Börsipäev 27.-28. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Augusti kestvuskaupade numbrid, mis kell 8.30 USA idaranniku aja järgi välja tulid, olid investoritele negatiivseks üllatuseks. Kestvuskaupade tellimused vähenesid –0.5%, kuigi oodati +0.4%-list tõusu. Kui tellimustest jätta välja transport, mis annab parema pildi äri kapitali investeeringute kohta, saame tulemuseks koguni –2.0% tellimuste languse, mis on samuti turule negatiivseks üllatuseks.
Turg, mis enne statistika avaldamist oli nulli lähedal, on nüüdseks juba sügavasse miinusesse langenud.
Ülespoole avanevad:
DIVX +7.8% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money), JBL +7.2% (reports Q4 revs), FBP +8.9% (completes restatements), AQR +8% (to merge with Jazz Semi), DBRN +6.4% (reports JulQ; beats by $0.04), APTM +9.2%, AEHR +4.8% (reports Q1), ASMI +4% (will consider plan to break up the co -- FT), CRWN +3.5%, ACGY +3.4%, AAUK +3% (traded higher in European trading), FDRY +2.9% (Baird upgrade), FNSR +2.7% (Citigroup initiates with Buy), OPWV +2.2% (extends recent momentum, +50% in 2 months), INTC +1% (judge dismisses part of AMD case against Intel - Reuters), SNDK +1% (positive Citigroup comments).
Allapoole avanevad:
RHAT -19% (reports AugQ, multiple downgrades), BE -14% (guides lower; downgrades from Needham and Stifel), WOR -7.5% (reports AugQ), ACOR -5.9% (profit taking after 300% move this week), PLXS -4.2%, PAYX -3.2% (reports AugQ), ACET -3.2% (co says will take longer than initally expected for USDA test data), RACK -2.9% (Matrix downgrades to Sell), ENCY -2.5% (class action lawsuit filed), MLNM -2.4% (JMP Sec downgrade), CECO -2.1% (Lehman downgrade), OVTI -2.1%, BLUD -1.8%.
McDonals’s(MCD) teatas, et tõstab oma senist dividendi ligi 50% ehk varasema $0.67 pealt $1.00 peale. Sel moel makstakse igal aastal investoritele dividendidena välja ca $1.2 miljardit. MCD aktsia kaupleb viimase 5 aasta kõrgeimal tasemel ning on ka eelturul protsendijagu plussis.
Eilne naftaga seotud aktisate tõus tundub ka täna lisa saamas. Nii Citigroup kui ka Bank of America jagasid täna nafta rafineerimisega seotud ettevõtetele ohtralt upgrade’e. BofA andis ostusoovituse VLO-le ja TSO-le. Citi tõstis MRO, VLO ja SUN-i soovituse ‘hoia’ pealt ‘osta’ peale. Kindlus 2007. aasta kasumite osas, 25%-line langus rafineerimisega seotud ettevõtete aktsiaväärtuses niivõrd lühikese aja jooksul ning lähenev talv loovad BofA arvates hea võimaluse antud aktsiate ostuks.
Taas on kerkinud küsimus, kas OPEC on midagi praeguste nafta hindadega ette võtmas. Eile ütles Dakour OPECist, et midagi tuleb ette võtta, et hindu stabiliseerida. Nagu ikka reeglina kolmapäeviti kell 10.30 tuleb nafta varude raport ka täna. -
Eile tuli metallitöötleja WOR välja oma tulemustega, mis jäid ootustele alla. Aktsia 6% miinuses ning kaasa toonud ka sektori teised esindajad. Meeldis call, mis ütleb suht palju olukorra kohta: Co gives outlook saying, demand in two of Worthington's key end markets, commercial construction (especially office buildings) and automotive, may continue to soften. Recent announcements of production cuts by General Motors, Ford and Chrysler will create a more challenging environment for the Steel Processing segment. Uncertainty regarding the economy and interest rates, coupled with relatively high material prices, has contributed to delays in planned commercial construction starts by cstomers of the Metal Framing segment. Other end markets served by the Pressure Cylinders segment and certain of the company's joint ventures continue to be strong and stable.
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Uute majade müük 1,050 vs 1,040
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Toornafta varud vähenesid -0.1 miljonit barrelit - keskmiselt oodati -1.7 miljoni barreli vähenemist. Mootorkütuse varud tõusid 6.3 miljoni barreli võrra - väga tugevalt üle ootuste.
