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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 29. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Tiffany & Co (TIF) reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.21 per share, including gains, may not compare to the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.16; revenues rose 9.5% year/year to $547.8 mln vs the $543.3 mln consensus. Co issues guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $1.79-1.84 vs. $1.77 consensus; sees FY07 rev growth of 10% to rouhgly $2.63 bln vs. $2.61 bln consensus.

    Goldman initiates the Airline Sector with a Neutral, the firm initiates AMR Corp (AMR 31.95), and UAL Corp. (UAUA 40.51) with Buys, the firm initiates Jetblue (JBLU 13.96), Hawaiian Holdings (HA 4.98), Alaska (ALK 40.98), Continental (CAL 41.50), and US Airways (LCC 59.18) with Neutrals.The firm also initiates Southwest (LUV 15.78) with a Sell

    JP Morgan downgrades NYSE Group (NYX 101.20) to Neutral from Overweight

    UBS downgrades Ann Taylor (ANN 34.13) to Neutral from Buy

    22. novembril tuli välja selline uudis:

    U.S. mortgage applications fell for the first time in three weeks despite a dip in mortgage rates to their lowest level since January, an industry trade group said Wednesday.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and purchasing loans, for the week ended Nov. 17 decreased 3.7 percent to 623.6 from the previous week's 647.5.

    Täna aga kirjutatakse järgmist:

    MBA Mortgage Applications -3.9% for the week ended Nov. 24.

    Kuigi erinevate firmade kaudu on kuulda olnud seda juba varem, prognoositakseja 2008. aastal CFC poolt ilusamaid aegu. Kui kuuleme ka edaspidi Mortgage Applications langusest, võivad nii pika aja taha ulatuvad kommentaarid CFC poolt ununema hakata ning antud sektor taaskord peale tõusu löögi alla sattuda.

    WSJ kirjutab SBUX probleemidest hiinas. Kindlasti üks põhjus, miks paljud aktsiat omavad on sealne kasvupotentsiaal. Arvan, et äratabtähelepanu eriti peale viimaseid tulemusi, mis andsid taas märku SSS nõrkusest ning tööjõukulude kasvust. Inimesed ei hooli 4-taalasestlattest.

    WSJ reports the co aims to one day have thousands of stores here, eventually making China its largest mkt outside the U.S. But Starbucks faces a big obstacle: Most of China's 1.3 bln people don't care for the chain's signature product. Coffee is so unpopular in China's tea-drinking culture that until recently many Starbucks didn't brew regular drip coffee unless a customer ordered it. Now Starbucks is betting a new generation of Chinese with growing spending power and an appetite for high-status brands will flock to its stores. It's trying to draw in Chinese customers with a new type of informal gathering place. Once captive, that's when consumers' coffee education begins. Starbucks has competition from a new generation of Chinese teahouses -- some of which offer both traditional beverages and a social, laid-back coffeehouse culture. China's tightly regulated business environment also throws up hurdles. Financial rules prevent the chain from offering a Starbucks payment card. The country's fragmented govt and currency-conversion limits make banking generally difficult.

    Suntrust notes that specialty consumer electronic stocks have been volatile of late and will likely continue to be so in the near term. While they believe price declines prior to Thanksgiving may have been modestly faster than expected, they seem to have moderated, with prices in some panel sizes even increasing modestly. The firm would use weakness to add to long-term positions in Circuit City (CC 24.04), but would consider Best Buy (BBY 52.03) as well

  • 3. kvartali SKP oli oodatust parem:

    Chain Deflator- Prelim +1.8% vs +1.8% consensus
    Q3 GDP- Prelim +2.2% vs +1.8% consensus
  • GNA põrkas Bollingeri alaservast ja 50 päeva libisevalt keskmiselt, kuid tänu turgude suhtelise nõrkusele on põrke järel liigutud külgsuunas. Panen täna siia juurde ka graafiku ning näitan, mida ma silmas pidasin. Tingimusel, et aktsia üle 10 dollari tõuseb, on oodata ka liikumist ülespoole 20 päeva libisevat keskmist. Viimase kahe päeva külgsuunas liikumine on toimunud küll väga väikese käibega, mistõttu tugeva käibega alla liikumine võib tekitada hoopis negatiivse nägemuse, sest sellisel juhul võiks eeldada, et 20 päeva MA jääb ülemiseks toetuseks. Väga tugev käive languspäevadel on tinginud ka Chaikini Money Flow negatiivseks muutumise. MACD crossover muudaks pildi kenamaks, GNA suhtes on tehniline pilt üldjuhul jätkuvalt positiivne.

