Börsipäev 2.-3. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Wal-Mart(WMT) teatas, et nende Septembri müüginumbrid olid eelmise aastaga võrreldes 1.8% paremad. Arvestades aga hiljutist WMT aktsia tugevat tõusu ning ettevõtte poolt kostnud positiivseid sõnavõtte, oodati, et müügi kasv jääb varem välja pakutud vahemiku 1% kuni 3% ülemisse äärde. Pettumus on kaasa toonud enam kui punktise languse WMT aktsias.
Turg alustab täna pisut negatiivses territooriumis.
Ülespoole avanevad:
MYOG +48% (to be acquired by GILD), HET +13% (to be acquired by buyout firms - WSJ), RICK +6% (extends Friday's 7% move), RBAK +5% (Matrix upgrade), FLS +3.8% (co makes positive comments on orders; approves share buyback; Bear Stearns upgrade), UHCP +11%, PRST +3.7% (Matrix upgrade; Needham reits Buy rating following Friday's 13.5% sell-off), NVTL +3.5% (recovers a bit following last week's sell-off), BMRN +3.4% (Baird upgrade), NEOL +3.1% (co announced late Friday that Chairman bought 20K shares), PETM +2.6% (mentioned positively in Barron's), DIVX +2.2% (extends last week's rally), BCRX +1.8% (same)... Under $3: SNTO +2.4%.
Allapoole avanevad:
OPMR -36% (new internet gambling law seen as negative; Soleil downgrade), CRYP -27% (new internet gambling law seen as negative), LCAV -21% (guides lower; broker downgrade), GIGM -12% (new internet gambling law seen as negative), FDC -45% (completes spin-off of Western Union), TRAC -10.7%, GILD -5.6% (to acquire MYOG), ACOR -3.2% (profit taking after big move last week), ENCY -2.3% (class action lawsuits filed), AAPL -2.1% (Citigroup downgrade), JKHY -2%.
Uudis küll veidi vana, kuid kuna täpsed numbrid reedel veel puudusid, toon selle siia ära. Alates 1. oktoobrist vähendas Nigeeria omapoolset nafta toodangut 120 000 barreli võrra päevas ning Venetsueela 50 000 barreli võrra päevas.
Ametlikult on Venetsueelale OPEC andnud kvoodi toota kuni 3.2 miljonit barrelit naftat päevas, kuid vastavalt EIA andmetele oli Venetsueela keskmiseks nafta tootluseks augustikuus 2.53 miljonit barrelit. Venetsueela küll omalt poolt väidab, et keskmiselt riik ka selle kvoodi täidab, kuid üldsus on viimasel ajal hakanud kahtlema selles, süüdistades energiarajatistesse suunatud investeeringute vähesust ja ekspertide puudust.
170 000 barrelit moodustab maailma keskmisest naftanõudlusest siiski vaid ca 0,2%, mistõttu ei ole selle teate peale ka mingit elevust üles näidatud. Samas, ka Iraan on nüüdseks teatanud, et kui OPEC soovib vastu võtta mingit olulist pakkumise vähendamist, siis on riik sellega igati nõus, sest hinnad on nüüdseks nende arvates juba liiga madalad. -
Some Got Left Behind in Market's Run
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/2/2006 9:06 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"The secret to a rich life is to have more beginnings than endings." -- David Weinbaum
One of the great things about the stock market is that you can have a fresh start any time you like. Unless you are big fund with limited liquidity, it is quite easy to dump your accumulated baggage and look at the market with fresh eyes. Even if you don't go completely to cash, the start of a new quarter is often the time we mentally wipe the slate clean and begin the battle anew.
New beginnings are especially empowering if we use them to let go of our accumulated hopes, desires and biases. One of the biggest challenges we face is not letting our existing positions drive our thinking. Obviously, if we are massively long or heavily short we have built those positions because we believe the market is headed in a certain direction. We are inclined to constantly seek out information that supports our views and to diminish anything that is contrary to it. Although we know we should stay objective it is extremely difficult to be flexible and open-minded when we are already invested in a certain view of the market both monetarily and emotionally.
As we start the fourth quarter, it is a little easier to forgot what our returns might be up to this point. The quarter is done and nothing can change what happened. That gives us the freedom to formulate new theories, thinking and approaches by which we will produce better results into the end of the year.
During this past quarter I probably heard more complaints about underperformance than ever before. I tend to associate more with trend followers, momentum players and small-cap afficondos than investors in big caps stocks, so it isn't that surprising. The third-quarter advance was a narrow one driven primarily by the biggest stocks in the market. Momentum players like Louis Navellier, who is about 16% off his May peak, and small-cap players like Jim Oberweis, who is down 15.6% year to date, are much more representative of the great bulk of individual traders that I hear from.
