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The Long Term Determines the Winners
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/10/2006 8:56 AM EDT
"Energy and persistence conquer all things."
-- Benjamin Franklin
The stock market is always a difficult beast to wrestle, but it is more trying than usual right now. Market participants are fixated on interest rates and inflation to the exclusion of everything else. But the real problem is that all economic news seems to be a negative no matter what it is. If we see strong reports, the worry is that it is inflationary and means that the Fed will continue to hike rates. If the economic data are weak the worry, is that we are falling into "stagflation" and will face the worst possible combination: a slowing economy and rising prices.
Market participants are worried, and that worry is reflected in the technical condition of the charts. We are groping for some support but action like we had late this past Friday is very dispiriting and makes many investors want to give up in dismay. Throw in the fact that we are now entering the dog days of summer and that we have to wait another week before the earnings season kicks off in earnest, and we have a very difficult trading atmosphere.The most important thing we can do as market players right now is to not let these difficult conditions beat us down. It is very tiring when we don't make progress and see recently hard-won gains disappear in poor action like we had Friday afternoon. It takes a mental, emotional and even a physical toll after a while.
This difficult market may continue for a while but I absolutely positively guarantee you that eventually things will change and that profits will start to come easier. I don't know when that will be, but the one great certainly of the stock market is that things always change. We just have to make sure we have the energy, persistence and drive to continue to do battle as we wait for better conditions
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Täna pärast turgu algab ametlikult 2. Kvartali tulemuste hooaeg –suurtest teeb algust, nii nagu ikka, Alcoa(AA). Olulisi makroandmeid täna tulemas ei ole, aga Alcoa tulemusi ja turu reaktsiooni nendele tasub küll jälgida.
UBS-i 'take' IBM-i kohta:
UBS vähendas oma hinnasihti IBM-il(IBM). Vana siht oli $90, uueks on $82. UBS väidab, et hiljutine vähene avalikult teatavaks tehtud tehingute arv vihjavad oodatust väiksemale broneeringute arvule. UBS ootab nüüd 2. Kvartaliks tehinguid väärtuses $10 miljardit varasema $12 kuni $13 miljardi pealt. Samuti vähendati kogu 2006. Aasta oodatavat kasumit aktsia kohta, mis on nüüd $5.75.
Ja lõpetuseks väike väljavõte Briefingust, kus selgub, et Jaapan arutleb selle üle, kas ennetav rünnak Põhja-Korea raketibaaside pihta oleks Jaapani konstitutsiooniga kooskõlas või mitte:
The AP reports that Japan said Monday it was considering whether a pre-emptive strike on the North's missile bases would violate its constitution, signaling a hardening stance ahead of a possible U.N. Security Council vote on Tokyo's proposal for sanctions against the regime. "If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack ... there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion," Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said. "There is no mistake that the missile launch ... is a threat to Japan and the region. It is only natural for Japan to take measures of risk management against such a threat." -
Aga kellele meeldib ka vähemtähtsal makrol siiski silma peal hoida, siis hulgimüügi varud oodatust suuremad:
Wholesale Inventories +0.8% vs +0.5% consensus -
Lähematel minutitel on oodata tarbijakrediitide numbri avaldamist, oodatakse 3,2 miljardi dollari suurust kasvu.
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Tegelik suurenemine 4,4 miljardit. Turul esialgu reaktsioon puudub.
