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Börsipäev 17. november

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  • Täna kirjutab Barrons Insider Scoopis WCI Communicationist (WCI), kuhu on end lisaks insaideritele sisse ostnud ka Bill & Melinda Gates Fund ning Carl Icahni investeerimisfirma Icahn Management.

    WCI COMMUNITIES STOCK has become a battleground between bullish billionaires and a bearish Street as insiders and institutional players purchased shares despite analysts' bleak assessments of the Florida home builder.

    On Monday, Charles Cobb Jr., a WCI director since 2005, spent $1.56 million to purchase 100,000 shares in the open market, according to yesterday's Security and Exchange Commission filing.

    The day after Cobb's purchase, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust and Carl Icahn's investment firm, Icahn Management, each disclosed initial stakes in the company, according to their third-quarter filings with the SEC Tuesday.

    Cobb's only other open-market purchase took place a year ago. Cobb now beneficially owns 120,000 shares. There are 41.85 million outstanding WCI shares.

    Cobb is also the chief executive of Cobb Partners, a Coral Gables, Fla.-based investment firm. He previously served as a U.S. ambassador to Iceland under George H.W. Bush and as undersecretary and assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Commerce under the Reagan administration.

    Ben Silverman, director of research at InsiderScore.com, says, "The sentiment toward the company is extremely bearish," given concerns over the housing market and about WCI's level of debt. But Cobb's "timing proved very good" in light of initial holdings disclosed by two heavy hitters.

    WCI shares have popped as much as 20% since the disclosures, but they are still down 31% this year. The Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index is down 26%.

    As of Sept. 30, the foundation led by Microsoft founder Bill Gates and his wife Melinda reported it purchased 887,000 shares valued at nearly $15.5 million. The entity's equity assets rose to about $6.2 billion in 62 positions during the third quarter from $4 billion held in 52 stocks in the previous quarter. The foundation has earned an average return of 8.53% per year since 1999.

    Icahn Management acquired 1.66 million WCI shares valued at $28.95 million during the third quarter.

    Specific transaction prices and dates regarding the Gates and Icahn transactions were not disclosed because their holdings fall shy of the 5% ownership level requiring such disclosure.

    WCI stock fell from a high of around $20 during the third quarter to a one-year low of $13.73.

    InsiderScore.com's Silverman says, "The interesting thing is you have two billionaires buying the stock at the same time when home builders have obviously been beaten down, and you have one director who's got a great background."

    Jonathan Moreland, director of research at InsiderInsights.com, says that considering the timing of Cobb's transaction, "I think investors could be forgiven for wondering whether or not he knew about these other purchases."

    "What is certain is that Cobb has to hold these shares for six months," he adds.

    WCI builds luxury homes and condominiums, mainly in Florida. In its third-quarter report on Nov. 7, the company noted an uptick in consumer defaults and contract cancellations at twice the historic rates. Despite earnings deterioration, the company expects to earn $1 to $2 per share in fiscal 2007, which analysts are saying is still too optimistic.

    So, on one side, Cobb and the two large investors are siding with the company's outlook while "on the other side you have [sell-side] analysts who are extremely bearish on the name," says Silverman. "There is a bear-bull battle going around with the stock."

    Silverman says the Street seems to be discounting potential activism by another major holder.

    Basswood Partners, a value-oriented hedge fund based in New York, last month disclosed a 5.1% stake in WCI with 2.1 million shares, costing more than $42.5 million. Basswood has sent two unreturned requests to WCI seeking a board seat. Undaunted, the fund said it may seek to push for operational changes or a sale of the company.

