Börsipäev 11. oktoober
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Merrill Lynch downgrades LG.Phillips LCD (LPL 15.12) to Neutral from Buy
Citigroup downgrades Freescale Semiconductor (FSL 38.29) to Hold from Buy
JMP Securities downgrades Broadcom (BRCM 28.80) to Underperform from Market Perform and $23 tgt, based on potentially cautious guidance for the December quarter while channel checks with broadband DSL and cable equipment customers indicate slowing demand and excess inventory levels in Europe and Asia
Merrill upgrades Allegheny Tech (ATI 69.70) to Buy from Neutral
Friedman Billings lowers their tgt on AA to $22 from $25 and continue to have a cautious view on the aluminum producers following AA's earnings miss yesterday after the close. In addition to firm's cautious outlook on the aluminum space, which muted firm's enthusiasm for the co's upstream business, yesterday's results also highlight that the downstream business is suffering from weaker sales to the residential construction and automotive sectors, further dampening the outlook for the integrated aluminum producers. Firm believes greater than expected seasonal slowdown, unplanned mill outages, and weakening sales to the residential construction and automotive sectors were the key reasons for the earnings miss.
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Earnings Will Have Traders Facing Reality
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/11/2006 8:55 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"Life is so constructed, that the event does not, cannot, will not, match the expectation."
-- Jane Eyre by Charlotte Bronte, 1816-1855
The primary force that drives the market is expectations. If investors expect good news that will drive stocks higher, they buy. If they expect negative news that will pressure prices they sell. What keeps things very interesting is that investors' expectations seldom turn out to match reality. Investors are invariably too positive or too negative.
Typically what happens is that investors start to develop a certain set of expectations about something like inflation, interest rates, economic growth, earnings, international events and so on. There may be some pertinent news or just many little things that incubate the nascent feelings. Expectations start to grow in a small area of the market and then, if conditions are right, it begins to spread quickly. News come along that supports the emerging opinion and then stocks start to act better as confidence grows that indeed this optimism is warranted.
Eventually expectations take on a life of their own and almost always go far beyond what is realistic and reasonable. It simply is the nature of human beings in a market environment to extrapolate inaccurately. The cycle of higher prices and reinforcing news feeds on itself and does not stop simply because some are worried that we have gone to far.
The cycle of ever expanding expectations and stock prices usually comes to an end only after some catalyst that forces investors to confront the level of expectations. It is quite easy to expect a great economy or great earnings when there is no factual information to hold expectations in check. It is only where there is hard news that we are forced to confront reality and even then market players often will ignore facts that conflict with strongly held beliefs in a steadily trending market.
Earnings season is often one of these catalysts that causes investors to confront the reasonableness of their expectations. There is no arguing with the numbers and if expectations are too high that will cause some problems.
One particularly good example of how high expectations can come to an end is the bubble top in 2000. In retrospect it seems downright insane that investors were expecting fundamentals and earnings to be strong enough to support the huge valuations that were building. But it really didn't matter how unreasonable things had gotten until we started seeing some hard news that called those viewpoints into play.
I remember well one of my worst weeks ever that ended on April 14. Not only had the market suffered a huge hit but to add insult to injure I had to send one of the biggest checks I've ever written to the IRS. What caused this sudden reduction in the expectations of investors? There were many things but to some degree it was the reality of earnings for the first quarter of 2000. There were signs emerging that the numbers simply were not going to be big enough to support the giant move we had enjoyed over the preceding six months. In short, expectations met up with reality and that is what changed the trend.
I don't mean to suggest that things today are comparable to early 2000 but we do have some growing expectations about how the economy will pull back only a minor amount, how the housing market really isn't that bad, and how inflation is under control. We have been running on those views and now with earnings season upon us we will be forced to confront the validity of those views.
This morning we kick off earnings season with weak news from AA, DNA and LM. All three are indicated down as expectations are clearly not being met. Our job is to figure out if those are just isolated events or are a theme that is likely to continue as we see more reports. It is very possible that the market will simply shrug it off and continue its trek higher but the likelihood is that there will be some examination of expectations in certain cases.
We have a weak start on tap. Overseas markets were mostly weak and oil is flat. There are no major economic reports due but FOMC minutes are set to be released this afternoon, which will garner some attention.
At the time of publication, De Porre had no positions in stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time. -
Silma jäi RealMoney.com’i kirjutava Cody Willardi nägemus praegusest olukorrast. Toon siia tema paar mõtteavaldust ära, mis minu arust üpris hästi turgu iseloomustavad:
Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take) missed badly, and now, for the first time in weeks, the answer to the question "Who's more scared: the bulls or the bears?" is "the bulls."