The third quarter was not an easy one but unfortunately the media's cheerleading and the focus on indices that are capitalization-weighted make many feel they have missed out on a big party when in truth there was no party in their neighborhood.
But that is behind us now and we need to look ahead to the fourth quarter. The first question that comes to mind is whether big-caps will continue to be the main upside driving force. Some of them have had some big moves already so it is tough to imagine they can keep going without some sort of rest.
Let's keep an open mind and not be too quick to formulate theories as to how the fourth quarter will play out. The one thing I do know for sure is that it will offer us some good opportunities as long as we aren't carrying too much baggage as we start the trip.
We are off to a shaky start this morning. Asian markets were up nicely on an increase in confidence while the action in Europe was more sedate. Oils is down, gold up and we have some red on the screens. -
Euroopa andis hommikuse tugevuse mõnusalt käest ning usa futuurid on samuti miinusesse pööranud. Täna tuli mitmeid kommentaare retailerite kohta. Wal-Marti (WMT) septembri müük tõusis 1.8% võrreldes aastatagusega. Nendelt hinnatasemetelt jääb seda minu arvates väheks. Eelturul on stock ka kaheprotsendilises miinuses. WMT annab indikatsiooni kogu retail rektorilening paljud firmad sõltuvad tarnelepingute kaudu otsesel WMT tegevusest - näiteks peaks PG, SPC, PYX, CLX, CHTT käbest vastavalt ca 16%, 18%, 28%, 27%, 36% moodustama just WMT. Lisaks kommenteerib Wachovia septembri SSSi:
Wachovia says connecting the data points indicates underperformance at lower income, urban focused retailers. For FDO, firm recently revised their Sept expectation to +2% from +3-5%. Firm believes those stores that benefited from post hurricane replenishment sales are facing a challenging comparison this year. Firm notes that Sept SSS at WMT were slightly lower than expected and other retailers have indicated softness urban markets. Firm recently traveled with the mgmt of HIBB. Firm believes that HIBB has recently experienced softness in NBA apparel, basketball shoes and urban brands, and urban mall stores are underperforming non-urban mall stores. Firm believes that DG could continue to underperform. Firm believes that Sept SSS may be closer to the bottom end of their projected range of +2-4%. Firm says fabric retailer's underperformance likely to continue, and believes that both HKF and JAS are likely to post negative SSS in Sept. For HKF, firm projects SSS decline in the 4-6% range vs. (6.3%) and consensus of (2.5%). For JAS, firm projects a SSS decline in the 4-6% range vs. 0.2% last year and consensus of (5%). Firm projects negative SSS for both PIR and TUES.
Samuti Bofa WMT teemadel:
BofA believes WMT may settle back after its rally and 1.8% Sept comp on Saturday, although firm had hoped for better. Firm says this was at the middle of their range of 1% to 3%. Firm anticipated the comp would be at the high end of the range. With lower gas prices and Target's (TGT) mid-Sept optimism, firm had hoped for better results. As is the case with the Saturday release, firm says the co gave no additional information, just the combined comp. On a 2-year basis, firm says the WMT comp is 4.7% a deceleration from recent months. Firm believes that remodels, hurricanes, and out-of-stocks could have affected the comp in Sept, but firm will wait for more detail on Thursday. In general, firm believes broadline/hardline retail moderated in late Sept from its strong pace earlier in the month. WMT and Family Dollar (FDO) on Friday indicate the low-end consumer continues to struggle. After the recent rally in WMT's stock, firm believes they could see the shares pull back a bit after the relatively disappointing comp ..
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Lisasin Pro alla ka ühe uue investeerimisidee
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naftafutuur hakkab lähenema kolmeprotsendilise miinuseni. Hetkel on vähemalt OIH sellele kukkumisele lahjalt reageerinud, BHI isegi väikeses plussis.
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õpime ka vahepeal:)
milline oleks eestikeelne vaste quarter-on-quarter? -
To yanek,
Quarter-on-quarter(q-o-q) võrdlus tähendab põhimõtteliselt lihtsalt seda, et kvartalit võrreldakse eelmise kvartaliga. Ehk et kui teatatakse 2006. aasta 3. kvartali tulemused ja seal on selline võrdlus sees, siis võrreldakse tulemusi 2006. aasta 2. kvartaliga.
Year-over-year(y-o-y) võrdlus tähendab seda, et võrreldakse antud kvartalit(nt 3. kvartal 2006. a) eelmise aasta sama kvartaliga(ehk siis 3. kvartal 2005.a). -
aga kuidas tõlkida seda väljendit
kvartali baasil ? -
tõlkidagi "eelmise kvartaliga võrreldes" ?