  • Gates'e sisseostmisega on see kogemus, et alguses vähe üles ja siis kõvasti alla. DSCM näiteks.
  • Kui palju sa nende oste oled jälginud ja lause "The foundation has earned an average return of 8.53% per year since 1999" seda kõvasti alla teesi kindlasti ei kinnita !?
  • Deutsche Bank initiates Taleo (TLEO 11.77) with a Buy and $16 tgt, as they expect the to benefit from industry catalysts such as the declining tenure of workers, globalization, the aging work force, and an increased attention to the importance of hiring, maintaining, and expanding human capital

    Lynch removes Union Pacific (UNP 91.99) from Focus 1 list

    Wachovia initiates MedCath (MDTH 24.03) with an Outperform, as they believe the co is well-positioned within its markets due to the proprietary clinical design of its hospitals, its partnerships with practicing physicians, its demonstrated clinical outcomes, its strong market share, and minimal competition from physicians

    Merrill initiates Formfactor (FORM 37.66) with a Buy

    Citigroup upgrades Universal Health Services (UHS 52.04) to Buy from Hold and $72 tgt

    Citigroup downgrades Wynn Resorts (WYNN 94.75) to Hold from Buy

    BB&T downgrades Williams-Sonoma (WSM 31.70) to Hold from Buy, as the co reported upside Q306 yet lowered Q4 guidance to reflect continued weakness at Pottery Barn, offset by better performance in the kids' and teens' concepts and Williams-Sonoma

    Bear Stearns downgrades Xilinx (XLNX 28.21) to Peer Perform from Outperform

    Prudential downgrades Marvell Technology Group (MRVL 19.62) to Underweight from Neutral and $15 tgt, as they believe there is a risk that the co's operating expenses increase as they enhance its development and marketing organizations in order to realize the full, long term revenue opportunities

    WFR MEMC Elec: Near-term business trends strong; not sure about long term prospectsFriedman Billings says checks with distributors, competitors, and customers suggest strong near term biz trends for WFR, primarily driven by: 1)selling excess poly into the spot market with spot prices at greater than $250/kg (vs. contract prices ~$85/kg); 2)200mm wafer prices up 1%-3% Q/Q; 3)strong demand by memory customers. However, their checks also support their more cautious stance on WFR's long-term growth prospects, driven by: 1)larger than expected industry wide poly capacity in CY07; 2) semi wafer customers currently receiving better longer-term contracts from Japanese competitors; 3)consistent with their thesis, Japanese competitors acquiring a number of Epi reactors in 4Q06 as they accelerate semi wafer capacity ramps; 4) Epi wafer demand expected to grow faster in CY07 due to migration to sub 90nm; 5)Japanese competitors estimated to have greater than 65% Epi market share

    DNA Genentech: FDA approved Herceptin for use in early-stage adjuvant breat cancerRBC notes the FDA has approved Herceptin for use in early-stage adjuvant breast cancer. Firm says the approval of Herceptin for the use in adjuvant breast cancer was widely expected and the timing was in-line with the PDUFA of Nov 16. Firm forecasts no impact to our current Herceptin sales because: Herceptin is already the standard of care in this setting based on overwhelming positive results from multiple Phase III trials. Firm believes growth from new patients starting Herceptin and the new label expansion will offset the patients coming off treatment and improve sequential growth. Firm is currently forecasting $318 mln in Q4 sales vs. $302 mln in Q3. On the Q3 conf call, mgmt suggested that sales in the adjuvant setting may be near a plateau, but also indicated that there may be additional growth potential with a new indication. Firm says future potential upside to the franchise may still come from the ongoing HERA study, which is testing two years of Herceptin therapy vs. one year. 

  • Taiwani allikad lasksid täna lendu vihjeid AMD protsessoritega Apple Mac arvutite võimalikust planeerimisest.
    Nüüd, mil Apple on suutnud leppida oma vihase konkurendi Microsoftiga ning õppinud oma masinates MacOSi kõrval taluma ka Windowsit, siis mis saab edasi, küsib Wired.

    Taiwani IT-äri ajakirja DigiTimes luureandmetel on järsult suurenenud Apple’i poolsed teatud tüüpi kondensaatorite tellimused. Neid kondensaatoreid on arvutikomponentide tootjad kasutanud põhiliselt AMD protsessorite toiteahelates.
    Ka on AMD boss Hector Ruiz vihjanud partnerlussuhetele Apple’iga ning just hiljaaegu ostis ju AMD Apple’i kauaaegse partneri ATI.

