Börsipäev 1. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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It's going to be hard to find the positive catalyst to move (stocks) higher," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co., referring to Friday's session.
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Hetkel on indektsite futuurid on erivärvides, mis tähendab, et turg avab ilmselt samuti erivärvides. Toornafta hind on peale paripäevast kosumist pisut tagasi andmas ning nagu eile sai graafikul välja toodud, murti eile ülespoole vastupanutaset. Toon mõned huvitavamad tehnilised pildid, mida jälgida:
Foorumites palju kõneainet pakkunud WMT on ka minu silmis muutunud huvitavaks ideeks. Näeme graafikul, et aktsia on teist korda tulnud allapoole 200 päeva libisevast keskmisest. Oktoobri lõpus tehti kiire tõus, tugeva käibega bollingeri ülaserva, peale seda on mõne päeva pärast tulnud gap down, toetatud on 45,93 tasemele ning täna oleme samas punktis tagasi. Iseenesest näitavad indikaatorid, et aktsia on ülemüüdud, STO on neutraalne. Paraku pole enamikest indikaatoritest suurt kasu edasise liikumise prognoosimisel, sest aktsia ei trendi. Seega tuleks vaadata, mida tehakse toetustaseme suhtes. Kui jätta kõrvale indikaatorid, siis ilmselt võiks siit punktis alla liikumise jätkumist oodata.
Huvitav väheneva kolmnurga mustri on teinud AMD. Hetkel on see huvitav volatiilsuse peale mäng, sest oktoobri lõpus tehtud tugevat gap downi on aktsia liikunud stabiilses ning õrnas tõusutrendis. Tavaliselt võib sellise väheneva kolmnurgaga mustri puhul (siin ka väike volatiilsus) tähendada tugeva käibega kitsast kauplemisvahemikust välja murdmist.
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Kuigi detsember on ajalooliselt olnud kõige parem aeg turgudel olemiseks, mil SjaP500 on keskmiselt tõusnud ca 1.7%, on sedapuhku turul liikumas jutud, et tüüpiline aastalõpuralli on võib-olla juba äragi toimunud. Täna ongi detsembrikuu esimene päev algamas negatiivses territooriumis.
Ülespoole avanevad:
ENPT +99% (reports SepQ), ZVUE +16% (announces acquistion of video sharing site), EXTR +7.3% (Lehman upgrade), CLE +7% (to explore strategic alternatives), SONS +5.1% (Lehman upgrade), RNIN +4.6% (extends momentum), TATTF +4.2% (extends yesterday's 9.4% move), TWTC +4.2% (Raymond James upgrade), NEOL +3.8% (SEC terminates investigation), SIX +3.5%, CYH +3.3% (Bear Stearns upgrade), MED +3% (extends yesterday's 12% move), NVAX +2.8%, HD +2.7% (KKR among buyout shops looking at Home Depot - NY Post), DENN +2.4% (reports Nov sales), FCX +1.3%... Under $3: MGRM +13% (Pfizer launches expanded access for Maraviroc), SCO +3.5%.
Allapoole avanevad:
OVTI -12% (reports OctQ; also downgrades from Baird and Longbow), BSQR -11% (profit taking after 22% move yesterday), RAND -8.4% (profit taking after 22% move yesterday), FNSR -7.1% (guides below consensus), SMTC -4.7% (reprots Q3 revs, guides Q4 revs below consensus), XNN -4% (profit taking after 149% move yesterday), KWD -4% (reports OctQ), TATTF -4% (profit taking after 9.4% move yesterday), AHO -2.6%, NDAQ -3.2% (Prudential downgrades to Underperform), BKHM -2.7% (in sympathy with FNSR), ISLE -2.6% (reports OctQ), NVDA -2.5% (receives subpoena from DOJ), HRB -2.1% (reports OctQ), EDS -2% (Prudential downgrade). -
Shark on hoiatamas, et tema nägemus lühiperspektiivis on muutunud/muutumas negatiivsemaks.
The Bearish Side Is Beckoning
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/1/2006 9:00 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"Be cautious, but not too cautious; do not be too much afraid of making a mistake; a man who never makes a mistake will make nothing."
-- John Lubbock
Successful traders have a tendency to be cautious -- they are always focused on protecting their capital and their profits.
But caution can go too far. Traders also have to take big and bold action when they feel they have the odds in their favor. You can't generate gains if you are always timid and take no aggressive action.
