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Market Worries Are a Welcome Sight
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/6/2006 9:01 AM EDT
"This has been a great year for preventive worrying. Seldom in recent history have so many people worried about so many things that haven't happened."
-- James RestonInvestors can always find something to worry about. In good times, they worry that they aren't doing better. Greed is really nothing more than worry that we should make more money. In bad times, investors worry that things will never improve. They are weighed down by the feeling that market conditions will stay poor far into the future and that they will never realize good profits again.
Worry is the natural state of affairs in the market, and if we understand it and embrace it, we can make it work to our benefit. The key thing to keep in mind is that just because market participants are worried, it doesn't mean the market can't work higher. Quite often a high degree of worry is actually a prod that will push prices higher.
Currently the market is tremendously worried about one key thing: how the fight against inflation will play out and affect the stock market. Some are worried that the Fed will be too aggressive and push the economy into a recession by raising interest rates too aggressively. Others fear that a slower economy won't stop inflationary pressures and that we already have conditions that will cause us to descend into the misery of stagflation. We worry about how the housing market is going to cool and hurt consumers, and we worry about how the job market is so strong that it will create inflationary pressures.
The worries are obvious and everywhere, and they set the stage for the market to work higher. One important precondition that is in place that will help us scale the proverbial wall of worry is the presence of better technical patterns in the major indices. We hit a low in June, based for a couple weeks and then popped higher when our worries about what the Fed might do at its last meeting proved to be too negative. Yesterday we had a good bout of profit-taking, and we pulled back toward support levels but still have plenty of room to the downside before we do any severe technical damage.
The technical picture isn't bad, and when we combine that with the high degree of worry and concern over inflation, interest rates and the state of the economy, the conditions are ripe for the market to slowly move up. The most important factor of all right now is that no one is unaware of the potential problem of inflation. It is painfully obvious, and that means it has probably been discounted to some extent by the market. Our worries are prices in, and unless we get some newer and bigger worries, we probably have already done much of the selling we intended to do.
What we have to watch for is how the market deals with worry. Do we hold key technical levels and shrug off news that confirms what we are already concerned about? That is what climbing a wall of worry is all about. It occurs when the market has priced in the issues that is troubling it to such a degree that bad news no longer results in more selling.
With earnings season approaching, a somewhat better technical picture and plenty of worries and concern in the air, the conditions are ripe for us to slowly and unevenly climb higher. It won't be easy, and we will slip back down at times, but this is a market that is already causing so much anxiety that things are likely to improve.
We have a slightly positive start this morning. There is some concern about another spike up in crude oil, but the weekly unemployment data is in-line, and European markets are quite strong.
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Sündmused turgudel arenevad omasoodu, kuid annan teada, et kommenteerisin LHV Pro all oleva James Riveri idee käekäiku. Tasub järgi vaadata.
Tänased makrosündmused:
Initial Claims 313 000 vs 315 000. Seega tuli suht oodatud number, kuid 4- nädala keskmisest (305 500) ollakse ikkagi oluliselt kõrgemal. Investorite tähelepanu on tegelikult koondunud aga ikkagi homme avaldatavale juuni tõõjõuturu andmetele.
Gaas ja nafta:
Kütuse varusid nähakse keskmiselt eelmisel nädalal langevat 650 000 barreli võrra. Kui lähekski nii, siis oleks tegu teise järjestikuse vähenemisega pärast sellele eelnevat 5-nädalalist keskmist 1.4 miljoni barrelist varude tõusu. Veel usutakse, et distillaatide varud tõusid 1.6 miljonit barrelit ja toornafta varud vähenesid 2 miljonit. Ametlikud andmed tulevad Eesti aja järgi kell 17.30
Keskmine anlüütikute ennustus on, et nädalal, mis lõppes 30. juuni, tõusid gaasivarud 70bcf. Hetkel kaupleb maagaas maadalaimal tasemel alates 2004. aastast alates seoses praeguse tavapärast veidi jahedama ilma tõttu, mistõttu on lühiajaliselt ka väiksem nõudlus elektri tootmisel ja õhu jahutamisel. -
Kütusevarud tõusid 727 000 barrelit. Oluline tõus, arvestades, et oodati suurt langust.
Toornafta varud kukkusid 2.42 miljonit barrelit. Oodatust veidi enam.
Distillaadid tõusid 1.04 miljonit barrelit. Oodatust vähem. -
Dow on saanud tugeva tõuke tubakafirma Altria MO üle 6 protsendilisest tõusust, Florida kohus lükkas nimelt täna tagasi tubkafirmade vastu esitatud 145 miljardi dollari suuruse kahjunõude.