Distilleeritud kütused tõusid 2.6 miljonit barrelit, mis vastab ka ootustele.
Nafta raport pettumuseks ja kiire allamüük oli kerge tulema, seda enam, et paljud ettevõtted alustasid gapiga üles. -
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) ütleb, et sulgeb ebaökonoomiliste hindade tõttu tehaseid..
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Antud juhul on tegu siis tootmise ajutise sulgemisega, kuna hinnad on langenud niivõrd madalale, et juhtkond ei pea enam kasulikuks/kasumlikuks tootmist jätkata. Mida tasub aga siinkohal silmas pidada? Miks ei järgnenud antud teatele aktsia langust? Vastus siis järgmine:
Ettevõtte kogutoodangust(net oil and natural gas) suletakse kokku 6%. Ettevõttel ja selle juhtkonnal eesotas Aubrey McClendoniga on minu silmis aga siiski väga hea maine - eelmise sügise kõrgete hindade ajal müüdi väga suur kogus oma tulevasest toodangust ette ära, millega vähendati tohutult turu riske. Näiteks 2006. aasta teise poolaasta toodetavast gaasist oli ette ära müüdud 92% hinnaga $9.24; 2007. aasta kogutoodangust on ette ära müüdud ca 80% hinnaga $9.92 ja 2008. aasta toodangust ca 60% keskmise NYMEX hinnaga $9.44.
Vaadates praegu NYMEXi gaasihindu näeme sealt numbrit, mis jääb allapoole $4.30...Seetõttu suletigi tootmisest vaid see osa, mis 2006. aasta teisel poolel polnud varem ette ära müüdud. Kui nüüd aga hakata mõtlema teiste gaasi ettevõtete peale, kes niivõrd suurtes kogustes pole gaasi ettemüümisele varem panustanud, tuleb tunnistada, et paljudel on n-ö peenike pihus. Ja seda eriti väikeettevõtete seisukohast, mille all võib varsti ka gaasi pakkumine oluliselt kannatada. -
Realmoney.com "Jutlustaja" Shark räägib suht intrigeerivalt üleliigsest optimismist turul:
I'm about ready to change the channel from CNBC to Jerry Springer, as I search for greater intellectual insight, useful information and less sensationalism. Seriously though, the focus on the new high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on CNBC is beyond silly. It simply fans the flames of emotions. It is like a daylong infomercial, lacking the class, and far more dangerous than hair in a can or a ginzu knife.
This is exactly the sort of emotionalism that ultimately led to so much pain for retail investors when the bubble broke in 2000. They were so revved up and convinced by the media that we were going to go straight up because we were at highs that they simply wanted to be in.
Frankly, I'm embarrassed and disgusted as a financial professional to watch this display. Even if the market does continue higher from this point, it is irresponsible to build it up to such a degree. What exactly happens once the DJIA does hit a high? Is there no longer any reason to worry about the market? Should we be buying more and more aggressively as this monumental news builds?
The market continues to act extremely well, but unless you are hypnotized by CNBC, it is a tough chase at this point to put more capital to work. As I said earlier, stick to the charts and don't let the emotions out there unduly influence you. As good as things look today, they can look just as bad next week. Stay disciplined.
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Täna kirjutab WSJ tõusvatest terasevarudest, mis läheb kokku eelmise WOR kommentaariga:
Inventories of steel have been piling up in customer warehouses in the U.S., creating worries of a glut and downward pressure on prices.The rising supplies come as U.S. auto makers are cutting back domestic production, and could be a sign of weakness in some other parts of the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Service centers, which buy 30% of the steel sold in the U.S. and resell it to manufacturers, report that inventories are at the highest level since January 2005, with 15.9 million tons on hand, or 3.1 months of supply in August. That is down from 3.4 months of supply in July, but up from the 2.7-month supply in August 2005, according to the Metal Service Center Institute, based near Chicago.