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Täna mitmeid kommentaare majadeehitajate suunas:
BofA downgrades Dow Chemical (DOW 38.78) to Neutral from Buy... BofA downgrades WCI Communities (WCI 17.28) to Neutral from Buy... BofA downgrades Pulte Homes (PHM 32.45) to Sell from Neutral... BofA downgrades DR Horton (DHI 24.46) to Neutral from Buy
Credit Suisse downgrades DR Horton (DHI 24.46) to Neutral from Outperform with a $23 tgt after analyzing the land strategies of all the builders in their coverage universe, the firm says it is clear that DHI's double-digit growth strategy resulted in above average land purchases later in the cycle. The firm says given DHI's appetite for land in recent years, they view greater option write-off and impairment risk on a relative basis, as land prices are likely to pull back to at least to 2003 levels in many markets
Lisaks nii mõnedki negatiivsed kommentaarid energiasektori suunas. Siiani ei ole tahtnud paljud analüütikud alla anda! Usun, et reitingulangetamised on see, mida energiasektor vajab.
Merrill downgrades the Energy Sector to Underweight...
Lehman downgrades the Oil and Gas Sector to Negative..
JP Morgan upgrades Baker Hughes (BHI 67.52), Cameron Intl (CAM 47.42), and FMC Tech (FTI 52.50) to Overweight from Neutral. Downgrades: JP Morgan downgrades Ensco Intl (ESV 41.65) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV 56.56) to Neutral from Overweight...JP Morgan downgrades Diamond Offshore (DO 68.51), Globalsantafe (GSF 47.74) and Transocean (RIG 71.10) to Underweight from Neutral
Eile õhtul teatas MRVL, et kolmanda kvartali käive tuleb madalam kui prognoositud. Aktsiad kukkusid järelturul rohkem kui 15%. Täpsemalt:
Co announces 3Q07 revs will be down approx 10% from the $574.0 mln of net rev reported for 2Q07 (which calculates to approx $517 mln), vs. consenus of $588.2 mln. The anticipated decline in net rev is largely due to lower than expected demand from a number of the co's hard disk drive customers. The co believes the shortfall of demand is primarily due to a combination of weaker than normal seasonal shipments in the personal computer market as well as excess inventory held by some of its significant storage customers.
Uudise peale tulid kohe alla ka BRCM, WDC, STX, KOMG. Kuigi tegemist ei ole üllatava nõrkusega sektoris, ei saa uudiseid kindlasti ka headeks pidada - eriti just MRVLi kliendi WDC jaoks (...excess inventory held by some of its significant storage customers). Siiski on varasemad hoiatused (näite KOMG poolt) juba turu kohta palju signaale andnud ning seega suur osa negatiivsusest aktsiatesse sisse arvestatud. STX, mis pigem on oma turupositsiooni kindlustanud, võib pakkuda võimalust põrkele mängimiseks $22 piirkonnast (lisaks lamab 200 päeva EMA 22.16 peal, mida võivad tulla jahtima tehnilised kauplejad, et sealt põrkevõimalust otsida).
Merrill Lynch kommenteerib positiivselt STJ. Silma hakkas upgrade kuna kommenteeritakse turuosa suurenemist BSX arvelt.Kokkuvõttes on selline areng pigem positiivne Pro ostusoovitusele soovitusele GB.
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Kuna Oliver on täna pikalt turu sündmustest juba kirjutanud, lisan vaid üles- ja allapoole avanejad. Kuna Merril on positiivsete kommentaaridega väljas STJ osas, siis tahaks kindlasti ära märkida asjaolu, et STJ-st ja südamestimulaatorite turust ja seal olevatest ettevõtetest kirjutasin 27. septembril artikli, kus üritasin üpriski lihtsalt ja arusaadavalt lahti kirjutada, mis seal valdkonnas toimub. Samuti sai öeldud, et ka Pro soovitus GB lõikab kokkuvõttes nõudluse suurenemisest otsest kasu. Need, kes artiklit veel lugenud ei ole, soovitan seda kindlasti teha -
https://www.lhv.ee/news/index.cfm?id=1042445.
Turg alustab täna selges miinuses.
Ülespoole avanevad:
SWKS +36% (affirms SepQ, guides FY07 above consensus; to exit baseband unit, job cuts; Credit Suisse upgrade, $9.50 tgt; Needham and CIBC both raise tgt prices to $9), LH +9.2% (wins UNH contract), ALTH +8.3% (receives FDA fast track designation), SPPI +6.2% (positive phase 2 data), GIGM +4.8% (co says it expects no impact from online gaming law), NAPS +4.4% (launches Japanese service), NAVR +4.2% (announces deal with OfficeMax), RFMD +4.1% (Credit Suisse upgrade), KSS +2.7% (strong Sep same store sales; guides higher), WAG +1.6% (strong Sep same store sales), PPCO +1.6%, RYAN +1.4% (settles shareholder lawsuit), AL +1.3% (announces large share repurchase program), BFAM +2% (to be added to S&P 600), UNFI +1.6%, ASML +1%.
