Makrosündmustest:
USA aja järgi kell 10.00 (Eestis kell 17.00) avaldatakse tarbijausaldus(consumer confidence) ja olemasolevate majade müüginumbrid(existing home sales data). -
Tarbijausaldus oli 105.7. Analüütikud ootasid keskmiselt aga 103.9 punkti.
Olemasolevaid maju müüdi 6.67 miljonit. Ootused olid 6.61 miljonit. -
MOVI hinnahüpe, oskab keegi kommenteerida?
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Ma ei tea, kas mingi uudis oli väljas või mitte, aga viimastel päevadel on tähelepanu keskpunkti sattunud potentsiaalsed short sqeezid (a la ostk). Arvan, et MOVI sai sama saatuse osaliseks.
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Marvelli poolt ostetav divisjon teeb protsessoreid siiski näiteks RIMMi ja PALMi handheldidele, Marvell ise handhelde ei tooda.
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Vabandust, aga mida see short sqeez tähendab? Keegi müüs MOVI lühikeseks ja nüüd võttis kasumi välja?
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Short squeeze tähendab pigem seda, et aktsia hinda üritatakse üles osta ja sellega sunnitakse omakorda lühikesi positsioone omavaid spekulante katma (aktsiaid tagasi ostma), mis tõstab omakorda hinda. Selline asi on muidugi võimalik vaid aktsiatega, mille vabalt kaubeldav kogus (float) on väike.