    Mõned päevad tagasi tõin foorumis välja mõned nimed, mis võiksid tehniliselt olal huvipakkuvad. Üheks nimeks oli Procter & Gamble, mille volatiilsus on viimastel kuudel olnud väga madal. Kuna tõusupäevade käive on võrreldes languspäevade käibega kahanenud, on ka CMF teinud aktsia hinnaga vastassuunalise liikumise, sama käib ka MACD kohta, kus kahe libiseva keskmise erinevus on vähenenud. Paljuski tänu turu nõrkusele, toimus läbimurre allapoole.

    Täna on indeksite futuurid plusspoolel, mis tähendab ilmselt positiivset starti. Päeva sees saab näha, kui tugev turg on ning mida võiks homne tehniline pilt näidata.

  • Investors' Intelligence, Bulls 57.5; Bears muutumatu
  • Eile langetas Deutsche Bank oma neljanda kvartali real GDP prognoosi nullile varasemtalt +1% tasemelt, viidates tarbijakulutuste nõrkusele.
  • Kas kellelgi on infot miks Six Flags (SIX) eelturul 4.2% plussis on? Ühtki uudist pole näha, kas mingid kõlakad jälle :)
  • Shark räägib täna dip-buyer'itest. Ise võrdleksin tema lugu sellest, et kas 'põhja õngitsejad' pullid on nõus odavamalt aktsiad ostma või kaalub karude müügisurve nende püüdlused üle, sellega, kui keegi tuleb pakkuma 20 000 kroonist televiisorit 12 000 krooniga. Pähe tuleb mõte, et miks nii odav, kas sel on midagi viltu jne..Ning võib-olla jääbki ost tegemata. Samas, kui pakkumishind oleks 18 000 krooni, leiduks ostjaid kui murdu. My point - väikest langust/hinnaalandust ollakse valmis kiiresti ostma, suurema languse korral hakatakse aga teo õigsuses kahtlema. Seega mitte alati pole odavam parem ning kui nasdaq peaks esmaspäevase languse tagasi võtma, tuleks ostjaid kindlasti juurde, kas või lühikeseks müüjate katmise näol.

    Market MVP: The Dip Buyer

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    11/29/2006 8:28 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Do you really think, Arthur, that it is weakness that yields to temptation? I tell you that there are terrible temptations that it requires strength, strength and courage, to yield to."

    -- Oscar Wilde

    The key to the market is whether the bulls have the strength and courage to give in to the temptation of lower prices -- the dip buyers control the short-term direction of this market.

    If they are willing to step up and take advantage of the dip and send us back toward the highs of last week, it will force bears to cover and the folks with cash on the sidelines to plunge back in. If, on the other hand, the dip buyers don't show any real vigor and an attempted bounce struggles, the fallout is likely to be quite negative.

    At the moment there are still plenty of bulls who have ridden this uptrend and are quite content that it will run through the end of the year. They can easily shrug off the Monday debacle especially if we bounce big and broad. If we don't see vigorous buying and a good recovery, they will get nervous and start thinking much harder about locking in some of their recent gains. If they do that, the bears, who are still licking their many wounds, may actually find the confidence to press to the downside a little.

    Surprisingly, Ben Bernanke's rather hawkish comments yesterday afternoon were taken in stride by the market. The rehash this morning in the Wall Street Journal of his comments seems quite market negative but we aren't seeing any response in the early indications. The market seems focused on the dollar, which is rebounding a bit this morning. We have preliminary GDP and new-home sales reports this morning, which may cause a ripple.


    One less weighty issue I'll be watching today is the weather forecast. We are getting our first cold weather of the winter on the West Coast and it's expected to cross the country over the next week. This may have an effect on energy consumption as well as retail shopping and I'll be watching for themes to develop, such as an interest in natural gas plays.