I bring up this issue today because I am debating taking a much more aggressive bearish stance. I have been cautious on the long side for a while but not overtly negative, and I'm now thinking the market is very close to some sort of short-term top.
As you can see from the index charts I've posted today at revsharkblog.com, we have had a three-day bounce following the hard hit we took on Monday. To the bulls' advantage there has been higher-than-average volume, especially yesterday, but I believe that may be due in part to end-of-the-month shuffling and repositioning. We are now confronting the highs of last week and that should serve as formidable overhead.
In addition to the charts we have some other factors at work that have me considering a more aggressive bearish posture. The rise in oil and other commodities is a negative for consumers who already are acting in a mixed manner, as we can see from retail same-store sales reports. The dollar and the less than stellar economic data lately are also issues that seem likely to be drags at some point.
Also, as I've discussed, the renewed interest in energy and metals looks like a rotational theme that could have legs. They are pulling back this morning after a big run so we will have a good test of whether there are some bargain hunters lurking.
All those things and a technically extended market are reasons for a more bearish stance. I have yet to act on it to a great degree but I am ready mentally and have my game plan in mind. If I am wrong then I will adjust, but sometimes risking mistakes is the way to go.
We have a flat to positive start to the day as oil drops and overseas markets are mostly higher. Talk of a potential leveraged buyput of Home Depot is giving us some bids but it is pretty quiet out there overall.
At the time of publication, De Porre had no positions in stock mentioned, although holdings can change at any time. -
Kindlasti tasub silma peal hoida valuutaturul, eile õhtul murdis euro läbi 1.32 eur/usd taseme, täna testiti juba 1,33 eur/usd taset.
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The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its overnight interest rate target to 5% from 5.25% in the first quarter of 2007, according to the federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade. The odds of a cut in March moved to 62% from just under 50% following a report from the Institute for Supply Management on Friday that the factory sector contracted in November for the first time in more than three years. The ISM index fell to 49.5%; the Fed has always cut rates when the ISM falls below 50% on a sustained basis. The market is pricing in small odds of a further cut to 4.75% in May.
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Pikaajaline lühikeseksmüügi kauplemisidee Wal-Mart(WMT) sai PRO all täiendava kommentaari, mis seniks meie saaga ettevõtte ümber lõpetab. Tootluse kujunemisest ja väljumispõhjustest tuleks juba sealt lähemalt lugeda.
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Hiljuti alandas Deutsche Bank 4. kvartali real GDP kasvuprognoosi 0% peale ning täna ülteb Morgan Stanley, et majandus on liikumas nõrgema kasvu poole. Kullaaktsiad tugevnevad ning turg on täna nõrgalt käitunud. Järgmine nädal võib tuua veelgi rohkem negatiivseid kommentaare majanduse osas.
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Selline "uudis" veel siis eilsest päevast:
Deutsche Bank AG today announced the launch of Event Loss Swaps (ELS), a new derivative contract that will enable clients to buy or sell protection against the economic impact of U.S. wind or earthquake disasters.
Sellest võib nüüd järeldada, et Ackermann on oma suunale kindlaks jäämas ehk siis rõhku pannakse endiselt kauplemisele. Ettevõttele võib see tähendada paremaid tulemusi kuid suurema tõenäosusega tähendab see murelikke analüütikuid, kes kõrgemale riskile tähelepanu juhivad.
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Aimari postitus: "The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its overnight interest rate target to 5% from 5.25% in the first quarter of 2007, according to the federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade. The odds of a cut in March moved to 62% from just under 50%."
Oskab keegi ehk seletada, kuidas on intresside võimaliku langetamise % kalkauleeritud?
Hetkel fed funds future ZQ (mar07) price 94.845, seega oodatakse, et märtsis on overnight lending rate 5.155% ehk siis 9.5 bsp madalam praegusest tasemest. -
Kas keegi targem inimene oskab öelda, miks toimus MOVI breakout natuke aega tagasi? Uudist ei näe küll kuskil.
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MOVI teeb iga paari nädala tagant selliseid äkilisi liikumisi. Ilmselt mingi kamp ostab sisse ja üritab sellise järsu spikega short squeeze'i tekitada - short interest on 40% lähedal. Reedene päev piisavalt vaikne ja õhuke ka sellisteks asjadeks. Tavaliselt jääb stock paigale natuke kõrgemale spike eelsest tasemest. Mingit eelist ükskõik kummas suunas mängimiseks ei näe.