Meanwhile, year-to-date steel imports into the U.S. are 40% higher than a year earlier, as steel makers elsewhere seek out higher U.S. prices. With 30 million tons imported through August, imports are on pace to exceed the record 41.5 million tons in 1998. Much of the imported steel is coming from China, which has increased production by double-digit percentages. Some analysts suggest some of the world's largest steel companies might curb production to reduce oversupply risks and prevent volatile pricing swings. Several steelmakers made a similar move, successfully, in 2005 as a glut developed. In that case, steel prices fell steadily for 10 months but didn't crash as they have in previous cycles.
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Other analysts said they believe the industry has started factoring in the oversupply and suggest demand will continue to buoy steel prices and profits for the rest of the year. Steel customers say large producers such as U.S. Steel Corp. are maintaining earlier announced price increases, but smaller companies such as AK Steel Holding Corp. and Algoma Steel Inc. are underselling them at times. The three companies declined to comment."There is just a lot of inventory around," said Brian Robbins, chief executive of Mid-West Materials Inc. "People think it may take the whole fourth quarter to burn through this softness period."
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Oliver, varem avaldasite Rev Shark-i kommentaari iga börsipäeva alguses, kuid mingil põhjusel kadusid need ära. Kas seda kommet oleks võimalik taastada?
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Põhjuseks oli vist laiskus :) Aga saame taastada.
Not Joining This Stock Party
9/28/2006 9:12 AM EDT
By Rev Shark
"But far more numerous was the herd of such,
Who think too little, and who talk too much."
-- John Dryden, English Poet, 1631-1700
The thundering herd continues its charge to a new high in the DJIA and the news media is doing a nice job of keeping the excitement level high. It is going to be a relief just to hit the new high so we don't have to keep hearing about it -- which makes me wonder if we will expreience a letdown after the big event when folks realize that it doesn't really change anything.
There is much more going on out there than just the DJIA and if you follow the herd -- which is obsessed with it -- the great liklihood is that you will eventually suffer. The herd is very powerful when it is on the run but it's just plain stupid to fight it.
However, sooner or later things always end ugly. The key is to ride it when it is in control and not worry too much about its intellectual capabilities. However, it is extremely important to have an exit plan in mind. The plunge is usually very fast and ugly so if you are along for the ride, make sure you appreciate that you are riding on the back of a very powerful beast that has limited intellectual capacity and does not shift direction easily.
I've been receiving a fair amout of comments from folks who are puzzled by my lack of love for the market recently. There really is nothing I enjoy more than riding, with wild abandon, on the back of a rip-snorting bull, but there's one big problem: I simply can't find the sort of stocks and charts that I tend to buy in a good market. I have always played the high-beta momentum stocks when the marekt is hot but for some reason they have not attracted much interest as the indices roar higher. It is usually the stodgy giants that have been driving the action. Small-caps, IBD 100 type stocks and the usual momentum favorites have been moribund while General Electric and AT&T attract buyers. Perhaps that is just a theme that I am missing out on but I have enough trouble buying extended small-caps; there is no chance I am going to buy an extended big-cap like Time Warner.
Unfortunately, with the new high on the DJIA within spitting distance, we are going to hear about that ad nauseam until we hit it or fall back down enough to take itout of play. I'm hoping we can hit the high just so we don't have to hear about it anymore but I really wonder what will happen to the market mood once we are at a new high and all the bells and whistles have gone off and nothing substantial has really changed.
We have a rather quiet start to the day. European markets continued their recent rally while Asia was mostly flat. Oil has continued to hold its bounce and will be interesting to watch. We have our work cut out for us. -
Tänud, Oliver.
Need Rev-i kommid on päris huvitavad ja kasulikud. Varem lugesin neid iga päev. -
Täna tuli ohtralt majandusstatistikat:
Deflaator (Chain Deflator) - lõplik +3.3% vs +3.3% konsensus(tegu inflatsiooni mõõtva võtme statistikaga)
Töötu abiraha nõuded (Initial Claims) 316 000 vs 315 000 konsensus
2. kvartali SKP lõplik +2.6% vs +2.9% consensus
Eriti suuri üllatusi ei olnud - veidi üllatav ehk 2. kvartali lõpliku SKP näit, mis jäi oodatud 2.9%-le alla, kuid kuna tegu siiski n-ö vana infoga, ei ole see kaupelmisele väga suurt mõju hetkel avaldanud ning turg kauplemas nulli lähedal.