    Overseas markets bounced strongly overnight and we have a positive start this morning. The dip buyers are busy and we'll see what sort of juice they have?
  • Miks AMZN ära vajus? Kas mingid müügitulemused?
  • angelp, hetkel uudiseid ei näe ning eelturul on tehtud 200 aktsiat ülevalpool praegust spreadi. Uurin asja lähemalt.
  • Ülespoole avanevad:

    TATTF +24%, RSTO +10% (also BB&T upgrade), DBRN +8%, SIGM +7%, MBT +5.4%, ARO +5.4%, TIF +5.3%, LNUX +4.4% (also ThinkEquity raises tgt to $6)... Other News: DVAX +28% (positive clinical results for Heplisav), POSS +16% (gets FDA clearance for catheter), TISA +10.4% (announces it will dual-list on Tel Aviv stock exchange), ABBI +12% (gets generic approval for Unasyn), DIL +6.6%, TGEN +5% (has been volatile all week), PNTR +5% (momentum continues), GSK +3.1% (drug stocks strong in Europe), AZN +3.1% (same), AAPL +1.6% (Bear Stearns raises tgt to $100), PFE +1.4% (announces it will reduce sales staff), INTC +1.3% (positive UBS comments), VZ +1.3% (AG Edwards upgrade), ASML +1.1%... Under $3: MKTY +14% (seen as sympathy play on WSJ article re battery startups), INHX +9%.

    Allapoole avanevad:

    COMS -10% (buying out JV partner in China; also Bear Stearns downgrade), CSLR -11% (profit taking after 213% move yesterday), TOPT -10.4% (auditors resign; co to restate results), EXLS -5.5% (multiple initiations of coverage of this recnt IPO; Goldman starts at Sell), WPSC -5% (KeyBanc downgrade), CLWT -5%, ARNA -4.8% (announces stock offering), KFRC -3.2%, SCVL -3.3%, ALD -3.1%, AMLN -2.8% (Piper lowers Q4 Byetta estimates), ACGY -2% (provides guidance), DG -1.9% (names new C.O.O.).
  • Eilses börsipäevas tõi Aimar välja Nasdaq`i Graafiku, kus oli näha paari aastane trendikanal. Usun, et ylemine vastupanujoon, mis hetkel asub 2470 punkti juures, on päris tugev. Kui see peaks murduma, siis ootaks edasist tõusu. Endal eriti usku sellesse ei ole praegu edasiseks töusuks, pigem panustaksin hetkel langusele, või siis vähemalt kylgsuunalisele liikumisele. Hetkel tundub kõik liiga ilus, et olla tõsi, isegi tavapärast punast oktoobrit ei olnud sel aastal ;-0.
    https://www.lhv.ee/forums/index.cfm?id=132509#9
    Mis te arvate, kas turg tõuseb veel rõõmsalt edasi, vöi põõrdume langusele?
  • kui seda ette teaks, ostaks viru hotelli kodutute varjupaigaks :)
  • Oleme väljendanud oma arvamust USA tarbija ning majanduse kohta ka siin lehel. Oleme pigem karused. Praegu on võlakirjaturg ja aktsiaturg kõvasti rallinud ning üks neist tõenäoliselt eksib. Arvan, et viimasest tuleb kõvasti auru välja lasta. Soovitusena seda võtta kindlasti ei tasu, kuna indeksite liikumise ennustamine on võrrand, milles on liiga palju muutujaid.
  • Nafta raport oli nafta sektori jaoks tugev. Seda eriti, kui võrrelda neid eelmise nädala väga nõrkade tulemustega.

    The E.I.A. reports that crude oil inventories had a draw of 360K barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 350K barrels); gasoline inventories had a draw of 589K barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 450K); distillate inventories had a draw of 1.0 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 500K).

    Total commercial petroleum inventories plummeted by 7.5 million barrels last week
  • DB Ackermanni Mannesmanni aegne asi siis lõpuks ühel pool.

    The Duesseldorf state court on Wednesday approved a deal between prosecutors and the defense that will see the defendants make payments totaling 5.8 million euros ($7.6 million) in return for charges being dropped. Of that, Ackermann will pay 3.2 million euros ($4.2 million)._Prosecutors have said the payment is not a fine and "the presumption of innocence remains valid."