Allapoole avanevad:
MRVL -14% (lowers rev guidance, multiple broker price tgt cuts), DGX -8.7% (loses UNH contract), CYTK -7.7% (disappointing clinical data), HLX -5.7% (guides lower), BRCM -3.4% (in sympathy with MRVL; also Amtech downgrades to Sell, $23 tgt), WDC -2.8% (in sympathy with MRVL), ALGN -3.2% (prices secondary offering), RIG -3% (JP Morgan downgrade), PBG -2.8% (reports AugQ in-line, but guides FY06 slight below consensus; also Deutsche downgrade), KOMG -2.8% (in sympathy with MRVL), DHI -2.5% (BofA and Credit Suisse downgrades), SYMC -2.5%, SEPR -2.4% (Goldman downgrade), NVDA -1.9% (Pac Growth downgrade), BOBJ -1.9% (announces acquisition), COP -1.8% (provides interim Q3 update), CRYP -1.7% (CIBC downgrade), ESV -1.6% (JP Morgan downgrade), COST -1.2% (BofA downgrade).
Briefingu väljavõte:
William Gray's Colorado State team forecasts 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes for '06 Atlantic season
GRAY'S COLORADO STATE TEAM SAYS NO MORE "MAJOR" HURRICANES OF CAT 3 OR ABOVE EXPECTED IN '06 - Reuters -
Beware the Pause That Confuses
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/3/2006 9:21 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"The notes I handle no better than many pianists. But the pauses between the notes -- ah, that is where the art resides."
-- Artur Schnabel, Austrian pianist
We started off the fourth quarter with a pause and now the question is whether the music we hear will be a jig or a dirge. The bulls will tell us we needed a healthy pause to work off the overbought conditions and to help consolidate the recent gains. The bears will tell us that a pause on the first day of a new quarter is an indication that the recent strength was mostly manipulation and therefore unsustainable, and that it will be a slippery slope to the downside from here.
I consciously try to avoid forming strong opinions about market direction. I want to stay open-minded and let the action in front of me be my guide. For a while now, that action has me a bit concerned. I simply don't like the quality of the long-side action in individual stocks and wonder if big-cap leadership is really a symptom of problems rather than a positive change in market character.
We will see how things play out but at the moment we are undergoing a pause and we need to figure out how we are going to deal with it. To a great degree that depends on your style. If you are a longer-term investor the weakness yesterday was barely a blip and you really shouldn't pay much attention to it at all.
For the more active trader the question is how quickly you jump in and take advantage of weakness. Do you aggressively buy dips now or do you hang back a bit and stay patient? Most market players make the mistake of being too aggressive too early. They have been hoping for some weakness so they can buy some stocks without having to chase them and they have a tendency to do so too soon. It makes sense to keep initial dip buying small and leave room to add as events play out. The idea isn't to buy the bottom tick but to buy when a stock has the best chance of putting together a sustained move.
Too many traders focus on catching the low and that tends to put them in stocks too early. If they focused more on catching a move they tend to be a little late because they wait for signs of some upside traction.
Even if the market does come back fairly fast it may be a good time to look hard at the short side. Stocks that are breaking key technical support will gain downside momentum quickly as the hot money shifts to stocks that have better technical health. The rotation that occurs when a bounce kicks in is often the catalyst for downside action in certain groups.
Two groups that I will be watching carefully are retail and restaurants. Both have acted well recently in part due to the theory that decreased gasoline prices will help boost consumer spending. It certainly makes sense but if we really are seeing an economic slowdown then there is likely to be some problems for the groups regardless of oil prices. With same-store sales coming up in a day or two and some weakness in retail giant WMT, they are important groups to watch.
We have a weak start this morning due in part to a warning from MRVL. Overseas markets are weak and oil and gold are down again. -
Reuters: a Turkish passenger plane has been hijacked
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DOW INDUSTRIALS REACHES INTRADAY HIGH OF 11,754.50
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Valero Energy Lowers 3rd-Quarter Earnings Expectations on Decline in Gasoline Margins. The company currently expects third-quarter earnings of $2.25 to $2.35 per share - Analysts polled by Thomson Financial currently expect the company to report, on average, earnings of $2.44 per share. It would also fall a few cents short of the current $2.38 per-share earnings expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call
The forecast would be the best third-quarter results ever posted by the San Antonio, Texas-based company. "Despite the recent weakness in gasoline margins, distillate margins and sour crude discounts remain very good," said Chief Executive Bill Klesse