    Midagi absoluutselt võimatut siin pole – näiteks pikki aastaid ainult Intelile truu olnud maailma hetke teine arvutitootja Dell on samuti alustanud AMD-arvutite tootmist.
    http://www.postimees.ee/171106/esileht/olulised_teemad/tarbija24/tehnika/229257.php?r

    mida sellise uudise peale oodata ? tõus amd-ga seotud firmadele?
  • Citi kinnitab HPQ "osta" reitingut:

    ➤ We reiterate a Buy (1H) rating for HPQ shares. Our valuation analysis suggestsa revised 12-month price target of $48, or 20% upside from current levels.

    ➤ Hewlett-Packard reported very solid 4FQ06 results Thursday after the close.Revenue of $24.6B (+7% yoy, +6% cc) was 2% above our est and consensus of$24.1B due to revenue upside in every product category except Software. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.68 was $0.01 above our est and $0.04 above consensus.

    ➤ 1FQ07 guidance was also solid. Revenue guidance of $24.1-24.3B wasgenerally in line with our estimate of $24.1B but above the consensus of$23.9B. Non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.60-0.62 was generally in line with ourest of $0.62 and consensus of $0.60, but we view this guidance as conservative.

    ➤ We are raising our above-consensus FY07 and FY08 EPS estimates to reflectbetter-than-expected operating margins across all segments except PCs.Weexpect significant upside to management guidance and consensus.

    Siiski enne tulemusi näitas HPQ sarnaselt AAPL-ga nõrka kauplemismustrit võrreldes turuga. Mitmed küsimärgid siiski kogu selle tugevuse juures jäävad, kuna firma ei saa peituda marginaalide osas enam restruktureerimise taha ning eks DELLi nõrkus ole andnud omaosa tugevusest.

    In a conference call yesterday, Mr. Hurd said H-P had "substantially completed its restructuring" and was working to consolidate real estate. That means the company can no longer rely on cost cutting and will have to increase its sales more quickly in order to keep up the momentum, say analysts. "Earnings growth is going to be a little more closely tied to the growth in revenue," said Brent Bracelin, an analyst with Pacific Crest Securities.

  • Sensex tõusis täna uutesse kõrgustesse – varasel kauplemisel tõusis indeks enam kui 170 punkti ning jõudis 13 678 punktini.

    Seoses tänase NYMEXi IPOga:

    Energy exchange NYMEX Holdings (NMX) prices its highly anticipated IPO at $59, above the expected range of $54-57, which had been raised from $48-52. The NYMEX is the world's largest exchange for the trading energy futures and options contracts (crude oil, unleaded gasoline, heating oil and natural gas). Approximately 63% of all globally listed energy futures and options contracts were traded on the NYMEX last year. The NYMEX is also the largest physical commodity-based futures exchange and clearinghouse in the world and the third-largest futures exchange in the US. Even though other exchanges offer smaller metals contracts, the co is also the largest exchange for trading special metals (gold, silver, copper and aluminum). The co operates the NYMEX and the COMEX. For the 9 mos ended Sep 30, net revenue rose 51% yr/yr to $381.5 mln and pro forma EPS jumped to $1.35 from $0.69 a year earlier.... Briefing Note: Clearly investors have been chomping at the bit for this deal for the past two weeks. Everyone is hoping it's the next BOT, NYX, CME or ICE as market-related stocks have been huge winners. NMX is following the BOT model of a tiny offering size (6 mln) despite the large size of the company in order to get a nice first day pop. If we annualize NMX's pro forma EPS in 2006, we get $1.80 for a p/e of 33x. Even at $59, it compares well to other p/e's: NYX at 57x, BOT at 49x, CME at 47x, ICE at 42x. However, a pop at the open is likely. This is being led by JP Morgan and Merrill. (IPOXX)