    Märkimisväärne otsus Hiinast Allianzile, AXAle ja ka näiteks MSle

    China's National Council for Social Security Fund (NSSF) on Wednesday awarded its first mandates to foreign fund managers, entrusting 11 firms to invest more than $1 billion on its behalf. 

    Economists say China's national social-security fund, with assets of just 230 billion yuan ($29.4 billion), is seriously underfunded for meeting the future needs of China's rapidly aging population. Social-security-fund officials expect their assets to grow rapidly in the coming years as Beijing puts more funds under their management to deal with the effects of the country's one-child policy.

    Ümberkorraldused Citigroupis

    WSJ: Citigroup Inc. is planning to tear down barriers between its Smith Barney and Citibank units, making it the latest financial-services firm that wants to be both broker and banker to more of its customers. Citigroup expects to finish merging the two units' computer systems in late April

    GS aktiivne Saksamaal ja Jaapanis

    Munich Re  said on Wednesday it was selling German real estate worth more than 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) to Goldman Sachs' Whitehall fund and property company Patrizia Immobilien.

    Businessweek kirjutab Goldmani viimasest "päästeoperatsioonist" Jaapanis

    Rescuing troubled electronics maker Sanyo Electric (SANYY) could be Goldman's toughest mission in Japan to date. In January, Goldman, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Daiwa Securities SMBC combined to pony up $2.6 billion in return for preference shares and five seats on Sanyo's board. Osaka-based Sanyo certainly needs a helping hand. It lost $1.77 billion in the year through March, 2006, and $1.48 billion the year before that.

  • Hommikul järjekordse targeti tõstmise, sedakorda Bear Sternsilt $94->$100, saanud Apple(AAPL) on hommikuse gap up'i selgelt maha müünud ning järkjärgulise langusega miinusesse vajunud. Ka üks turu tuulelippe Google(GOOG) on miinuses, kuigi turg veel plussis. Ei näita just kuigi head turu tervist hetkel...
  • Akzo - jah, tehniliselt tuleks neid pikaajalisi trendikanaleid jälgida. Aga nagu oleme näinud juba ligemale pool aastat kestnud tõusutrendi puhul, ollakse positiivse sentimendi puhul kõigeks võimelised. Turg võib üllatada ning tehnilised indikaatoreid täiesti ignoreerida - st viibida ekstreemsetel tasemetel. Väljapoole vastupanu murdmist oleks see tõesti positiivseks signaaliks, kuid kindlasti suureneks oluliselt ka müügisurve. Isiklikult tulevikku ennustada ei proovi ning püüan keerulisemate või lihtsamate indikaatorite järgi leida ülemüüdud või liigse kõrgtasemega piirkondi - ekstreemsed piirkonnad, milles statistiliselt küllalt vähe viibitakse. Paraku pelgalt TA'ga läbi ei saa, peab jälgima ka fundamentaalset tausta.
  • Pole ehk õige kohta, aga kas keegi seletaks lahti järgnevad lühendid:
    Cboe
    Amex
    Ise
    Pse
    Phlx
    Arca
    Island
    Box

    Kas tegemist on maakleritega?
  • Kuidas nii... miks eestist tulevad orderid siis CBOE nime all börsile lähevad?
  • Uudis, mis küll päeval välja tuli, kuid aja möödudes vaid tuure kogunud on. Nüüdseks juba ka massimeediakanalites - CNN jagab telefoninumbreid, kuhu reisijad peaksid helistama lisainformatsiooni saamiseks. Kahe lennuki puhul on praegu riskigrupis olevate reisjate arv ca 32 000, kellele British Airways peab võimaldama tervisekontrolli, kui nad seda peaksid soovima. Samuti on uurimise all üks lennnuk veel Moskvas.

    British Airways says very low traces of radioactive substance found on two aircraft in poison probe
  • Jyriado, sinu kasutataval maakleril on CBOE lihtsalt default optsioonibörsiks määratud. Kui tahad mõnele teisele börsile oma orderit panna, siis pead eraldi määrama selle.

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