Ülespoole avanevad:
ALGN +71% (settles litigation with OrthoClear), SGMO +16% (positive clinical data against HIV), RECN +13% (reports AugQ; Baird upgrade), ENER +14% (improves its corporate goveranance structure; increase buyback authorization to 100 mln from 50 mln; eliminates its "Class A and B" stock structure; increases its independent directors from 4 to 6), EPM +15% (reports Q4), TALK +9.4% (extends momentum), NABI +8.8% (to explore strategic alternatives), CROX +4.9% (to be added to S&P SmallCap 600 Index), ICON +4% (extends license deal with Sears), ACOR +3.8% (bounces after 18% drop yesterday; stock has been volatile all week), GEMP +3.6%, AN +2.6% (Bear Stearns upgrade), GKIS +1% (PPC to begin tender offer for GKIS)... Under $3: THLD +14% (cancer drug gets orphan status).
Allapoole avanevad:
NVTL -17% (Nokia and Intel announce partnership to give notebook computers cellular connection; seen as a negative for modem makers), SWIR -16% (same), EXPE -4.9%, IMCL -3.1% (extends yesterday's late sell-off on AMGN news; FBR reits Underperform), FMCN -3.1% (founder/CEO to pledge 2 mln ADS; provides guidance), FIF -3.6% (reports Q4), EGLT -2.9% (prices offering), JBL -2.7% (Goldman downgrade), ADSK -2.6%, NVDA -2.6% (ThinkEquity downgrade), NTES -2.3% (Credit Suisse downgrade), LNC -1.6% (Credit Suisse downgrade), TWX -1% (JP Morgan downgrade)... Under $3: TVIA -55% (lowers rev guidance).
Microsoft teatas, et kavatseb oma digitaalse meediapleieri ‘Zune’ tuua USAs turule selle aasta 14. novembril. Jaehinnaks saab olema $244.99. Ajastus on tähtis, sest jõuluhooaeg mängib toote edus tähtsat rolli.
Briefingu all kommenteeritakse täna ka eilset Chesapeake Energy(CHK) otsust osa tootmisest sulgeda ning leitakse, et see võib kaasa tuua ka teiste ettevõtete poolt toodangu vähendamise, vältimaks nii madalate hindadega müümise. Kurikuulsa energiafondi Amaranth-i poolt müüki pandud maagaasi Märtsi/Aprilli lepingud, mis JP Morgan üle ostis, on samuti näitamas hinnalanguse vähenemist, mis omakorda võib vihjata sellele, et maagaasi puhul on jõutud lühiajalise põhjani. -
Maagaasi varud(raport tuleb reeglina neljapeval kell 10.30 USA aja järgi) tõusid +77bcf-i. Analüütikute arvamused kõikusid vahemikus +65 kuni +99 ning keskmine oli +85, mistõttu varude tõus oli oodatust veidi väiksem.
Eelmise aasta samal perioodil tõusid gaasi varud +53 bcf-i võrra ning 5-aasta keskmine on +68. Nüüdseks on neljal järjestikusel nädalal gaasi varud eelmise aasta sama numbri üle löönud.
Esmane reaktsioon on energias ülesse poole. -
RIMM eilsed prognoosid olid päris tublid: issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.88-0.95 vs. $0.77 consensus; sees Q3 revs of $780-820 mln vs. $700.23 mln consensus. Upgrade ja kliendibaasikasv draiveriks(sub adds 800k vs 709k street expectation). Huvitav, kas Palmi uued tooted lähevad sama hästi edaspidi peale?
Enne tulemusi tuli analüütikutelt päris palju häid kommentaare ning usun, et täna kiidetakse firmat veelgi. Järelturul 20% plussis. Pullid praegu turul küll ülekaalus, kuid aktsia on viimastel kuudel teinud juba järsu tõusu. Võimalik, et tullakse valuatsiooni kritiseerima (marginaale ja ASP), mis võib pakkuda ka karudele võimaluse. Lisaks: announces voluntary review of historical stock option grants.
Järelturul aga pilt päris kena:
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Rimmi 1 aasta volatiilsuse graafik on järgmine:
Rimmi volatiilsus andis päris hea võimaluse straddle tegijatele. CBOE volatiilsuse indeks VIX on kolme kuuga kukkunud kaks korda(24%>12%), mis annab tunduvalt parema stardipositsiooni selleks majandustulemuste hooajaks straddle kasutamiseks.
