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  • Watch the Overconfidence

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/5/2006 9:11 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Overconfidence - Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure you could survive the odds beating you."

    -- Larry Kersten


    Yesterday we had a good old fashioned dirt-pawing, salvia dripping, rip-snorting bull rally. There was nothing hesitant or uncertain about the buying. It was bold and aggressive and it bolstered overconfidence in the market. Moves like yesterday generate excitement about the market and help draw in the folks who have been tentative and uncertain. They suddenly start worrying more about missing out, and their caution and focus on protecting capital starts to feel downright foolish.

    The big problem with days like yesterday is that they often lead to overconfidence. People start to believe that the market is going to go straight up from here for months on end simply because of the energetic buying. The rally very well may continue for a while but it will come to an end and the vast majority will be surprised and unprepared when it does.

    The key to success isn't trying to anticipate when a rally might end but to not be overconfident about it along the way. Make sure you lock in some gains and maintain a disciplined approach. Profits can disappear in the blink of an eye when things turn. Few things are more dispiriting than having hard-won profits suddenly evaporate and finding yourself back where you started.

    Combat overconfidence by taking some partial profits into strength. When others are greedy for more and setting themselves up for disappointment you will increase the odds of ultimate success by keeping emotions in place and adopting a methodical money management scheme.

    If you are underinvested and don't have a lot of recent gains to protect, my advice is much the same: Don't suddenly start feeling overconfident that the market is going to continue to run. Make a few small moves here and there but don't suddenly throw your idle cash into the market because you are afraid you will miss out. Opportunities will come and a good market will provide a steady supply of them in the weeks and months ahead. Just keep in mind that the folks who ultimately end up losing are those that become increasingly confident as a move becomes extended.

    We have a flat start to the day. Crude oil is trading up on a cut in production by OPEC, which is putting a little downside pressure on things but same-store retails sales are rolling in and there are some very strong results. Overseas markets took their cue from Wall Street and were feisty overnight.

    I expect to see aggressive dip buying by those who missed out on yesterday's run. The market is unlikely to roll over quickly because of the supply of folks who are anxious to put cash to work at lower prices. They will keep things propped up for a while.


    Gapping Down

    SNSA -5.9% (reports Q3 revs rise 3.6% to $398 mln, no estimates; gives outlook)... ARRS -1.6% (downgraded at Cowen)... GPRO -1.3% (Piper comments on need for post-marketing study on Procleix)... WTSLA -1.3% (comp stores below expectations)... COST -1.2% (comps below expectations)... AAPL -1.1% (statement on internal options investigation).

    Gapping Up

    GNVC +45% (Announces New $52 Million Contract with NIH/NIAID Vaccine Research Center to Support HIV Vaccine Production)... CRIS +24.4% (announces Genentech filing of Investigational New Drug application for systemic administration of a hedgehog antagonist)... TRMS +10.8% (data from HIV study)... MTRX +7.9% (announces the appointment of Michael Bradley as President and CEO)... TASR +5.8% (receives several orders for Taser X26 devices, sees Q3 revs of approx $18 mln)... ASCA +4.5% (increases Q3 gudiance)... SIMG +4.1% (initiated with a Buy at AmTech)... TJX +3.2% (reports comps, raises guidance)... CAI +2.4% (wins $1.9 bln contract)... OSUR +2.4% (announces promotions of Ronald Spair to COO)... HBC +2.3% (WSJ story)... LTD +1.5% (comp store sales)... CHS +1.2% (comp store sales)... WYE +1.2% (raises Y06 EPS guidance)... AEOS +1.0% (reports Sep comps).


  • Bofa kommentaar retailerite SSS kohta on väga asjakohane. Suht hea septembrikuine müügistatistika tuli välja, kuid ootused olid kõrged.

    Sept retail sales extremely strong in general; remember expectations were high - BofA

    BofA say as widely anticipated, a number of positive factors, including late back-to-school demand, cool weather, hurricane comparisons and solid trends at a number of retailers translated into very strong Sep numbers across many of the names. Firm says although the majority of cos posted very robust numbers, a handful of laggards failed to turn the positive Sept catalysts into a strong number and these stand out in heightened contrast. Firm would include here DDS, GPS (albeit slightly improved), HOTT and NWY, who were all lackluster in an otherwise huge month. Firm fully expects that the cool Sept weather borrowed a bit from Oct and therefore think Oct trends should see a deceleration from these high levels. Firm continues to focus on early cycle/execution stories: ARO, FD, GPS, HOTT, KSS, LTD, KSK, TJX, and URBN
  • BOOM tundub pakkuvat võimalust lühiajaliselt pikaks minna
  • stop 28.5-28.8
    target võiks olla 32-34 kandis

    cramerilt buy
    hea sisenemine pikkadele
  • U nädal tagasi päevapiltides sooviatud CREE täna 5% üleval.
    LED industry leaders Cree, Inc. and Lite-On Technology Corporation today announced a licensing arrangement that will enhance both companies' ability to aggressively develop and market white LED-based products for backlighting laptop computer displays.
  • Viimase aja tähelepanu LED tehnoloogiale võib speedy promotud EMA-le ka natuke tähelepanu tõmmata
  • Tund aega vana uudis, aga...

    14:00 OPEC President says does not want emergency meeting unless group ready to make substantial oil supply cut - Reuters

    14:06 OPEC's Daukoru says Saudis, Libya, Algeria, may cut output, says no formal agreement exists to cut output- Bloomberg

    Tundub, et tasapisi on OPECi masinavärk ka liikuma hakkamas. Omaette küsimus on muidugi see, kui suur see 'substantial cut' ikkagi olla võiks.
  • tegelt on tegemist OLED ehk Organic-LED tehnoloogiaga (EMA;PANL)
    ja P-OLED ehk Polymer-OLED (OLED)

    OLED tehnoloogia on viimase paari aasta jooksul jõudsalt arenenud ning jõudnud faasi kus on võimalik reaalselt tarbitavaid tooteid turule müüa ning nende toodete järele on tekkimas ka nõudlus.

    EMA keskendub near-eye aplication toodetele
    OLED toodab displaysid mobiilidele, kaameratele, pleieritele jne.
    PANL toodab sama mis OLED, kuid veel ka läbipaistvaid displaysid, nt autode esiklaasidele kuvatav info jm.

    ma ausalt rohkem ei teagi hetkel selle tehnoloogiaga tegelevaid ettevõtteid
    äkki keegi leiab mõne veel
  • Noteerituid väga ei olegi rohkem. EK peaks ka tegelema, aga ta ei ole pure play.

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