Börsipäev 29. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Makroandmed:
Täna avaldati SKP 1. kvartali lõplik näitaja, mis tõusis 5.6%-le, mis vastab analüütikute ootustele. Kaasaskäiv deflaator, üks inflatsiooni võtmenäitajaid, oli 3.1%, mis oli oodatud 3.3%-st väiksem. Tööturul esmakordsed nõuded(initial claims) tõusid 4000 võrra ja on nüüd 313 000 peal (konsensus oli 310 000).
Samas, hetkel on investorite tähelepanu koondunud ikkagi kella 21.15-sele föderaalreservi õhtusele intressimäära teatele.
Spekulatsioonid:
Homsega saab läbi 2006. aasta 2. kvartal ning mõningane kvartali-lõpu-portfellide ümberbalansseerimine ja lühikeseks müükide katmine on hommikul üheks tõusu põhjuseks. 2. kvartalil on seni Dow langenud –1.2%, S&P500 –3.8% ja Nasdaq –9.7%. Mõningad turuosalised usuvad, et pärast tänast intresside tõstmist, kui erilisi üllatusi pole, liigutakse plusspoolele ning koos varsti algava tulemustehooajaga liigub osaliselt investorite tähelepanu makroandmetelt ettevõtte tulemuste peale. -
Fed Has Market on Pins and Needles
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/29/2006 9:06 AM EDT"Ever notice that 'what the hell' is always the right decision?"
-- Marilyn MonroeAfter what seems like weeks of waiting, we finally hear what the Fed is going to do about interest rates. The decisions are always important, but the one today has taken on particular significance due to the unusual amount of "jawboning" by the Fed and the intense focus by market participants lately on interest rates and inflation. There is little other news of importance affecting the global stock market right now. It is all about interest rates.
The consensus opinion is that the Fed is going to say "what the hell," raise rates a quarter point yet again and tell us it will wait to see further data before it makes any decisions about what to do in the future.
A Fed that is dependent on future data certainly seems like a good idea if you are trying to make the right decision, but from the market's perspective, it is preferable to have certainty. The market always wants clarity, because it makes it much easier to make investing decisions if you don't have to guess as much about the future.
So if the Fed does what the majority thinks and raises rates and leaves the future murky, how will the market react? The good news is that the market has been in a sharp downtrend since the last interest rate decision. The market has been anticipating a continually hawkish Fed. The million-dollar question is, have we already priced in what most are anticipating?
I think that we are close enough that there is a good chance that buyers will step up once the news is out. We might see some initial panic-sell on the news, but I would look for quick stabalization. A bounce might not last for long, but there should be something. The likelihood is that we will roll over again fairly soon since we will still be groping for clarity, but there should be some temporary relief.
What if the Fed decides to surprise us with a half-point hike? Ultimately, that would probably be seen as a exclamation point putting at least a temporary end to rate hikes. Unless the Fed is truly panicked over inflation, it has to be concerned about the issue of over-tightening, and a half-point hike is very likely to be followed by a pause.
The market is showing some early strength, which is probably due to relief that the Fed will be on the back burner shortly. It we run up too much before the decision, that is going to make things very tricky.
We'll discuss strategy further before the decision at 2:15 pm ET. I'm having some computer problems this morning that I need to contend with.
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Arvutiparandaja lubas peale kahte (pm ET) läbi hüpata :)
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FOMC decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-1/4 percent. Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices. Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months. Ongoing productivity gains have held down the rise in unit labor costs, and inflation expectations remain contained. However, the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures. Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives.
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lõpuks ometigi mingigi kergendus on saabunud
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Sõidame :) Homme hommikul Aasiast, Euroopast ja ka arenevatelt turgudelt korralikku põrget oodata. Aasta põhjad tõenäoliselt tehtud.
