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  • Selling the News Action Bodes Ill

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/19/2006 8:41 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "The art of being wise is the art of knowing what to overlook."

    -- William James

    Although the DJIA and S&P 500 finished positive yesterday there was some very troubling aspects to the action. Foremost was the aggressive selling after the gap up. The indices gapped up on good earnings news from IBM and a benign CPI report. The strong open took the DJIA over the totally irrelevant but widely watched 12,000 mark but then the selling kicked in and stayed steady most of the day. There was some late stabilization but the dip buyers showed only limited interest in taking advantage of the lower prices.

    The action was a textbook example of sell the news. Market expectations were quite high and the news simply wasn't good enough to drive further buying. Those who were already positioned long were concerned that momentum would slow so they used the early strength to take profits. Once some selling too place that brought in more sellers who were anxious to protect gains and not let positions slip too much.

    The question for us to consider is whether yesterday's action was just a knee jerk reaction to the ridiculous hoopla over the DJIA's record that should be overlooked as just a meaningless short term blip or the start of a major change in market character. The market has been trending up in a dramatic manner for a while and has managed to shrug off a variety of worries and concerns.

    The big difference now compared to the last couple months is that we are in the middle of earnings season and are forced to confront some hard and cold numbers. It is much easier for the market to maintain a trend when there is little factual data to contradict the optimism of market players. Earnings tend to introduce a dose of reality that can serve to slow expectations that may have gotten a bit lofty.

    However, yesterday was just one day and nothing happened to really change the big picture that has been developing for months. The action might be an indication we are heading for trouble but it is too early to tell because the uptrend and the market sentiment are still firmly positive. Although we shouldn't blithely overlook what occurred we need not panic and make drastic moves either.

    The key here is to keep in mind the fact that the market struggled to rally on good news yesterday. If that tendency persists then we will need to be increasingly cautious. If you have some good recent gains it won't hurt to err on the side of caution and to be aggressive in protecting them. It is far more important that you preserve profits rather than strive to make more in a market that is exhibiting some early signs of problems.

    Apple is helping the bullish cause this morning following a good report but there also are some not-so-good reports from the likes of CTXS, AMD and NOK. Overseas markets are slightly weak, oil is bouncing back and gold is down.

    At the time of publication, De Porre had no positions in stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
  • Nagu juba tavaks saanud, lisan siia ka hommikused suuremad liikujad. Turg on veidi miinuses ning eilne gap-up'i kiire allamüük on pannud investorid turu suhtes pisut sügavamalt pead murdma. Eile hilisõhtused Apple'i tulemused olid tugevad ning ka aktsia korralikult plussis. Nokia valmistas aga see-eest investoritele pettumuse. Ettevõtte kasumimarginaal vähenes seoses odavamate toodete müügi osakaalu kasvuga. Nokia telefoni keskmine müügi hind langes €93 peale, olles 2. kvartalis €102.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: CPSS +24%, NVEC +13%, LOGI +11%, AVCT +7.8%, IONA +7.1%, RYL +5.8%, AAPL +5.9% (also a number of firms raise price targets), ERIC +4.2%, STLD +4%, ADS +3.6%, UPS +2.9%, BSX +2.7%, ISIL +1.9% (also Pacific Crest upgrade), EBAY +1.8%, KO +1.7%... Other News: OPTV +16% (firm to acquire OPTV's voting power), VTEK +10% (to be acquired), ECLG +6.7% (co says it may sell enrollment unit), CVGR +5.4% (announces contract, guides for Q3 revs), VPHM +5.1% (extends momentum), GPRO +3.7% (gets FDA clearance for Aptima), HANS +2.8% (to be added to S&P 400).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: CTXS -18% (also multiple downgrades), LEND -17% (guidance only), IFIN -13% (also downgrades from RBC and Ryan Beck), AMD -10% (also JP Morgan downgrade), COSI -10.5% (reports Q3 revs, guides on EPS), AVCI -6.4%, RDN -5.8%, SSTI -5.4% (also WR Hambrecht downgrade), WSTL -5.2%, SPSN -5% (also Merrill downgrades to Sell), QLTI -4.6% (guidance only; reports Visudyne revenue), ELNK -3.9%, WM -3.9%, NOK -3.4%, CBST -3.4%, LSTR -3.4%, AMLN -2.5%, ALL -2.3% (also OpCo downgrade), ET -2.2%, PLCM -1.6%, C -1.1%, JNPR -1% (reports Q3; down despite Goldman upgrade)... Other news: ATYT -4.3% (in sympathy with AMD as co is being acquired by AMD), EMMS -3.2% (to be dropped from S&P 400), DELL -2.8% (IDC data seen as negative for Dell; also in sympathy with AMD), TSN -2.8% (Deutsche downgrade), ASML -2.4% (extends yesterday's 6% drop), STJ -1% (Piper downgrade).
  • Annan omalt poolt ühe vihje ka (või siis meeldetuletuse, kuidas kellelegi). Kui on soov turul toimuvast selline kiire pilk/ülevaade saada, siis soovitan kasutada nn turuvaipa. Täiesti tasuta, mitmes vormis saadaval. Ise olen harjunud kasutama smartmoney 'vaipa'.

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    Sisaldab erinevaid sektoreid ning aitab kiirel pilgul hoomata palju informatsiooni. Näiteks hetkel paistab oma rohelisusega teistest enam silma energiasektor ja baasmaterjalid. 

  • Juhtkirjas kirjeldatud OPEC'i poolne nafta tootmise vähendamise (1,2 miljoni barreli võrra) suurus on 4,3% OPECi septembris toodetud naftakogusest. Tegu oli esimese OPECi poolse ühise pakkumise vähendamisega rohkem kui viimase kahe aasta jooksul.

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