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This morning's action in all three stocks has to make us prepare for the possibility that this earnings season will be characterized by selling the news.
It's also possible that we'll get a rotation from tech to energy this earnings season. So many energy bulls have left, and a lot of energy bears are getting short. Meanwhile, tech has been on fire and looks relatively expensive compared to the trailing P/Es of those energy stocks.
Ülespoole avanevad:
JJZ +18% (to be acquired), RMBS +7.4% (announces license agreement with Toshiba), GORX +8.2% (recovers after 10% drop yesterday), VBAC +7.5% (increases offer for publicly held shares), BLDP +4.3% (announces contract), NRPH +3.2% (FBR raises tgt to $52), INFY +3.1% (reports SepQ), XTLB +11%, RVSN +2.7% (extends recent movement), ATML +2.5% (report that former CEO potentially preparing a bid for co), PEIX +2.2% (extends recent momentum, comments on ethanol by Energy Sec Bodman), OTEX +2.2% (guides above consensus), BMC +1.9% (guides higher), PHRM +1.6% (Piper upgrade), NTRI +1.5% (Citigroup raises tgt to $95 from $85), ESRX +1% (Matrix upgrade, buy interest following multi-day plunge).
Allapoole avanevad:
CNET -13% (guides lower), LM -13% (guides below consensus; also FBR downrgade), SCHW -8.1% (BofA offers free online trades -- Reuters), AMTD -9.4% (same), VOXX -9.5% (reports Q2), AA -5.8% (reports Q3; down in sympathy: ERS -5.3%, AL -3.8%, CENX -2.2%), ACOR -4%, AXS -3.3% (Citigroup downgrades to Sell), CHTT -3.2% (JP Morgan downgrade), CPKI -3.3% (provides guidance; broker downgrade), OSIP -2.8% (partner DNA reports disappointing Tarceva sales), NAVR -2.6% (to take charge on Tower Records bankruptcy), NFI -2.5% (Morgan Stanely downgrade), SHPGY -2.5% (Goldman downgrade), IMCL -2.4% (profit taking after recent strong move), DNA -1.9% (reports Q3; weakness in a number of drugs), MRVL -2% (JMP downgrade), CMI -1.7% (Credit Suisse downgrade), AAPL -1% (options probe could raise conflicts - WSJ).
Kell 14.00 ET (USA idaranniku aja järgi) avaldatakse ‘FOMC Minutes’. Turu tähelepanu võib pälvida veel ka Richmondi Fed President Jeffrey Lacker’i kõne, mis leiab aset kell 13.30 ET. Täna alustab turg aga selgelt negatiivses territooriumis, ‘peasüüdlasteks’ eilsed tulemusteavaldajad. -
Ahaa, nüüd siis ka Joeli pilt! Kas pilt on värske või mingist varemast ajast?
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Pilt on värske ja võetud LHV meeskonna lehelt. Esimese sammuna üritame panna kõikidele LHV töötajatele pildid juurde.
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Uudis IPO valdkonnast. VISA teatas plaanidest restruktureerida firma (uue nimega Visa Inc.) ning korraldada IPO. Maikuus oli väga edukas IPO MasterCardil. Hind IPO järgsel kauplemispäeval sulgus $46 tasemel ning tänaseks jõutud $70 peale. Täna kauple MA -2,2% miinuses.
Link uudisele ... -
Üsna rängad uudised on-line brokerite vallast.
Nimelt on kommenteeritud niimõneski kohas tasuta on-line kauplemiskoeskonna Zecco turuletulekut. Nagu selgub, on ka sellistes kohtades siiski ka piirangud. Miinimumnõue ning pole veel kindel, aga ilmselt üsna palju teisigi konkse. Esmapilgul on hinnakirja alusel suur osa teenustest siiski tasulised ning kehtib miinimumsaldo nõue 2500 dollarile.
Selgus, et ka BAC on pakkumas tasuta kauplemisvõimalust, kuid juhul, kui kliendil on kontol vähemalt $25 000.
Kui püstitada hüpoteesi, et kauplemise tehingutasu hakkavad alanema (hinnasõda), siis võivad on-line brokerite kasumimarginaalid löögialla sattuda. ET, AMTD, SCHW, TRAD täna sügavas miinuses ning hetkel on ilmselt see peamiseks põhjuseks. -
Jah, eelmine aasta juba hakkasid on-line maaklerid sarvi kokku jooksma ning teenustasud langesid päris korralikult. Ehk nüüd tuleb uus voor, klientidel ainult võita.