    Majandusandmeid kinnisvara kohta:

    Building Permits 1535K vs 1625K consensus
    Housing Starts 1486K vs 1680K consensus

    Näitajad oodatust nõrgemad
  • ThinkEquity notes HPQ reported better-than-expected 3QCY06 results yesterday after the close. Third-quarter revs and EPS were higher than both consensus and their expectations. The better-than-expected results were aided by strong sales in the IPG and PSG segments. Despite the solid results and market share gains, firm continues to believe that Enterprise Hardware in general is weakening, and services have slowed. Firm believes HPQ's growth will likely be muted over the next several quarters, offset somewhat by its aggressive restructuring efforts. They believe investors should remain focused on the weakness in the PC and enterprise demand environment and the impact it will have on HP's PC business going forward. Additionally, firm is not a big believer that Vista will spur demand for PC...

    BofA affirms their Buy and raises their tgt on HPQ to $44 from $42. Firms Y07 ests go to $2.50 from $2.46 (consensus $2.48) and introduces Y08 EPS of $2.82 (consensus $2.83). Firm says upside to the qtr last night was largely expected. Firm notes several key issues. 1) They believe that HPQ had only a modest, if any, benefit from channel selling, 2) They still see stock buy back as a solid opportunity for EPS growth, and potential upside to their model, and 3) mix partially explains the q/q decline in gross margins, but they do have some remaining questions in this area. Firm believes that mgmt will focus on the long-term potential, including margins, at the Dec analyst day. They see additional catalysts for the shares including a) improved services rev growth rate and margins, b) software increasing as a % of revs, which helps margins and growth rates, and c) additional cost cuts in IT and real estate, and d) volume variances impacting op margins.
  • The great SAC hedge fond andis välja 13-F aruande eile õhtul. SAC hoiab 24 miljonti Time Warneri (TWX) aktsiat, kuigi müüs 5 miljonit,

    Uued märkimisväärsed positsioonid on NTL (NTLI), Pentair (PNR) jaTyco International (TYC). Muud suured positsioonid on Goldcorp (GG), Cypress Semiconductor (CY), Business Objects (BOBJ), Annaly Capital Management (NLY) ja Alcoa (AA).

  • Panen siia täna lühikese lõigu Realmoney'sse kirjutavalt Steven Smithi sulest. Seda seepärast, et ta on üpriski selgelt ja lihtsa näite najal ära selgitanud, miks optsioonide lõppedes kipuvad aktsiad ümmarguste numbrite juurde triivima.

    On Pins and Needles

    By Steven Smith
    Senior Columnist
    11/17/2006 8:51 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Steven Smith

    Today is options expiration, and that means people will be talking about and looking for "pinning" activity, which is the tendency for stocks to gravitate toward option strike prices. While this dynamic definitely exists, it is the result of the forces of natural hedging, not manipulation.

    Here is how the dynamics might play out in actual equity options:

    Imagine I'm long five $17.50 calls in XYZ. As the stock rises above the strike, I can look to take a profit either by selling the stock in an attempt to lock in a small profit or by simply closing the position by selling out the calls. In both cases, this creates selling pressure and drives the shares back toward the $17.50 strike price.

    If I sell out the calls, they are bought by someone else, who now in turn might short shares of XYZ.

    This plays out on both the put side and the call side. The larger the open interest at the strike, the greater the magnetic pull. All of this trading is mostly done by market makers using their long gamma inventory as a way to scalp a few dollars on expiration day. Here is an explanation of how shorting common against long calls can be used for short-term trades to lock in small profits.

    Given that market makers tend to trade from a delta-neutral standpoint, in the absence of other outside forces, it's no surprise a stock's price hugs the at-the-money strike price.

    Also, because the delta on a slightly in-the-money option increases as expiration approaches, meaning the share equivalent of the option's open interest at a given strike rises, the forces that create a pin become stronger the closer we get to expiration.

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