Phase Forward (PFWD)
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Phase Forward (PFWD) on sõna otseses mõttes üks juhtivamaid kliiniliste katsetuste andmete digitaliseerimise, haldamise ning monitooringu lahendusi pakkuv firma. Tegemist on suurima firmaga alles esimesi samme tegevas tööstusharus. Ettevõte aitab farmaatsia-, biotehnoloogia- ja meditsiinivahendeid tootvatel firmadel viia läbi kliinilisi katseid ja teha monitooringut tunduvalt efektiivsemalt kui seda on tehtud juba kümneid aastaid.Phase Forward pakub kolme erinevat integreeritud tarkvaramoodulit:Andmete digitaliseerimine (electronic data capture – EDC), Kliiniliste andmete haldamine (clinical data management – CDM), Andmete ja testimisprotsessi monitooring.
Kuna sulgesin idee juba mõnda aega tagasi Pro all, siis toon firma tulemused ära foorumis, kui firma veel mõnele huvilisele orbiiti on jäänud.
Phase Forward reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.11 per share, $0.02 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.09; revenues rose 26.1% year/year to $28 mln vs the $27 mln consensus. Co guides for Q4, sees EPS of $0.11-0.12 vs. $0.11 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $29.2-30 mln vs. $28.65 mln consensus. Co guides for FY06, sees EPS of $0.37-0.38 vs. $0.35 consensus; sees FY06 revs of $105.6-106.4 mln vs. $103.88 mln consensus.
Peale häid tulemusi tõstis oma hinnasihti ka Piper:
Piper Jaffray upgrades Phase Forward (PFWD 12.70) to Outperform from Market Perform and raises tgt to $16 from $12, based on outperformance on the license revenue line in the quarter, the new product cycle in 2006-07 that could maintain the momentum and innovative methods of conducting clinical trials that require electronic data capture and channel checks indicate broader market adoption.
Kokkuvõttes kaupleb ettevõte eelturul rohkem kui 10% plussis. Asjad paistavad ka täna väga hästi minevat.
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Uurimis- ja arendustegevuste kulutuste agregeeritud graafik nende ettevõtete kohta, kes on PhRMA-ga ühinenud. Large-cap farmaatsiaettevõtetelt oodatakse 2006. aasta kulutusteks kokku ca $49 miljardit, mida on võrreldes 2005. aasta $46 miljradiga 7% rohkem. Kuigi kasv R&D kulutustele on aeglustunud (näitab ka allolev tabel PhRMA liikmete kohta), tuleb siiski tõdeda uurimistegevusse voolavaid dollareid on jätkuvalt palju.
Suurenevad kulutused farmaatsias R&D peale on vesi Phase Forwardi(PFWD) veskile ja aitab seletada ettevõtte edukust. Teatud iseärasustega pakuvad sarnaseid tooteid veel eResearchTechnology(ERES) ja Datatrak(DATA). ERES sai täna ka upgrade'i Friedman Billingsilt 'Market Performi' pealt 'Outperform i' peale ja $8 hinnasihi.
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Brean Murray notes PFWD exceeded 3Q07 expectations and raised its 2007 outlook. Rev grew 24% YoY to $34.9 mln, including 29% YoY growth in EDC rev, while EPS of $0.16 was a penny above their expectations. The co continues to benefit from the accelerating market and noticeably improved win rate as the co highlighted three very large selections it won during the quarter (Eisai, Novartis Vaccines and U.S. Army). PFWD also had solid cash from operations of $8 mln, translating into $0.14 in FCF per share. Consistent with their investment thesis, the company raised its revenue, bookings and EPS guidance.
PFWD sai LHV Pro all kasumiga kinni aprillis 2007 hinnatasemel 16 USD, täna hind üle 19 USD ... kas keegi peab endiselt firmat silmas? -
Henno, mul on ikka koguaeg pilk peal ja positiivseid üllatusi tuleb pea iga kvartal.
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Phase Forward Inc. (PFWD) - MIINUS 14%.
-- Fourth Quarter Revenue of $37.8 million increases 25% over prior year
-- Fourth Quarter Non-GAAP operating income of $5.3 million increases 28% over prior year -
Otsene tootmistulu vähenes ja eks valuatsioon oli ka liiga kõrgeks läinud. Kuna veel suht potentsiaalikas, siis paari kvartaliga ehk leiab oma põhja.
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Brean Murray upgrades PFWD to Buy from Hold with a $19 tgt noting PFWD is down 32% since mid-December, which they believe has brought the risk/reward to very attractive levels. The firm believes the co is benefitting from a favorable macro trend that should offset the negative macroeconomic environment and believe their revenue and EPS ests have meaningful upside potential.
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Phase Forward (Nasdaq) USD -4,25; -28,6%
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Aktsia languse põhjuseks siis nõrgad tulevikuootused.
The Waltham, Mass., company said Thursday that it expected to earn from 26 cents to 32 cents per share in 2010, or from 54 cents to 60 cents per share excluding one-time charges.
Analyst had estimated profit of 63 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Phase Forward also said it lost $68,000, or less than a penny per share, during the fourth quarter, compared with a profit of $2.7 million, or 6 cents per share, in the same quarter the year before.
Excluding impairment charges and other one-time items, the company said it earned $5.9 million, or 13 cents per share, in the latest quarter.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected profit of 13 cents per share. Analysts typically exclude one-time items from their estimates.
Adjusted revenue rose to $59.4 million from $49.1 million. Analysts expected $58.7 million in revenue.
For 2009, Phase Forward earned $8 million, or 18 cents per share, down from $13.8 million, or 32 cents per share, in 2008. Adjusted revenue rose to $216.3 million from $171.2 million.
Growth in the company's core business, electronic data capture, will slow to about 8 percent to 10 percent this year, Needham analyst Richard Davis wrote in a note to investors. He downgraded Phase Forward to "Hold" from "Buy." -
Mõtlemapanev on ka lõik:
"Companies are increasingly building that technology themselves, rather than relying on Phase Forward, Close said. He cut his share price target by $3 to $17."
Saan aru, et tegemist siis Needham'i arvamusega.
Oliver ja Joel on seda aktsiat Pro all 2006 ja 2007.a. põhjalikult katnud. Kas vahepeal on investeerimistees muutunud või on hetkel hea sisenemiskoht? -
Tõmbame teemale joone alla:
Phase Forward Incorporated (NASDAQ: PFWD), a leading provider of data management solutions for clinical trials and drug safety, today announced that it has agreed to be acquired by Oracle for $17.00 per share in cash, representing a valuation of approximately $685 million.
Oracle tegi siis "Normat".