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*eelmine kord oli siis eelmine aasta.
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Aga millal see hinnalangus Eestise jõuab? Unistan ammu juba mingist 9$ flat rate maaklerist.
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Kiire lühiajalise allamüügi taga oli väikelennuki allakukkumine New Yorki linnas
14:52 Small aircraft crashes into NYC building, according to news reports - DJ
14:53 Building on First Avenue and E. 79th Street according to Fire Department- Bloomberg
14:55 CNBC says have heard no indications that foul play is involved in plane crash in NYC -
Ja foorumlased sõimavad üksteist kinnisvaras. Paistab, et investorid on mujale kolinud?
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Lisan tagantjärgi siia ka FOMC Minutes tähtsamad punktid, mille peale kauplemine ka oluliselt elavnes. Kindlasti oli tähtis see, et jätkuvalt nähakse inflatsiooni probleemina, mis oli ka kella 2se allapoole liikumise üks peapõhjuseid.
FOMC minutes show concern inflation won't decline as forecast
FOMC minutes: Several worried inflation expectations could rise, Fed credibility suffer unless core rate fell
FOMC Minute: Core Inflation 'Undesireably Higher'
Dollar edges up after Sept FOMC minutes say Fed Officials "quite concerned" about inflation - Reuters
Minutes say growth likely to quicken next year
FOMC: Lacker dissented on September vote, felt more tightening needed to reduce inflation rapidly
FOMC: Economic Growth continues to moderate
FOMC: Some members worried that price credibility may be questioned
FOMC: Housing in particular continuing to moderate -
LHV enimkaubeldud aktsiate nimekirjas on kaks hullu aktsiat - CESI ja GRIN
Küsimus oleks selline, et mille alusel keegi on neid aktsiaid kaubelnud? -
Nad on jube odavad. :)
Keegi on "pumpajate" soovitust lugenud. -
CESI ja GRIN toodavad kotihoidjaid.Ise mängisin ka aga ostsin suht tõusu alguses ja müüsin poole peal maha.Isegi teades, et nad kukuvad sinna tagasi kust minema hakkasid ja sealt 1.3-2 kandist ostes, oli raske müüa kasumiga, kuna kõik, kes suure hurraaga 2+ pealt ostsid "nautisid" 1.3 peal soodusmüüki.Hämmastav,et ka siia maile jätkus nende aktsiatega kauplejaid, ka activetrading chatis olid need hetkeks kuum teema.
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suht sarnane kotimäng on viimasel ajal toimunud ka warrantitega ASTIZ, ASTIW, ETWCW ja mõned veel.
ASTIWi ostsin peale suurt tõusu kukkumise pealt mõned kilod keskmiselt 0.7 kandist ja eile olin õnnelik 0.6 pealt osa müües.Samas ASTIW võib uuesti lennata, sõltuvalt....... -
Päris ohtlik. Suhteliselt raske on ennustada selliste stockide liikumist peale mingi hype-promo ja lisaks on liigutatavad mõne üksiku suure tegija poolt. Kinni ei kartnud jääda?
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Vahest tuleb ise ka kotti hoida.
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Realmoney Mark Thomas toob välja hea pointi
Is the Market Ignoring Domestic Political Risk Right Now?
* The new 15% rate on stock dividends and long-term capital gains expire automatically in 2008.
* If the Republicans lose the election, those tax cuts are probably gone.
* A Democratic leadership won't let an extension bill get out of committee to get to a vote.
Tradesports.com näitab, et Respublican party kaotab kontrolli 60-protsendilise tõenäosusega.
Mark Thomas: The thing I'm most concerned about is that the new 15% rate on stock dividends and long-term capital gains expire automatically in 2008, and that is built into the valuations of high-dividend-paying stocks and the market overall. If the Republicans lose the the election, those tax cuts are probably gone because a Democratic leadership won't let an extension bill get out of committee to get to a vote. Most in the media get this wrong and think the cuts expire in 2010, but that is the top marginal rate that was cut from 39.5% to 36%. They also think -- like I did initially -- that the President could just veto (which would require a two-thirds vote to override) any tax increase, but that is also wrong because the tax cuts expire automatically without new legislation being passed.
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nüüd on siis teada vastus, et miks selline asi nagu CESI oli just siis enimkaubeldud aktsiate nimekirjas.... "oh my god" .. peaks vist ütlema.
